The deadline is looming...Is Elias done?

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1998 the Orioles had the highest payroll in baseball.  In 2016 the Orioles' payroll was over $150M on revenues of about $250M, one of the higher ratios (if not the highest) in the league

I know you don't like the approach, but your opinion that all savings go into the Angelos yacht fund and will never get spent is just an opinion. 

Sure it is my opinion 

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But, if the trade plan is to stuff as much crap as you can into the system and hope to occasionally get a hit. I’m not sure I like the plan.

Good thing that's not the plan.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Good thing that's not the plan.

Based on the waiver claims and the trade acquisitions so far I’d say it’s a big part of the plan.

I fully expect when it’s said and done we will have gotten nothing out of Villar, Cashner, Milone, and Velasquez. Probably little from Bundy or Bleier We will see about the pitcher plus from Castro. I dont love Smith but some here do and maybe 1 difference maker from the Givens deal.

If your lucky maybe you get 3 major leagues and 1 Allstar from all of that activity.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Thank you but what you quoted isn’t an opinion.  It is a fact.

You said you liked the steals and that he’s a gritty player.  That is what you personally like, which is true.

But neither of things means he’s a better offensive player than Mancini was last year.  That’s also true.

He ranked in the top 30 or so in many of the major categories like wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, slugging, etc...

Thats not to say Villar wasn’t good and you could argue that was more valuable all around because of his base running and playing a more important position.  
 

But there isn’t really much of an argument that Villar was the better offensive player.

 

His game is different than Mancini’s ... in regards to OPS Trey was the better player. But the steal have impact and Villar was certainly a table setter. 
 

Villar was a multi tool weapon last year. His defense is probably the biggest drawback but it’s not his fault that Hyde played him at SS

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Based on the waiver claims and the trade acquisitions so far I’d say it’s a big part of the plan.

I fully expect when it’s said and done we will have gotten nothing out of Villar, Cashner, Milone, and Velasquez. Probably little from Bundy or Bleier We will see about the pitcher plus from Castro. I dont love Smith but some here do and maybe 1 difference maker from the Givens deal.

If your lucky maybe you get 3 major leagues and 1 Allstar from all of that activity.

Don't conflate the teardown part of the rebuild with future phases where they're moving towards contention.  Most of the action today is still offloading more expensive short-term assets while collecting pieces who could be valuable in a few years and surrounding them with an environment where they can have the best chances to succeed.

[El_Duderino]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1998 the Orioles had the highest payroll in baseball.  In 2016 the Orioles' payroll was over $150M on revenues of about $250M, one of the higher ratios (if not the highest) in the league

I know you don't like the approach, but your opinion that all savings go into the Angelos yacht fund and will never get spent is just an opinion. 

The owners haven’t opened the books. There is more revenue than is let on.

[jamalshw]

52 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Based on the waiver claims and the trade acquisitions so far I’d say it’s a big part of the plan.

I fully expect when it’s said and done we will have gotten nothing out of Villar, Cashner, Milone, and Velasquez. Probably little from Bundy or Bleier We will see about the pitcher plus from Castro. I don't love Smith but some here do and maybe 1 difference maker from the Givens deal.

If your lucky maybe you get 3 major leagues and 1 Allstar from all of that activity.

 

Honestly, that would be a pretty good haul for that group of players.

I wasn't enthralled by the Bundy or Villar returns, but the returns this deadline are solid (even without seeing who the PTNL are). Velasquez and Milone were gotten for nothing so to lose them for nothing isn't that big of a deal. Perhaps one of the PTNL turn into a useful piece from those two deals, but even if not, it's basically a wash. We weren't even using Velasquez and Milone being moved opens up chances for Akin and maybe Kremer down the road. I'd honestly rather seem them down the stretch than Milone.

Meanwhile, if we can turn the trio of Bleier, Castro, and Givens into just one a back-end Major League starter (or solid reliever) and a solid regular at 2B, that would be well worth it in my mind.

In the end, the only player dealt that might have been with the Orioles when they start winning again was Castro. I'm okay moving what is essentially one reliever who might be part of the next good Orioles' team for a chance to get a few players with plenty of control who will be part of it.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, El_Duderino said:

The owners haven’t opened the books. There is more revenue than is let on.

Probably.  But Forbes doesn't take the owner's word for it, they do some estimating of their own.  In any case, there is hidden revenue among all teams.  So it's still likely the Orioles ratio of payroll to revenues was among the highest in baseball in '16.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Honestly, that would be a pretty good haul for that group of players.

I wasn't enthralled by the Bundy or Villar returns, but the returns this deadline are solid (even without seeing who the PTNL are). Velasquez and Milone were gotten for nothing so to lose them for nothing isn't that big of a deal. Perhaps one of the PTNL turn into a useful piece from those two deals, but even if not, it's basically a wash. We weren't even using Velasquez and Milone being moved opens up chances for Akin and maybe Kremer down the road. I'd honestly rather seem them down the stretch than Milone.

Meanwhile, if we can turn the trio of Bleier, Castro, and Givens into just one a back-end Major League starter (or solid reliever) and a solid regular at 2B, that would be well worth it in my mind.

In the end, the only player dealt that might have been with the Orioles when they start winning again was Castro. I'm okay moving what is essentially one reliever who might be part of the next good Orioles' team for a chance to get a few players with plenty of control who will be part of it.

Really what I meant was 2 guys play in the majors and 1 Allstar. Here’s the thing .... you either get 1 mlb regular per deal or you lost the trades. All of these guys were MLB players. As I mentioned Milone, Cashner, and Velazquez are throw aways

In the case of Givens, Castro, Bundy, and Bleier you need to end up with the equivalent down the road. Even though I don’t like it, I buy that Villar was moved because they didn’t want to pay him. But you didn’t/don’t move Givens, Bleier, Castro, or Bundy to dump money. Plus if you were happy with a 4 or 5 starter then dump the others guys and keep Bundy.

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Really what I meant was 2 guys play in the majors and 1 Allstar. Here’s the thing .... you either get 1 mlb regular per deal or you lost the trades. All of these guys were MLB players. As I mentioned Milone, Cashner, and Velazquez are throw aways

In the case of Givens, Castro, Bundy, and Bleier you need to end up with the equivalent down the road. Even though I don’t like it, I buy that Villar was moved because they didn’t want to pay him. But you didn’t/don’t move Givens, Bleier, Castro, or Bundy to dump money. Plus if you were happy with a 4 or 5 starter then dump the others guys and keep Bundy.

On average everyone loses half of the trades.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

On average everyone loses half of the trades.

But you can't lose a trade.  Just like if anyone picked after one of your draft picks has a better career your pick was wrong.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Thank you but what you quoted isn’t an opinion.  It is a fact.

You said you liked the steals and that he’s a gritty player.  That is what you personally like, which is true.

But neither of things means he’s a better offensive player than Mancini was last year.  That’s also true.

He ranked in the top 30 or so in many of the major categories like wOBA, wRC+, OPS, ISO, slugging, etc...

Thats not to say Villar wasn’t good and you could argue that was more valuable all around because of his base running and playing a more important position.  
 

But there isn’t really much of an argument that Villar was the better offensive player.

Mancini was clearly the better offensive player even if you factor in baserunning and avoiding double plays:

Villar: 7 Rbat + 7 Rbaser + 3 Rdp = +17 Roffense

Mancini: 31 Rbat - 1 Rbaser - 3 Rdp = +27 Roffense

Of course, that does not include positional adjustment or defense.    But that wasn’t the question.   
 

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But you can't lose a trade.  Just like if anyone picked after one of your draft picks has a better career your pick was wrong.

That's the fun of the draft.  It's a nihilist's dream.  Unless you pick Ken Griffey Jr at #1, everyone is always stupid and wrong. 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Don't conflate the teardown part of the rebuild with future phases where they're moving towards contention.  Most of the action today is still offloading more expensive short-term assets while collecting pieces who could be valuable in a few years and surrounding them with an environment where they can have the best chances to succeed.

Really? Nothing that we traded wasn't overly expensive.