John Means 2021

[TommyPickles]

I said it two years ago, I'll say it again, I think John Means will start the next playoff game the Orioles play in.

 

[ArtVanDelay]

39 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Means Is only behind Glasnow in WAR, ahead of Cole and Bieber. Good company. I hope the breakout continues. 

The fact that he’s ahead of Cole and Bieber just shows how bad rWAR is for pitchers.  Means is really good but not on the same planet as those guys.  fWAR is much better for pitchers. 

[Hazmat]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's going a fine job building up that trade value.

Maybe if he's good enough the O's can bundle the Davis contract and get some needed salary relief? 

I'm just looking forward to seeing CJ Abrams in an Orioles uniform!   

[Il BuonO]

Really good. I said the key for him is the CH and it’s showing again to be his bread and butter. But FB command doesn’t hurt either and dropping in the occasional CU gives hitters more to think about. The strike outs per game is an unexpected surprise.

When a pitcher commands his arsenal combined with good sequencing it’s hard to beat.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

The fact that he’s ahead of Cole and Bieber just shows how bad rWAR is for pitchers.  Means is really good but not on the same planet as those guys.  fWAR is much better for pitchers. 

Depends what you're interested in assessing. Performance to date in terms of results ("what actually happened"), rWAR is actually better in my opinion. For sustainability of that performance / likely for it to continue into the future, then fWAR is probably better. Means has a far better ERA+ (277 vs. 213) and is only .1 rWAR ahead of Cole, so it's not some major difference, Cole is getting credit for some of the peripherals where he has an advantage.

[interloper]

Who knew the curve he throws was a knuckle curve. I didn't until the MASN cameras picked it up. Maybe he throws multiple curves.

[OFFNY]

5 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

 

I said it two years ago, and I'll say it again ...... I think that John Means will start the next playoff game that the Orioles play in.

 

o

 

Unless the Orioles are in a must-win situation in the final one or two days of the regular season, and they need to win a game/games just to qualify for the playoffs in the first place.

 

o

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

The fact that he’s ahead of Cole and Bieber just shows how bad rWAR is for pitchers.  Means is really good but not on the same planet as those guys.  fWAR is much better for pitchers. 

I hate fWAR for pitchers.   fWAR actually calculated that Ubaldo was worth 4.8 fWAR as an Oriole despite his 5.22 ERA.    Believe it if you want, but I watched the guy pitch for four years and I’ll take 0.1 rWAR as a much better measure of his value.   

fWAR also really liked Sidney Ponson (5.64 ERA) during his 2004-05 run with us, to the tune of 4.0 fWAR.   Give me his 0.1 rWAR, thanks.    

[Just Regular]

Re-visiting a favorite cherry pick, Means is 12th in K-BB% since he got good (the cherriest part is the arbitrary begin point isn't even the month of September, but September 3rd after his last 2020 clunker).

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2021&month=1000&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2020-09-03&enddate=2021-04-19&sort=9,d

I know our relievers have let some inherited runners in, but look at Means with a shiny and unsustainable 100.0 LOB across ~50 days of play.

Is he 4th behind Cole, Glasnow, Ryu as best in division?

[ArtVanDelay]

4 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Depends what you're interested in assessing. Performance to date in terms of results ("what actually happened"), rWAR is actually better in my opinion. For sustainability of that performance / likely for it to continue into the future, then fWAR is probably better. Means has a far better ERA+ (277 vs. 213) and is only .1 rWAR ahead of Cole, so it's not some major difference, Cole is getting credit for some of the peripherals where he has an advantage.

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I hate fWAR for pitchers.   fWAR actually calculated that Ubaldo was worth 4.8 fWAR as an Oriole despite his 5.22 ERA.    Believe it if you want, but I watched the guy pitch for four years and I’ll take 0.1 rWAR as a much better measure of his value.   

fWAR also really liked Sidney Ponson (5.64 ERA) during his 2004-05 run with us, to the tune of 4.0 fWAR.   Give me his 0.1 rWAR, thanks.    

I don’t think anyone could argue that Means has been better than Bieber this year.  And that’s not a knock on Means, obviously he’s been excellent.  But Bieber is otherworldly.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

 

I don’t think anyone could argue that Means has been better than Bieber this year.  And that’s not a knock on Means, obviously he’s been excellent.  But Bieber is otherworldly.

I’d certainly bet on Bieber to have the better season.    But has he really been better than Means this year?    Sure, the K’s are very impressive.   But in 3 of his four games he’s allowed a baserunner per inning or more and coughed up a homer in each game.   He’s been pretty generous with the free passes, relatively speaking.   

OK, gun to my head, Bieber has been more impressive that Means, largely on the basis of getting deeper into games more regularly and missing a lot of bats.    
 

[HowAboutThat]

13 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

I said it two years ago, I'll say it again, I think John Means will start the next playoff game the Orioles play in.

 

Nah. He’s going to be Eric Bedard 2021.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

Nah. He’s going to be Eric Bedard 2021.

I think there's a decent chance Means gets traded for assets, but he is much more likable than Bedard. I'll be sad if day comes when Means is traded. I had no such feelings when Bedard was traded to the Mariners. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think there's a decent chance Means gets traded for assets, but he is much more likable than Bedard. I'll be sad if day comes when Means is traded. I had no such feelings when Bedard was traded to the Mariners. 

I liked Bedard, word is his teammates liked him.  Thing is he didn't suffer fools so the media didn't care for him.

 

So very much of our opinions about players is filtered through the media.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think there's a decent chance Means gets traded for assets, but he is much more likable than Bedard. I'll be sad if day comes when Means is traded. I had no such feelings when Bedard was traded to the Mariners. 

I like him too. And he won’t be traded unless he nets a huge return, but I think he’s going to be increasingly valuable.