Orioles not likely to bid on Ha-Seong Kim

[Roll Tide]

From Mewleski via MLBTR.com
 

 

• Quote

  Since Ha-Seong Kim is only entering his age-25 season, there has been some thought that his market could extend to teams who might still be at least a year away from contending (the Rangers, for example, are known to have interest).  However, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski thinks “it sure seems unlikely” that the Orioles will make a bid for Kim since the O’s don’t seem to be planning any major expenditures.  Between contract and posting fee, MLBTR projects Kim to cost around $47.625MM this offseason, so Baltimore may not feel like making such an investment at this stage in its rebuild.

   

[Roll Tide]

I think this is as good as any place to take a shot. It’s not as if the deal breaks the bank. He’s young and can be under 30 when we compete. If someone else develops then he can be dealt for other pieces. Adding a top talent that only costs money is desirable. The only con is he might not be what’s being projected. IMO that the risk you take with any free aren’t or international talent. After pissing away money on Davis and Trumbo this gamble would be smaller and the guy plays a premium position 

[hoosiers]

So, to clarify, the initial investment is not $48M.  The expected posting fee is around $8M and the contract is projected at $40M for five years.  So, 2021 cost would be around $15M (assuming some ramp up in the annual contract cost) to $20M if the posting fee goes higher.   This cost seems reasonable for the projected production though we are talking about funds the Os may not be able to afford in 2021.  We could try to move Cobb and Mancini to free up $.  Depends on how we evaluate Kim.

[DrungoHazewood]

I've mentioned some of these things before, but:

a. Ha-Seong Kim is 25 and has been playing in a league whose overall quality is probably about AA level, with a wider spread in talent and ages.

b. Kim's 2020 was his best season in Korea with a .921 OPS.

c. The KBO's run context is about 5 runs/team/game.  Kiwoom was right in the middle.  About half a run higher than MLB.

d. Byung Ho Park has had OPSes in Korea over 1.000 four times.  In the majors he hit .191/.275/.409.

e. Hyun Soo Kim had almost the same slash line as Ha-Seong Kim in Korea last year and has comparable career numbers.  His MLB OPS was .719.

f. Jose Miguel Fernandez had a .901 OPS in the KBO last year.  His MLB OPS is .697.

g. Roberto Ramos had a .954 OPS for LG at 25 last year.  He had a .980 OPS at high-altitude Albuquerque in '19 but has never played in the majors.

h. Aaron Altherr had an .893 OPS in Korea last year.  His MLB OPS is .708.

To me this looks like a rough translation for a KBO player is to knock off 200 points of OPS or so.  Meaning Ha-Seong Kim is likely a .700ish OPS player.  He's started playing some third base the last few years, so I'm not sure he's a MLB SS.  So I'd be wary of getting into a $50M bidding war for someone who currently looks a bit better than Rio Ruiz, or maybe like Jurickson Profar or David Fletcher.  There may be some upside or growth, but he was about the 11th-best hitter in the KBO in 2020.

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, hoosiers said:

So, to clarify, the initial investment is not $48M.  The expected posting fee is around $8M and the contract is projected at $40M for five years.  So, 2021 cost would be around $15M (assuming some ramp up in the annual contract cost) to $20M if the posting fee goes higher.   This cost seems reasonable for the projected production though we are talking about funds the Os may not be able to afford in 2021.  We could try to move Cobb and Mancini to free up $.  Depends on how we evaluate Kim.

What do you think his projected production is?

[Sports Guy]

Yea, it’s obvious they won’t bid on him and I think that’s the right call.  Not just based off of what Drungo said but also because the Os have been accumulating a lot of SS/MI type talent.  I don’t see the need to lock into a long term deal and block those guys at this point.  If they aren’t looking like SS or even MLers after this season, go ahead and make a run at one of the SS in next years FA class.

As someone who wants to see a better product on the field, this would be an example of hurting yourself long term to do that.  I don’t want that.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Fangraphs' Depth Chart projection has Kim as a .244/.322/.417 hitter, presumably in a neutral MLB context.  Also has him as something like an average MLB shortstop, and overall a 2-win player.  But I don't know how they came up with the defense.  That's what this hinges on: if he can play short in the majors he should be an average regular.  If he's forced to 2b/3b he's a glorified Rio Ruiz.

[hoosiers]

I would think the downside is Kim averaging. 5 WAR, the likely production around 1-1.5 WAR and perhaps some upside to those numbers.  I would need to see more analysis on Kim to have a more definitive opinion.  Kim is younger and has more upside than the guys in the comps above.  I could see Kim w an OPS around 725-760 w some upside. 

[hoosiers]

Agree w Drungo that the defensive profile is a big factor regarding my interest.  My interest is w Kim playing a solid SS.

[Can_of_corn]

Have the O's ever participated in a posting from Japan or Korea?

Not won, even made an offer.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm glad they're not interested.  

Moving on...

[jamalshw]

I would assume they've done their due diligence on him, and given their apparent lack of interest, I would expect the Orioles projections on what he is doesn't merit the cost. To me, based on what little information is available to us, I would say it seems he's most likely to come over and be, at best, a serviceable player. I'm not sure the nearly $50M over five years would make the investment worthwhile.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I would assume they've done their due diligence on him, and given their apparent lack of interest, I would expect the Orioles projections on what he is doesn't merit the cost. To me, based on what little information is available to us, I would say it seems he's most likely to come over and be, at best, a serviceable player. I'm not sure the nearly $50M over five years would make the investment worthwhile.

Right, like when they declined to participate in the Ohtani posting.

The Darvish posting.

The Tanaka posting.

The Ryu posting.

 

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm glad they're not interested.  

Moving on...

Seconded - I want a better SS even for the early Rutschman teams, and his contract term may go to Peak Rutschman teams.

I'm very much on Tejada: Next Generation and hoping for the Meatloaf 2 out of 3 on Gunnar/Westburg/Mayo in time for the dirt, even if we keep it all on the sidelines until '23 for more info on whether anyone currently in the org can truly handle SS.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've mentioned some of these things before, but:

a. Ha-Seong Kim is 25 and has been playing in a league whose overall quality is probably about AA level, with a wider spread in talent and ages.

b. Kim's 2020 was his best season in Korea with a .921 OPS.

c. The KBO's run context is about 5 runs/team/game.  Kiwoom was right in the middle.  About half a run higher than MLB.

d. Byung Ho Park has had OPSes in Korea over 1.000 four times.  In the majors he hit .191/.275/.409.

e. Hyun Soo Kim had almost the same slash line as Ha-Seong Kim in Korea last year and has comparable career numbers.  His MLB OPS was .719.

f. Jose Miguel Fernandez had a .901 OPS in the KBO last year.  His MLB OPS is .697.

g. Roberto Ramos had a .954 OPS for LG at 25 last year.  He had a .980 OPS at high-altitude Albuquerque in '19 but has never played in the majors.

h. Aaron Altherr had an .893 OPS in Korea last year.  His MLB OPS is .708.

To me this looks like a rough translation for a KBO player is to knock off 200 points of OPS or so.  Meaning Ha-Seong Kim is likely a .700ish OPS player.  He's started playing some third base the last few years, so I'm not sure he's a MLB SS.  So I'd be wary of getting into a $50M bidding war for someone who currently looks a bit better than Rio Ruiz, or maybe like Jurickson Profar or David Fletcher.  There may be some upside or growth, but he was about the 11th-best hitter in the KBO in 2020.

So bid what you are willing to go and drop if it gets ridiculous.