It's time for the OH to turn the page

[Redskins Rick]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that if you read the board over a long period of time that this is a very realistic place about the Orioles fortunes.  There are some posters here who are tremendously optimistic, even in the worst most chaotic years projecting a winning record and an almost immediate turn-around.  There are some who desperately, repeatedly emplored the team to be torn down into its constituent parts and sold off for scrap in the middle of the 2014 pennant race.  But the consensus is pretty solid.  As a group we usually don't get caught up in two week hot streaks or slumps; we have pretty good checks and balances. 

This Oriole team has 50-win talent.  It's a team that was terrible last year, subtracted three major pieces, and only added waiver-wire type players to fill out the squad.

They can be tremendously fun to watch, last night was a heck of a ballgame even if it ended after my bedtime.  And in a bizarro-world 60-game schedule and opponents with stars opting out maybe they somehow back into the 15th or 16th playoff spot, although that's pretty unlikely.  But it doesn't change the fact that this is a team of players with multi-year track records of being one that's essentially tanking.

You don't have to put on blinders and pretend they're something they're not to enjoy their successes.  If the players rely on wildly unrealistic internet commentary to get through the day they have more problems than I thought.

Nice post, and very well done.

[Ripken]

We can turn the page.  To look back for a minute though, just watching 10 minutes of highlights this morning had Hader and Britton getting saves, Turner getting his 1,000th hit, Manny hitting a grand slam, Bundy pitching 7 shutout innings, Villar making a great play, Christian Walker homering and a commercial with Yaz in it.  Thinking about Nick, Cruz, Arrieta, Gaus and others, you could make a pretty darn good team of ex-Os right now.  And Trey is still recovering.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

This Oriole team has 50-win talent.  It's a team that was terrible last year, subtracted three major pieces, and only added waiver-wire type players to fill out the squad.

They can be tremendously fun to watch, last night was a heck of a ballgame even if it ended after my bedtime.  And in a bizarro-world 60-game schedule and opponents with stars opting out maybe they somehow back into the 15th or 16th playoff spot, although that's pretty unlikely.  But it doesn't change the fact that this is a team of players with multi-year track records of being one that's essentially tanking.

You don't have to put on blinders and pretend they're something they're not to enjoy their successes.

I more or less agree with this assessment, but I’m also leaving myself open to the idea that some of our players are improving with experience and coaching.    But it will take a lot more than 15 games for me to distinguish what’s improvement and what’s a hot streak.    Even for guys whose advanced metrics show marked improvement.    

[owknows]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think that if you read the board over a long period of time that this is a very realistic place about the Orioles fortunes.  There are some posters here who are tremendously optimistic, even in the worst most chaotic years projecting a winning record and an almost immediate turn-around.  There are some who desperately, repeatedly emplored the team to be torn down into its constituent parts and sold off for scrap in the middle of the 2014 pennant race.  But the consensus is pretty solid.  As a group we usually don't get caught up in two week hot streaks or slumps; we have pretty good checks and balances. 

This Oriole team has 50-win talent.  It's a team that was terrible last year, subtracted three major pieces, and only added waiver-wire type players to fill out the squad.

They can be tremendously fun to watch, last night was a heck of a ballgame even if it ended after my bedtime.  And in a bizarro-world 60-game schedule and opponents with stars opting out maybe they somehow back into the 15th or 16th playoff spot, although that's pretty unlikely.  But it doesn't change the fact that this is a team of players with multi-year track records of being one that's essentially tanking.

You don't have to put on blinders and pretend they're something they're not to enjoy their successes.  If the players rely on wildly unrealistic internet commentary to get through the day they have more problems than I thought.

Yeah... I guess I wasn't really trying to suggest that everyone wear pom-poms and give a group cheer... just that sometimes we can get a little carried away with being "objective" and so much so that we become anti-fans.  I guess it's a fine line. 

To your point, and to your credit, I thought your post was very reasonable. You don't need to be unreasonably optimistic to enjoy your team's success. But if you become SO pessimistic (particularly when caught up in a personal squabble) that you have nothing good to say, you take away from things.

[owknows]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I more or less agree with this assessment, but I’m also leaving myself open to the idea that some of our players are improving with experience and coaching.    But it will take a lot more than 15 games for me to distinguish what’s improvement and what’s a hot streak.    Even for guys whose advanced metrics show marked improvement.    

I think you're probably on the money. Some of these guys might be better than they were in the past. It's probably a little early to tell. But damn if it isn't fun in the meantime....  and it's been awhile since we could say that.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think you're probably on the money. Some of these guys might be better than they were in the past. It's probably a little early to tell. But damn if it isn't fun in the meantime....  and it's been awhile since we could say that.

Absolutely.     I’m very glad to have some reasons for optimism right now.   

[Dreadnought]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:36 AM, Can_of_corn said:

I think the team is bereft of ML talent and is merely playing reasonably well in a small sample size.  If they somehow get to the playoffs they have no chance to win the WS.

This was the danger of this season being so short and interfering with The Plan.   The Plan is to tank and the success might make the sale of pieces for prospects impossible to implement.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Dreadnought

[owknows]

I think you're right... the original plan has been complicated by many things.

The plan WAS to tank.  And we have done that.  For multiple seasons. Perhaps that was even the plan for this season. But there comes a point where that is no longer the plan. And the rebuilding of the Major League club begins. Are we there yet? I dunno..

Sometimes circumstances (an over-achieving bunch of journeymen) might even modify what were your original plans...  because maybe a few of them can usher in your first wave of Minor League talent at a discount and still make your club competitive. Maybe the future is blossoming now.

This is a pretty savvy front office, Don't be shocked if they're having the same conversations.

Edited August 13, 2020 by owknows

[Sports Guy]

I think it’s wrong to say the plan was to tank the 2020 season.

Its definitely fair to say that about 2019 and it’s fair to say they didn’t try to field the most competitive team in 2020 but I think this team was set up to bring up a lot of young players this year and start to see what they have.  I don’t think that’s the same as tanking.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s wrong to say the plan was to tank the 2020 season.

Its definitely fair to say that about 2019 and it’s fair to say they didn’t try to field the most competitive team in 2020 but I think this team was set up to bring up a lot of young players this year and start to see what they have.  I don’t think that’s the same as tanking.

I disagree.

I think the plan was only to bring up one guy that they thought might be a key piece of the future.  Sure they would have thrown some stuff on the wall to see if anything sticks but mostly the ones they viewed as actual impact prospects wouldn't see action.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree.

I think the plan was only to bring up one guy that they thought might be a key piece of the future.  Sure they would have thrown some stuff on the wall to see if anything sticks but mostly the ones they viewed as actual impact prospects wouldn't see action.

I guess it depends on how you define this.

Rutschman, Hall and GRod weren’t going to see Baltimore in all likelihood.

But Mountcastle, Diaz, Kremer, Akin, Zimmerman, Harvey, Tate, Wells, Lowther and Baumann were all guys who could and would have been up here.  
 

All of them have a chance to be a piece to the next contending team.  Maybe not superstars but solid players.  They were all on cusp of being ready last year, so a little more MiL seasoning and they would have seen Baltimore in 2020.

Its the next step in the rebuilding process. The team didn’t have those types of players to go to in 2019...they did this year.

[Can_of_corn]

MLB.com piece

https://www.mlb.com/news/dwight-smith-jr-responds-orioles-doubters

[allquixotic]

13 hours ago, Ripken said:

We can turn the page.  To look back for a minute though, just watching 10 minutes of highlights this morning had Hader and Britton getting saves, Turner getting his 1,000th hit, Manny hitting a grand slam, Bundy pitching 7 shutout innings, Villar making a great play, Christian Walker homering and a commercial with Yaz in it.  Thinking about Nick, Cruz, Arrieta, Gaus and others, you could make a pretty darn good team of ex-Os right now.  And Trey is still recovering.

Wow, good points on all.

However, it was impossible we could've known about Arrieta's renaissance. Either the coaching here was just atrocious at that time (and/or still is), or he literally just needed a change of scenery, and nothing we could've done keeping him in Baltimore would've helped.

At the time, it felt like keeping Bundy wouldn't help, because having one piece of a puzzle when the 20 other pieces are missing does you little good.

It wouldn't have been possible to keep Manny. The club put their franchise man money behind Chris Davis. The only way we could've signed Manny is if we let Davis walk at the end of 2015, and we didn't. Baltimore just doesn't have that kind of money.

Losing Villar was part of the rebuild plan -- a deliberate move during a realization that the team needed to rebuild hard.

Sure, if we had stayed pat on all these guys, there's a chance that we could be good now. But some of these guys got good because they left the O's organization, and some were flat-out too expensive for us to keep in a mid-market team and with Scott Boras as their agent.

We just got unlucky, I think. Traded a bunch of guys we would've been better-off to keep, and kept the one guy who'd turn out to be one of the worst players in MLB (Davis).

[allquixotic]

14 hours ago, Ripken said:

We can turn the page.  To look back for a minute though, just watching 10 minutes of highlights this morning had Hader and Britton getting saves, Turner getting his 1,000th hit, Manny hitting a grand slam, Bundy pitching 7 shutout innings, Villar making a great play, Christian Walker homering and a commercial with Yaz in it.  Thinking about Nick, Cruz, Arrieta, Gaus and others, you could make a pretty darn good team of ex-Os right now.  And Trey is still recovering.

The other thing to be aware of is that a lot of our current crop of scrappy players, the ones who are winning us games, were claimed on waivers from other teams. So even though we traded, DFA'ed or let walk a bunch of guys who are now good, we also acquired a bunch of guys who are now looking pretty good, at least with the small sample size.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think it’s wrong to say the plan was to tank the 2020 season.

Its definitely fair to say that about 2019 and it’s fair to say they didn’t try to field the most competitive team in 2020 but I think this team was set up to bring up a lot of young players this year and start to see what they have.  I don’t think that’s the same as tanking.

But they are not bringing up a lot of young players to see what they have. How many Orioles have made their career debuts this season? Approximately… None?

We have had debuts, but they’ve all been from waiver wire pick ups and castoffs from other teams.