Szymborski: John Means could be a no. 2 starter

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m good with unreasonable but thanks.

y said:

Cant imagine you get it done for less than 6/50 and that may be a deal he doesn’t sign.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Also on Keuchel, his first Free Agent contract with Atlanta wasn't signed until June 7, 2019.   I believe that was Keuchel holding out for what he believed he was worth, and the 30 clubs looking at a late bloomer without stellar FIP (Cy Young Award and all) and saying meh.

Now Means flashed stellar FIP in September and that and the velo is what is so exciting, but until there's more evidence Driveline and Driveline-adjacent gainers can hold their hotter stuff for several seasons, I'm in no rush for long term commitments.   

I don't doubt that novel tech is allowing pitchers to routinely attain greater heights now, but don't know how long that max performance can sustain.  Some of why I feel generally good about Sig is the former sleep specialty thing; as a broad strategy I would guess the Orioles are thinking more about that kind of stuff than some other clubs.

With no CBA, no knowledge of how the abbreviated 2020 echoes into every pitcher's 2021, I tend to think the only pitcher extensions clubs would agree to now would be even more team friendly than they normally are.

If they show it, I think DL Hall, Grayson and Gunnar are our first good test cases of will we be more proactive seeking options on FA years of future stars?  Hopefully next spring with a nice long CBA in place that makes some sense.

I'm hopeful it's Mountcastle.  But I don't expect the O's to assume the risks and instead I think they will play it safe.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

What I posted is realistic to what I think he would want.

Again, he should make at least 20M in his 3 arbitration years.  That means for those 3 free agency years, he is signing a 3/30 deal.  
 

That’s not much money to pay for a quality starter nowadays.  He would certainly get way more than that if he pitches at his 2019 level.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Conservatively, I think he makes 3/7/10 in his arb years if he continues to pitch at a level similar to 2019 and 2020.

If he establishes that 2019 is his norm, he makes more than that and gets 18-25m in his free agency years.

I think $3/$7/10 is a little aggressive (especially the latter two) but not wildly so.   Take Jon Gray for example.   He made $2.935 mm in Arb 1, followed that with a 4.1 rWAR season but he only got raised to $5.6 mm.    Not many pitchers see their salary more than double in Arb 2.    Syndergaard earned $2.975 mm in Arb 1, had a 4.1 rWAR season and got a raise to $6.0 mm.   That’s more than double, but just barely.   

But the main thing, as I said, is that teams get a discount for offering a multi-year guarantee during the years when a player has no security.   
 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think $3/$7/10 is a little aggressive (especially the latter two) but not wildly so.   Take Jon Gray for example.   He made $2.935 mm in Arb 1, followed that with a 4.1 rWAR season but he only got raised to $5.6 mm.    Not many pitchers see their salary more than double in Arb 2.    Syndrgaard earned $2.975 mm in Arb 1, had a 4.1 rWAR season and got a raise to $6.0 mm.   That’s more than double, but just barely.   

But the main thing, as I said, is that teams get a discount for offering a multi-year guarantee during the years when a player has no security.   
 

Yes, I’m aware that are supposed to get a discount but what you are asking for is a lot more of a discount that I think is reasonable.

You said 4/14.  How do you see that money being spread out?  Are you including this year?  If so, you already have him signed for this year, so the only reason to include this year is that you are ripping up the contract and giving him a little more money in 2021.  
 

And even if he doesn’t get 7M in year 2, he’s still getting 5-6 and if he continues to pitch at a high level (or higher), he would get more than 10M in his last year.  So, I stand by what I said that if you are him and you continue to pitch at the level he showed in 2019 (or better) that you will bet that you can make at least 20M in those 3 years. 
 

Again, this would likely be his only big deal he will ever sign.  I don’t think he takes some huge discount knowing that.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, I’m aware that are supposed to get a discount but what you are asking for is a lot more of a discount that I think is reasonable.

You said 4/14.  How do you see that money being spread out?  Are you including this year?  If so, you already have him signed for this year, so the only reason to include this year is that you are ripping up the contract and giving him a little more money in 2021.  
 

And even if he doesn’t get 7M in year 2, he’s still getting 5-6 and if he continues to pitch at a high level (or higher), he would get more than 10M in his last year.  So, I stand by what I said that if you are him and you continue to pitch at the level he showed in 2019 (or better) that you will bet that you can make at least 20M in those 3 years. 
 

Again, this would likely be his only big deal he will ever sign.  I don’t think he takes some huge discount knowing that.

I think he realizes this might be his only chance to sign a big deal. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think he realizes this might be his only chance to sign a big deal. 

Sure, which is why I think he would sign..but he’s not taking the massive pay cut Frobby is suggesting.  It just doesn’t make sense.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, which is why I think he would sign..but he’s not taking the massive pay cut Frobby is suggesting.  It just doesn’t make sense.

Well, going back to your initial post, you said you wouldn't try to sign him long term.   I said that as always it depends on price.    I gave you a contract I would have the Orioles sign, and one that I wouldn't, just to draw some boundaries.    There could be a deal in the middle of that range that I'd do.    

I think Means would be much cheaper to sign right now than he will be in a year if he has a good season.   The 6/$50 mm you suggested might be a reasonable contract a year from now.    Right now, it's much more than Means is likely to demand, IMO.   

So I think where we are is that there is some deal with Means you would sign, and its north of my numbers, but you don't think Means would do it.   

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, going back to your initial post, you said you wouldn't try to sign him long term.   I said that as always it depends on price.    I gave you a contract I would have the Orioles sign, and one that I wouldn't, just to draw some boundaries.    There could be a deal in the middle of that range that I'd do.    

I think Means would be much cheaper to sign right now than he will be in a year if he has a good season.   The 6/$50 mm you suggested might be a reasonable contract a year from now.    Right now, it's much more than Means is likely to demand, IMO.   

So I think where we are is that there is some deal with Means you would sign, and its north of my numbers, but you don't think Means would do it.   

I wouldn’t sign Means to a 6/50 deal.  It could be a mistake not to but I’m not interested in it.

I just don’t see how he would ever be interested in the deal you are suggesting.

If Means pitches to a #2 level this year, he will want more than 6/50 imo.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Depends on how much he wants to get on himself.  If he establishes himself as a #2 starter and stays a #2, he will make at least 50M the next 4 years.

Yes... IF

And there is not a font large enough to express that word appropriately.

If he has a #2 performance this year, we can talk.

But I agree with those who have mentioned his age and sample size as caveats.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes... IF

And there is not a font large enough to express that word appropriately.

If he has a #2 performance this year, we can talk.

But I agree with those who have mentioned his age and sample size as caveats.

But your point that he would be stupid to turn down the contract is wrong.  Players bet on themselves all the time.  He certainly could do that and if he does and he gets to the level I’m sure he believes he can get to, he will make way more than 50M in those 6 seasons.

I personally would guess that he would sign the deal but it wouldn’t surprise me if he said no.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Means only has 2 years of service time.    An extension decision is years away.

That's what the O's said for Machado.

Seriously, the O's need to copy the Rays and start extending players pre-arbitration.  The O's can't afford to extend players (who are good enough to extend) their last year before free agency.

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But your point that he would be stupid to turn down the contract is wrong.  Players bet on themselves all the time.  He certainly could do that and if he does and he gets to the level I’m sure he believes he can get to, he will make way more than 50M in those 6 seasons.

I personally would guess that he would sign the deal but it wouldn’t surprise me if he said no.

A lot depends on (1) the personality of the player, and (2) personal circumstances.   You mentioned earlier the difference between Acuna and Tatis.   Tatis is the son of a major leaguer who made almost $18 mm.   He could afford to take an aggressive stance and bear the risk of injury, etc. over the next few years if the Padres wouldn’t pay him — his family isn’t counting on him.   Acuna is probably in a very different circumstance and locking in $100 mm is plenty to massively change the lives of himself and anyone he cares about.    I don’t know anything about his family but odds are very high that they were pretty poor.    So, that’s a very different dynamic.   And, it may be that Acuna is just a very risk averse person.    It’s very likely that he left a lot of money on the table, but I think he’ll scrape by.   

[HowAboutThat]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But your point that he would be stupid to turn down the contract is wrong.  Players bet on themselves all the time.  He certainly could do that and if he does and he gets to the level I’m sure he believes he can get to, he will make way more than 50M in those 6 seasons.

I personally would guess that he would sign the deal but it wouldn’t surprise me if he said no.

Yes, that’s true, the reason I said it was stupid for both parties is because if Means does really do well, he’s going to make a ton more than that, but if he doesn’t, the team is going to be wasting Ubaldo/Cobb money.

If he does well at the end of the season, both sides will have more clarity, and it is arguable that the Orioles will have more leverage because more of their pitchers will have developed into known quantities, so Management could say,”Well, Means is splendid, But so are X,Y and Z, So we can trade Means, let somebody else worry about extending him, And forge a head with our excellent stable of pre-arbitration guys.”

And actually, given my known opposition to extensions in general, I think that is the best plan. Wait till after the season and see what he does, make him an offer based on that, if he says no, well, ship him somewhere for a boatload of Prospect return.

[HowAboutThat]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A lot depends on (1) the personality of the player, and (2) personal circumstances.   You mentioned earlier the difference between Acuna and Tatis.   Tatis is the son of a major leaguer who made almost $18 mm.   He could afford to take an aggressive stance and bear the risk of injury, etc. over the next few years if the Padres wouldn’t pay him — his family isn’t counting on him.   Acuna is probably in a very different circumstance and locking in $100 mm is plenty to massively change the lives of himself and anyone he cares about.    I don’t know anything about his family but odds are very high that they were pretty poor.    So, that’s a very different dynamic.   And, it may be that Acuna is just a very risk averse person.    It’s very likely that he left a lot of money on the table, but I think he’ll scrape by.   

If you offer me 100 and I take it, and then you come back and say “oh my God you could’ve had 200” I’m going to say,” look here, I have 100. Now shut up and go away.”

It’s not like the guy’s trying to buy the state of New York, after all