The Most Hyped Orioles Prospect...

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I remember watching the sports reporters back before Ben signed.  They were discussing the Blue Jays and Orioles pennant race.  One of them opined that the O's would win, since they would sign Ben and his insertion into the ML rotation would be the difference.

Comparable amount of hype when you adjust for era.

That's probably true.

[Frobby]

On 4/14/2020 at 4:00 PM, now said:

That's fine, but don't you think career W-L record has merit as a stat?

 

On 4/14/2020 at 4:02 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it should be completely discounted but it isn't something I put a lot of value in.

The longer the time horizon, the better it is.    Nobody’s going to argue it’s the best stat over any time frame, but career W-L is much better than a one season W-L.   It tells you something about both effectiveness and durability.    Luck is less of a factor over that span.   It tends to filter out park effects because winning 5-4 at OPACY is just as good as winning 3-2 at Tropicana.    Obviously the strength of the team behind you still matters a lot, but overall that’s less likely to be as big a factor over a career than over a season.   

[DrungoHazewood]

On 4/14/2020 at 4:00 PM, now said:

That's fine, but don't you think career W-L record has merit as a stat?

Some, but it's trumped by other metrics.

Allie Reynolds and Jon Lester have about the same W/L records.  182-107 vs 190-108.  By rWAR Lester leads by 45-25.  Reynolds had a 109 ERA+, Lester a 120.

Pedro Martinez was 219-100.  Which isn't terribly different than Bob Lemon's 207-128.  Pedro's ERA+ was 154, Lemon's 119.  Pedro has more than double the WAR.  Subjectively I don't think many folks would put Lemon in the same zip code as Pedro.

CC Sabathia and Bob Feller have almost identical W/L records.  Feller has, at times, been described as one of the best pitchers ever.  Not sure CC is quite in that class.

Juan Marichal and Andy Pettitte have very similar W/L records.  As do Dizzy Dean and Jared Weaver.  And Max Scherzer and Sandy Koufax, or Ron Guidry and Koufax.  Kershaw has more wins and a higher winning percentage than Koufax.  Bartolo Colon and Dennis Martinez nearly identical records.  Orel Hershiser has a better record than Don Drysdale, and so does Mark Buehrle. Milt Pappas had 25 more wins and nearly as high a winning percentage as Cuellar and McNally.  Bronson Arroyo and Don Newcombe had 148 and 149 wins, respectively.

Most people who had 200+ wins were good, durable pitchers.  I wouldn't go much farther than that.

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Some, but it's trumped by other metrics.

Allie Reynolds and Jon Lester have about the same W/L records.  182-107 vs 190-108.  By rWAR Lester leads by 45-25.  Reynolds had a 109 ERA+, Lester a 120.

Pedro Martinez was 219-100.  Which isn't terribly different than Bob Lemon's 207-128.  Pedro's ERA+ was 154, Lemon's 119.  Pedro has more than double the WAR.  Subjectively I don't think many folks would put Lemon in the same zip code as Pedro.

CC Sabathia and Bob Feller have almost identical W/L records.  Feller has, at times, been described as one of the best pitchers ever.  Not sure CC is quite in that class.

Juan Marichal and Andy Pettitte have very similar W/L records.  As do Dizzy Dean and Jared Weaver.  And Max Scherzer and Sandy Koufax, or Ron Guidry and Koufax.  Kershaw has more wins and a higher winning percentage than Koufax.  Bartolo Colon and Dennis Martinez nearly identical records.  Orel Hershiser has a better record than Don Drysdale, and so does Mark Buehrle. Milt Pappas had 25 more wins and nearly as high a winning percentage as Cuellar and McNally.  Bronson Arroyo and Don Newcombe had 148 and 149 wins, respectively.

Most people who had 200+ wins were good, durable pitchers.  I wouldn't go much farther than that.

We have better, more sophisticated stats now.    Back before there were things like ERA+, W-L told you things that ERA and K’s did not.     I also think W-L has become less meaningful as IP per start has shrunk.   

[Redskins Rick]

On 4/9/2020 at 3:34 PM, scOtt said:

I was going to mention Hammond too. I mean, he had a fine ML career, for us and others too. But never reached the hype he was supposed to be.

He has my vote for most hyped.

He was drafted ahead of Derek Jeter.

Was supposed to be a real 5 tool player.

When healthy he was fun to watch. Had a decent career, but nothing compared to what we had hoped.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

He has my vote for most hyped.

He was drafted ahead of Derek Jeter.

Was supposed to be a real 5 tool player.

When healthy he was fun to watch. Had a decent career, but nothing compared to what we had hoped.

So was B.J. Wallace.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

So was B.J. Wallace.

Was Wallace hyped to be a 5 tool guy?

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Was Wallace hyped to be a 5 tool guy?

Since he was a pitcher who got four professional plate appearances I'll guess no.  Lots of people were drafted before lots of better players.

[Redskins Rick]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since he was a pitcher who got four professional plate appearances I'll guess no.  Lots of people were drafted before lots of better players.

I get that too. Jeter dropped a few spots, because of his known love to play for the Yankees, and others were afraid to not be able to sign him.

I only mentioned the 5 tool part for Hammond, because the hype then, was he was going to be a HOF outfielder for the team, and had all the tools.