2020 1st round pick (2): Heston Kjerstad - OF - (Junior) (Arkansas)

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

For a really long time I've wanted the Os to make projection/model based decisions and I feel like that's exactly what they did here and everyone is upset. I'm willing to be that their projections of Kjerstad's bat exceed the value of Martin's and like many other club's/scouts, they don't think he'll be able to stick in CF or play plus in the middle of the infield. Seems clear with this pick and Westburg that Elias and Sig have a specific plan but it's different than that of the prognosticators. Excited to see how day two pans out.

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

Well, if thescore.com says we did bad, we should definitely get out the pitchforks.

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Well, if thescore.com says we did bad, we should definitely get out the pitchforks.

That’s why they call it Common Wisdom....because it is common...lol

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Well, if thescore.com says we did bad, we should definitely get out the pitchforks.

I'm waiting to see if Pitchfork.com knows the score.

[Big Mac]

Kjerstad had a significantly better K rate than Torkelson this year.  I think it's entirely possible he ends up being a comparable bat at a more premium defensive position.  This pick has grown on me since last night. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Kjerstad had a significantly better K rate than Torkelson this year.  I think it's entirely possible he ends up being a comparable bat at a more premium defensive position.  This pick has grown on me since last night. 

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

[calsmanystances]

In the shortened 2020 season, Arkansas, like everyone else in the conference, did not make it to the SEC schedule. Kjersatd put up his numbers in 16 games against:

 

Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley Conference)-He went 7-12 with 4 HR 10 RBI, 2 walks and 1 k.

Gonzaga (West Coast Conference)-He went 4-16 with 0 HR 1 RBI 3 walks and 4 k's.

Oklahoma (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he went 2-5 (2 singles) 0 RBI 0 walk and 1 K.

Texas(Big 12)- In the 1 game played, he went 3-5 with 1 HR 2 RBI.

Baylor (Big 12)-In the 1 game played, he 2-3 with a 2B  0 RBI no walks no K's.

Illinois St.(Missouri Valley Conference)- In the 1 game played, he went 2-5, 1 RBI no walks no K's.

South Alabama (Sunbelt Conference)-In their 3 game series, he went 5-13 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 1 walk 2 K's.

Grand Canyon (Western Athletic Conference)--2 game series, he went 5-8 with 1 RBI 1 walk and 1 K.

Kjerstad played 2 of his 16 games against ranked teams. OU finished the truncated season 13th. Texas was 22nd.

[Big Mac]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

Yes, we're talking about different things.  One of the big concerns about Kjerstad seemed to be the amount of swing and miss in his game.  I have no doubt Tork will walk more, but maybe their hit tools are closer than the common wisdom would indicate. 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I tend to agree with you...but, of course, the Common Wisdom drumbeat has already started....”losers of Day 1, etc.”

Losers

Baltimore Orioles

Going under slot is always risky, but it paid tremendous dividends for Orioles general manager Mike Elias when he was with the Houston Astros, so you can't blame him. Except ... maybe you can.

Instead of taking the best player available at No. 2 in Martin, the club got creative and selected Heston Kjerstad. That's not necessarily bad, so long as those signing-bonus savings are used elsewhere later in the draft. But when the O's were on the clock at No. 30, they decided not to take the tough-to-sign Jared Kelley and picked shortstop Jordan Westburg instead.

By Elias' own admission, the club was looking to select a pitcher, but some of the Orioles' top targets didn't make it to them, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. That's not a great look.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1976703

 

 

Wilcox and Kelly are still available to sign. And what Elias said could be posturing, you never know. I'm not going to complain about anything until I see the final haul.

[ISU94]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tork had 31 walks, Kjerstad had seven.

Again, Kjerstad is 21. Young players are  generally overaggressive... especially ones with the power of Kjerstad.

Tork also is likely limited to 1B whereas Kjerstad profiles as a RF with the bat to profile there and likely comes with a far lesser $.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Yes, we're talking about different things.  One of the big concerns about Kjerstad seemed to be the amount of swing and miss in his game.  I have no doubt Tork will walk more, but maybe their hit tools are closer than the common wisdom would indicate. 

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

The SEC seems like a substantially tougher conference based off the results from last night. Could factor in the Os projections.

[Big Mac]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I include OBP in my definition of hit tool.  If Tork walks at three times the rate he's going to have more value with the bat.

Okay, I think of hit tool as more pure contact ability but fair enough.  And I do think Tork will have more value with the bat, just speculating maybe it's closer than people think and Kjerstad plays a more valuable defensive position. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

You are comparing sports where in one most picks in the first 3 rounds play at the top level in their rookie seasons, against the other, where most players in the first 3 rounds never make the major leagues.

Also, the slotting system makes a big difference in practice here. We'll see how it plays out, but it may be that the O's pick a few overslot guys tonight.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Big Mac said:

Okay, I think of hit tool as more pure contact ability but fair enough.  And I do think Tork will have more value with the bat, just speculating maybe it's closer than people think and Kjerstad plays a more valuable defensive position. 

Unless Tork somehow can play third.  Ain't holding my breath on that one.