The math of tanking

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-diminishing-but-positive-returns-of-tanking/

Thia article suggests tanking works, but the strategy becomes less effective when multiple teams are doing it.    Seems like the divide comes at 5+ teams tanking at once.   
 

[Sports Guy]

This makes a lot of assumptions..particularly the one that says the talent you acquire is both very good and that you develop it correctly.  Also, that when you are in position to win, you sign FA correctly.

But it’s an interesting article about why you should tear it down to begin with.  

[DrungoHazewood]

Interesting.  I'm sure you can quibble with his assumptions, but it does layout a framework can justify what the O's have been doing.

I like that one of his solutions to tanking is to eliminate the draft and go to a bonus pool setup.  I've long advocated for a system like that, with the bonus pool being determined by market size and efficiency.  Something like reverse order of Nielsen Market size, or metro population times average area income, perhaps with teams bumped one way or the other by performance relative to market.

So the O's, Pirates, Brewers, Reds... they get something like $20M to spend on amateurs.  The Yanks, Dodgers, Sox, they get like $5M.  The Cards would love it, they have about the same market as the O's and Pirates, but have always punched way above their weight in on-field performance.