The Most Hyped Orioles Prospect...

[Win Column]

Lot of those guys were before my time, so for me I’d have to say none other than Bundy. Heck, I remember the numbers almost verbatim: 71 IP, 158 K, 2 ER, 5 BB, consistent 92-97 with an occasional run-up to 100, and a 12-6 CB. Even the “experts” thought we nailed it.

It was almost like Christmas when he finally arrived. I really thought he’d be the anchor of this rotation for ~ a decade. What could have been had his body held up.

Still feels weird he's not on this team anymore.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Lol imagine putting up a 9.3 WAR as a starting pitcher and leading the AL with a 2.53 ERA and not winning the Cy Young...

In '71-73 Wilbur Wood threw 334, 376, and 359 innings, won 22, 24, and 24 games (the 24s leading the league), led the league in ERA+ in '71, and was worth 11.8, 10.7 and 7.5 rWAR, and ever finished higher than 2nd in the Cy Young voting.

In 1990 Roger Clemens went 21-6, led the league in ERA and shutouts, was worth 10.4 WAR, and finished 2nd in the Cy Young to Bob Welch and his 2.9 WAR.

Juan Marichal had seasons of 10.3 and 9.1 wins where he didn't get a single Cy Young vote.  Thanks Sandy Koufax and Dodger Stadium. Dick Ellsworth also fell victim to Koufax with a 10-win season where he went 22-10, 2.11 and go no votes.

In '73 Blyleven had a 9.7-win season with 20 wins, league-leading nine shutouts, led the league in ERA+, and finished 7th in the Cy Young.

Mark Fidrych's famous season where he won 19, led in ERA, complete games, ERA+ and was worth 9.6 wins... 2nd in Cy Young.

It wasn't that long ago that the writers correlated pitcher quality with wins.  If you went 24-8 with a 3.50 you were as likely as not to win the Cy Young over someone who was 21-12 with a 2.21, and definitely would win over someone who was 18-10 with a 1.98.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

True, and it’s not like he wasn’t a good player.   Just not a great one.    

Getting labeled "Mauer with Power" set an impossible bar for Wieters. The expectation became hitting less than .300 with 30 home runs wasn't good enough. 

[jarman86]

21 minutes ago, Win Column said:

Lot of those guys were before my time, so for me I’d have to say none other than Bundy. Heck, I remember the numbers almost verbatim: 71 IP, 158 K, 2 ER, 5 BB, consistent 92-97 with an occasional run-up to 100, and a 12-6 CB. Even the “experts” thought we nailed it.

It was almost like Christmas when he finally arrived. I really thought he’d be the anchor of this rotation for ~ a decade. What could have been had his body held up.

Still feels weird he's not on this team anymore.

I remember being hyped on him.  I was at Dodgers camp wearing an Os hat and got to talking to a pitching coach who said his delivery was concerning and he saw injury in Bundy's future. A week or two later, Bundy went down with his first arm injury and wasn't really the same again imo.

[Just Regular]

Just four years ago, Porcello's 22 wins got him a narrow Cy win over Verlander despite lagging him by 2.5 rWAR.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2016.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, TommyPickles said:

Lol imagine putting up a 9.3 WAR as a starting pitcher and leading the AL with a 2.53 ERA and not winning the Cy Young...

You don't get it McDowell was a real bulldog getting all those wins. It had nothing to do with the White Sox offense being a slightly above league average and the Royals offense ranking dead last. 

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

You don't get it McDowell was a real bulldog getting all those wins. It had nothing to do with the White Sox offense being a slightly above league average and the Royals offense ranking dead last. 

Voting has changed a lot over the past 20 years or so.  McDowell led the league in wins.  But he was 2nd in innings, 11th among qualifiers in ERA, 14th in ERA+, 6th in FIP, and trailed Randy Johnson in strikeouts by 150 (he had 155).  He was 13th among qualifiers in K/BB ratio.

With today's voters Appier would have gotten the award easily.  With some votes going to Johnson for lapping the field in strikeouts.

[Moose Milligan]

24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

With today's voters Appier would have gotten the award easily.  With some votes going to Johnson for lapping the field in strikeouts.

I think Randy Johnson, if he were pitching today, would have a 400 strikeout season.

[atomic]

On 4/9/2020 at 11:13 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Man, I don't envy sportswriters at all during this pandemic.  Trying to come up with new content has to be getting old.  I'd imagine they're going to run out of things to come up with at some point.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29003518/the-most-hyped-prospect-ever-all-30-mlb-teams#BAL

 

For some reason, Jeffrey Hammonds was the first one that came to mind.  I was 8 when they drafted McDonald, certainly remember how good he was supposed to be but I have more vivid memories of people saying Jeffrey Hammonds was going to be, like, Rickey Henderson.

Ben McDonald was definitely the most hyped Orioles prospect of all time.  Really never heard the Jeffrey Hammonds hype.  I think Wieters had a lot more hype than Hammonds every did.  Cal and Eddie both had a lot of hype and came through.  Storm Davis was another guy who hyped a lot locally.  

[DrungoHazewood]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think Randy Johnson, if he were pitching today, would have a 400 strikeout season.

Maybe.  But he probably wouldn't be allowed to throw 260, 270 innings like he sometimes did.  And at even 240 he'd have to have 15 K/9.  Basically Dellin Betances or Josh Hader strikeout rates, but over 240 innings instead of 60 or 70.

While we're musing... the all time K record is Baltimore's own Matt Kilroy who struck out 513 in 1886.  In 583 innings.  To break that mark in 250 innings a pitcher would have to strike out 18.5 per nine.  Chapman once had 17.5 in 54 innings.  Ks keep going up every year.  So... maybe?

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, atomic said:

Really never heard the Jeffrey Hammonds hype.

There was Jeffrey Hammonds hype.  They considered bringing him straight to the majors out of spring training in '93 with no minor league experince.  But, no, he wasn't quite at the level of McDonald.  Maybe more on par with Bundy.  At the time his signing bonus was the highest ever for a college player.

I just opened up a copy of the 1994 Bill James Player Ratings Book, possibly for the first time in 25 years.  The Hammonds comment says "He's been compared to Rickey Henderson, although he doesn't walk.  Which is like saying someone is a flat-chested Dolly Parton."

[BRobinsonfan]

22 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm sure you've heard of Al Spalding, or at least his company.  He quit playing at 26 to start selling stuff to play base ball, and I'm sure he made waaaaay more money going that route.

I don't know... I think he knew his best playing days were behind him when he slipped to a .797 winning percentage in 1876 and could only finish 53 of the 60 games he started.  He could read the handwriting on the wall.

 

[PaulFolk]

On 4/10/2020 at 1:08 AM, orpheus100 said:

Ben McDonald was still good

Wieters was a tragedy

McDonald's career WAR: 20.8

Wieters' career WAR (so far): 18.2

You apparently have a very thin line between "good" and "tragedy."

[spiritof66]

21 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

McDonald's career WAR: 20.8

Wieters' career WAR (so far): 18.2

You apparently have a very thin line between "good" and "tragedy."

In my highly unreliable memory, Wieters was the most-hyped prospect during my Oriole career (1962 to date). While I wouldn't use words like "tragic," I do see a difference. You can blame Ben's falling short of expectations on a variety of things beside lack of talent: too many innings pitched, not enough time in the minors, injuries. Matt just turned out to be not nearly as good, offensively or defensively, as practically everyone expected him to be.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

In my highly unreliable memory, Wieters was the most-hyped prospect during my Oriole career (1962 to date). While I wouldn't use words like "tragic," I do see a difference. You can blame Ben's falling short of expectations on a variety of things beside lack of talent: too many innings pitched, not enough time in the minors, injuries. Matt just turned out to be not nearly as good, offensively or defensively, as practically everyone expected him to be.

That's a problem with expectations. 

When Wieters was a sophomore at Georgia Tech he had a 1.086 OPS.  But on that same team Danny Payne had a 1.083.  Whit Robbins had a 1.063.  Jeff Kindel had a 1.001.  Wes Hodges had a .989.  The team's OPS was .917.

When he was a junior, his last year in college, he had a 1.072.  Payne had a 1.052. Wally Crancer had a .967. 

In 2008 Charlie Blackmon had a 1.033.  Derek Dietrich had a 1.002.

Of all those players Wieters, Dietrich and Blackmon were the only ones to ever appear in the majors.  Blackmon has developed nicely, but also has the advantage of being an outfielder and a Colorado Rockie (Rocky?).  Dietrich has a .761 OPS in the majors, not bad, but he's not a catcher, either.  Whit Robbins never got past AA after being a 4th round pick, Payne was a late 1st rounder in '07 and had 24 PAs above A ball, Kindel washed out in AA, Hodges was a 2nd rounder who had a .704 in AAA.  And Wally Crancer... I'd forgotten he was an Oriole farmhand.  His best year was an .812 OPS with Frederick at 24, and he was out of baseball a year later.

If only Wieters had put up a .780 OPS at Frederick everyone would be so much happier with his career.