Szymborski on Orioles progress

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The common issue with most of these guys is a poor BA.  These numbers change if they can outperform those BA totals.

That being said, Mountcastle is the only one I think he’s off on.

The average major leaguer in 2020 hits .244.  There are eight teams hitting under .230, and the Reds are hitting .213.  In essence all the Reds are Rob Deer.

At .255 the Orioles are the Rod Carew of the AL.

I hope Mountcastle out-hits the .260s they're projecting, but that's already 20 points or more above average. My problem with the projections is that everyone seems to have a K:BB ratio of like 140:30. It's hard to score runs when your team OBP is .295.

[Aglets]

41 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The average major leaguer in 2020 hits .244.  There are eight teams hitting under .230, and the Reds are hitting .213.  In essence all the Reds are Rob Deer.

At .255 the Orioles are the Rod Carew of the AL.

I hope Mountcastle out-hits the .260s they're projecting, but that's already 20 points or more above average. My problem with the projections is that everyone seems to have a K:BB ratio of like 140:30. It's hard to score runs when your team OBP is .295.

After a fun ride early we now have the fewest runs scored in the AL East,  10th in the AL overall.  Seems like maybe some lovely reversion-to-the-norm action going on for some of these guys.    I actually think that's a good thing in a way (not that I think Elias is dumb enough to be persuaded by SSS - quite the opposite) as it shows that there is still some definite work yet to do at a few positions. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Aglets said:

After a fun ride early we now have the fewest runs scored in the AL East,  10th in the AL overall.  Seems like maybe some lovely reversion-to-the-norm action going on for some of these guys.    I actually think that's a good thing in a way (not that I think Elias is dumb enough to be persuaded by SSS - quite the opposite) as it shows that there is still some definite work yet to do at a few positions. 

The idea that the Orioles had one of the better offenses in the league was always kind of fanciful.  About a month ago they had six or seven regulars or semi-regulars out-hitting their career marks by 200 points of OPS.  It was a lock that most of those were going to regress hard.

[Lucky_13]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see how Mullins means more to the future than Nunez or Sisco.

I can envision Mullins having a role on a competitive team.  Nunez and Sisco not so much.

I think Nunez is moved in the offseason anyway

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I can envision Mullins having a role on a competitive team.  Nunez and Sisco not so much.

I think Nunez is moved in the offseason anyway

Not sure how anyone can see a role for Mullins but not Sisco.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure how anyone can see a role for Mullins but not Sisco.

You have to have a strong bias towards defense.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, now said:

Talk about "lack of imagination..." -- I'm talking about the ZiPS figures, not Szymborski or the Orioles. Hardly seems worth running the projections over five years if there's so little variation from year to year for each of those players. Maybe I'm just spoiled by wildly fluctuating careers in baseball sim games... or reality itself.

This.. Anyone talking anything from those ZIP projections are setting themselves up for a lot of grief for no reason. It's ridiculous to think players stay so even over a 4 year stretch. 

I've never been a ZIPs guy so I'll admit that upfront, and I also take a lot more out of the statcast info then I do the Fangraph projections.

His evaluations are pretty solid overall on the players though there is absolutely no way Mountcastle should ever see 3B again on any kind of regular basis. His arm action and lack of overall arm strength would make him a game changingly (new word lol) bad 3B at the major league level. He's fine at 1B but I'd like to see him get everyday work in LF to see if he can improve on his poor stat cast numbers that suggest he's a well below average defender when it comes to range.

I think Santander's OBP is low on the ZIp projections. It improved this year and at 25-years old, I expect that number to continue to rise. 

 

 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

58 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This.. Anyone talking anything from those ZIP projections are setting themselves up for a lot of grief for no reason. It's ridiculous to think players stay so even over a 4 year stretch. 

I've never been a ZIPs guy so I'll admit that upfront, and I also take a lot more out of the statcast info then I do the Fangraph projections.

The projections are probably fairly accurate on a macro level and fairly inaccurate at the micro level. If you project everyone to be a .260 hitter and half of them are .220 hitters and half are .300 hitters, you would be right on average but wrong on every individual. As others have said, probably not worth getting too wrapped up in these ZIPs projections for young guys without track records as some guys will outperform and stay, while others will underperform and be replaced.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, now said:

Talk about "lack of imagination..." -- I'm talking about the ZiPS figures, not Szymborski or the Orioles. Hardly seems worth running the projections over five years if there's so little variation from year to year for each of those players. Maybe I'm just spoiled by wildly fluctuating careers in baseball sim games... or reality itself.

A system like Zips takes available data, mostly recent MLB performance, and in some cases minor league performance, and adds in aging of some sort.  In most cases aging effects aren't dramatic, a player at 27 might be 10% or 15% more productive than they were at 23 or 24.  Individual components like homers or stolen bases will contribute to that, but will also not dramatically change year-to-year.

In real life we see the impacts of injury, playing time, changes in environment (parks, balls), along with random variation.  If you wanted Zips to look more like real life you could add +/- 15% random numbers to each component projection.  They'd look more realistic, but probably be less accurate.

Another thing that most projection systems do is apply a playing time reduction to account for injury.  But it can't be distributed correctly since most injuries are random.  So you end up with everyone getting 25 games off from injury, when in reality some players miss zero games and some miss 140, with a median of 25.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The idea that the Orioles had one of the better offenses in the league was always kind of fanciful.  About a month ago they had six or seven regulars or semi-regulars out-hitting their career marks by 200 points of OPS.  It was a lock that most of those were going to regress hard.

Yep, it was to be expected.   Playing the Red Sox (5.80 ERA) in Fenway may help.   

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

I can envision Mullins having a role on a competitive team.  Nunez and Sisco not so much.

I think Nunez is moved in the offseason anyway

Nunez is a DH with a 110 OPS+, or about that.

Kendrys Morales has spent 13 years in the majors as a DH with a 111 OPS+ and has played in four postseasons.

Mark Trumbo was basically a DH with a 1000-game career and a 108 OPS+.  Played on some good teams.

Billy Butler won a World Series as a DH with a 96 OPS+, 116 for his career.

From 2013-18 Victor Martinez was a DH with a 112 OPS+, played in a couple postseasons.

Evan Gattis, DH with a 111 OPS+, played in four postseasons.

Teams may not want their DH to have a 110 OPS+, but in reality that's about average for one. 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nunez is a DH with a 110 OPS+, or about that.

Kendrys Morales has spent 13 years in the majors as a DH with a 111 OPS+ and has played in four postseasons.

Mark Trumbo was basically a DH with a 1000-game career and a 108 OPS+.  Played on some good teams.

Billy Butler won a World Series as a DH with a 96 OPS+, 116 for his career.

From 2013-18 Victor Martinez was a DH with a 112 OPS+, played in a couple postseasons.

Evan Gattis, DH with a 111 OPS+, played in four postseasons.

Teams may not want their DH to have a 110 OPS+, but in reality that's about average for one. 

That is all true.  However,  when the O's have Mancini and Mountcastle at DH/1B plus Santander, Stewart, Hays, and Mullins in the OF.  With Diaz coming soon.  There are not many at bats for Nunez whether he is average or not.

[AnythingO's]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That is all true.  However,  when the O's have Mancini and Mountcastle at DH/1B plus Santander, Stewart, Hays, and Mullins in the OF.  With Diaz coming soon.  There are not many at bats for Nunez whether he is average or not.

Diaz will not be up on opening Day, maybe mid-season. You need Hays and Mullins to cover CF due to injury risk and weak offensive performance. Mountcastle will be given every chance to improve reads and jumps in LF. When Diaz does show up he will beat out Santander for RF then you decide to move Santander to LF and Mountcastle to 1B or not. You can't plan on Mancini being there next year, odds are long. It won't be Mountcastle at 1B until and unless he fails to improve in LF. Stewart will go to DH or bench

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure how anyone can see a role for Mullins but not Sisco.

 

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have to have a strong bias towards defense.

I actually am with Wildcard here. 

There is always a role on a team for an extra OF. Sisco’s offensive value is more OBP than anything. How many backup C’s are bat first?  

Sisco isn’t going anywhere for awhile but unless MLB adds roster spots and/or we start carrying 12 pitchers I don’t see a great fit. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

Diaz will not be up on opening Day, maybe mid-season. You need Hays and Mullins to cover CF due to injury risk and weak offensive performance. Mountcastle will be given every chance to improve reads and jumps in LF. When Diaz does show up he will beat out Santander for RF then you decide to move Santander to LF and Mountcastle to 1B or not. You can't plan on Mancini being there next year, odds are long. It won't be Mountcastle at 1B until and unless he fails to improve in LF. Stewart will go to DH or bench

Nunez does not look to have a long term future here. He isn’t bad but his glove adds no value and he is probably at his peak offensively. They may keep him next year because they aren’t sure about Mancini but I can’t see him here 2/3 years from now.