Jump to content

Confirmed: Harvey is bullpen only


interloper

Recommended Posts

I think the draft should have less value coming out of it as more players are coming from outside the draft.  But also there are more teams so there is more WAR available.  I doubt they have gotten any better.  

In baseball you have to not only have skill but determination to get better when the going gets tougher.  I doubt that analytics have even touched on the second part.  Who knows how someone will respond when you give them a multi-million dollar signing bonus.  Who's arm and shoulder can take throwing 95 mph 100 pitches a game.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For all the people who complain about WAR, this is WAR's wheelhouse.  How much value has come out of the first round in the last five years?  How much in 1965-70?  How many players in the first round never make it to the majors compared to 30 years ago?  bb-ref and WAR make these kind of questions answerable.  In 1990, no chance, it would have been mostly subjective and ridiculously hard to compile.

Not that I'm volunteering...

I may take a crack at it, but there are several factors in play:

1.    When the draft started in 1965, there were only 20 teams in MLB.    There were no comp picks, so the first five rounds were 100 picks.   Last year, with 30 teams and various competitive balance picks and comp picks, the first five rounds were 167 picks.   

2.    Also, with only 20 teams, there was only 660 WAR (approximately) to spread around the league.    Now there’s 990.    I’m not sure how that cuts when evaluating the draft, or if it matters.    

3.    I think the percentage of foreign players not subject to the draft has increased pretty significantly over time.   So really what you’d need to know to evaluate draft picks is how much WAR was available among draft-eligible players.    

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is it?    I’m optimistic that the O’s will be competitive for most of it.    The 2000’s, now that was a long decade.    

This is the time to be optimistic, and I'm not.  Hopefully, the organization changes my mind by actually doing something impressive by this time next year, but so far... no.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/12/2020 at 5:02 PM, Frobby said:

I may take a crack at it, but there are several factors in play:

1.    When the draft started in 1965, there were only 20 teams in MLB.    There were no comp picks, so the first five rounds were 100 picks.   Last year, with 30 teams and various competitive balance picks and comp picks, the first five rounds were 167 picks.   

2.    Also, with only 20 teams, there was only 660 WAR (approximately) to spread around the league.    Now there’s 990.    I’m not sure how that cuts when evaluating the draft, or if it matters.    

3.    I think the percentage of foreign players not subject to the draft has increased pretty significantly over time.   So really what you’d need to know to evaluate draft picks is how much WAR was available among draft-eligible players.    

 

Something you would also would have to account for is more players going to college.  In 1967 the first 19 picks were high school students.  Lot easier to pick guys who are 21 over guys who are 18. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, atomic said:

Something you would also would have to account for is more players going to college.  In 1967 the first 19 picks were high school students.  Lot easier to pick guys who are 21 over guys who are 18. 

Good point.    I think the exercise is too complex for me to bother.     

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, atomic said:

Something you would also would have to account for is more players going to college.  In 1967 the first 19 picks were high school students.  Lot easier to pick guys who are 21 over guys who are 18. 

It is true that until roughly 1990 college players had a significant advantage over high schoolers.  When Bill James was writing his Abstracts in the 1980s one of his discoveries/rules was that you'd get more value if you just didn't draft high schoolers.  But sometime in the 90s the difference in career value between players picked coming out of high school, and players picked out of college significantly narrowed or completely disappeared

I haven't seen the data in a few years, but circa 2015 scouting and other analytical tools had made the 6-year value numbers nearly the same so the only advantage to college players is that they get here sooner.  And a high schooler just might be providing MLB value when the college guy is still in college. If Manny or Harper or Trout had spent two or three years in college they'd have missed out on 2-3 years of really good play in the majors, not to mention many $millions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...