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How many games will the O's play in 2021?

wildcard

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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From Sportico:

The World Series has been attended by close to 11,500 fans a game, but those numbers are not enough to offset revenue losses if that’s the maximum number attending games next season. Due to the surging pandemic in the U.S. and Canada, ballparks in New York and California would still be closed to fans in 2021 because of state health and safety rules.

“I think the one thing we’ve learned is that COVID is a really unpredictable virus,” Manfred said. “We don’t know what’s next. But at this point it’s just impossible to speculate what next year’s going to look like. We’ll just have to get closer and then we’ll make the best decisions we can.”

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2020/mlb-debt-2020-manfred-1234615474/

 

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would guess 162. I doubt we see full stadiums any time soon, but they should be able to play games and draw TV revenue now that testing is already set up and more is known about the disease. 

What TV revenue?

The TV networks pay what they pay for postseason games.   National coverage of regular season games does nothing but fill air time and gets very low ratings.   In a typical season a nationally televised NFL preseason game will get higher ratings than nearly any regular season MLB game.   Fox & TBS pays MLB for the All Star Game and the postseason, they would probably not care if they didn't broadcast any regular season games because no one watches them.   Most baseball fans watch their local team every day.   ESPN is the same except that they do need something to fill programming hours on their networks so they have a little more motivation to broadcast regular season games.   But for the most part, the national TV contracts exist for the postseason.   And MLB knows it so they will try to have as short a season possible because they know Fox & company will still ante up almost as much.   Cut the season in half and Fox will still pay 90% of what they pay now because all they really want is to broadcast the big games in October.

Yes, the local TV revenue exists.   Except in a lot of cases (Balt/Wash, NYY, Bos, many others) it's a team owned network paying the team for the games, so it's just a paper transaction.

A higher chunk of MLB revenue comes from actual attendance than any other major sport.   So it's the one sport where the owners have a strong motivation for a shorter season.  

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

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Count me as somewhat pessimistic that they will play a full season next year.   If owners can’t fill the stands without restriction, they will have incentive to make the season as short as they can while still earning TV playoff money.   I don’t think a vaccine will have been widely distributed by April, though hopefully at least a substantial portion of the most vulnerable population will have had one.   And regardless of who is President, the numbers won’t turn around overnight.    They are getting worse right now and my gut instinct is that they’ll continue to get worse over the next few months, particularly with families wanting to be together over the holidays.

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accinfo All-Star

accinfo

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I think the owners are not going to commit to playing games until they know fans can attend.  You have to figure that the teams in New York and California have the best attendance and that is where the local governments are going to be the slowest to allow fans to attend.  I also think sports teams and concert venues may allow fans that have shown they have been vaccinated.  We may all need to get a vaccinated tag just like my Golden Retriever.  LOL.  No the government can't mandate we become vaccinated but private business can.  I  wouldn't have a problem with it.  I have spoken to several people who say they will never take a vaccine especially the first one and that is everyone's choice.  If it gets me back the game and concert arena I am fine with it.  

Roch has mentioned in a couple articles that he keeps hearing a delay in the season etc.  He is hearing it from someone in the know I am sure.  

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ChipTait Major Leaguer

ChipTait

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Florida is still a COVID nightmare, so I’m not sure how they could have any semblance of a normal spring training.  How many players participate in spring training (ML and MiL combined?). Could teams quarantine all of those players?  Would the players agree to live like that?

Until there’s a trusted vaccine, I can’t imagine anything close to a full season like we had in the Before Times.

I think 2021 may look more like 2020 than 2019.  Best case scenario would be around 90 games, beginning in June, IF we have a reliable vaccine by April.

What are the NBA and NHL planning? Baseball is the only sport I follow.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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48 minutes ago, ChipTait said:

Florida is still a COVID nightmare, so I’m not sure how they could have any semblance of a normal spring training.  How many players participate in spring training (ML and MiL combined?). Could teams quarantine all of those players?  Would the players agree to live like that?

Until there’s a trusted vaccine, I can’t imagine anything close to a full season like we had in the Before Times.

I think 2021 may look more like 2020 than 2019.  Best case scenario would be around 90 games, beginning in June, IF we have a reliable vaccine by April.

What are the NBA and NHL planning? Baseball is the only sport I follow.

In ancient history teams used to train in spring in the Carolinas, Hot Springs Arkansas, Texas, or just in gyms in their home towns.  Yes, that was primitive baseball.  But if Florida and Arizona become the equivalent of Fukushima Exclusion Zones baseball will figure something out.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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1 hour ago, ChipTait said:

Florida is still a COVID nightmare, so I’m not sure how they could have any semblance of a normal spring training.  How many players participate in spring training (ML and MiL combined?). Could teams quarantine all of those players?  Would the players agree to live like that?

Until there’s a trusted vaccine, I can’t imagine anything close to a full season like we had in the Before Times.

I think 2021 may look more like 2020 than 2019.  Best case scenario would be around 90 games, beginning in June, IF we have a reliable vaccine by April.

What are the NBA and NHL planning? Baseball is the only sport I follow.

They just had fall instructional league there.   

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