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Guthrie Doubters stand up

Rex Thunder

By Rex Thunder
in Orioles Talk

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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Well the guys with the best stuff in baseball still usually have their BABIP in the 280-300.

He has been lucky...You can't deny that.

Now, the question is, how lucky has he been and what would we be looking at if his stats were more "normal"?

That is the question.

This has been discussed before and it's been shown that's not totally true. Santana is usually in the .260-280 range. Zambrano is in the .260 to .270 range the past 3 seasons. Clemens .254-.286 since 2005. So saying the best stuff in baseball still usually have average BABIP is incorrect.

As for relievers, Rivera was .254 and .270 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. He's also .277 for his career.

And with all that said, Guthrie's minor league BABIP in 2006 was .273

Can someone calculate his ERA if his BABIP is .280 and then for .300?

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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All valid points. But let me ask you this. If Texas called and said, we'll give you Mark Teixiera for either DCaBB OR Guthrie, straight up, which of the two do you send? (and saying you would wait to sign Tex as a free aganet is not an allowable answer in my little game!)

If it was my choice and was told they have equal trade value, I'd rather trade Guthrie - without hesitation. Guthrie has been absolutely phenominal, and I feel comfortable labelling him a 3rd starter, but he's 2 years older than DCab - who could still be a number 1 starter.

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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All valid points. But let me ask you this. If Texas called and said, we'll give you Mark Teixiera for either DCaBB OR Guthrie, straight up, which of the two do you send? (and saying you would wait to sign Tex as a free aganet is not an allowable answer in my little game!)

The man's a menace!!!! There are entirely too many man crushes around here!!!! :D:D:D

Besides, it's "Teixeira", not "Teixiera". How's the construction of that statue comin'?

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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This has been discussed before and it's been shown that's not totally true. Santana is usually in the .260-280 range. Zambrano is in the .260 to .270 range the past 3 seasons. Clemens .254-.286 since 2005. So saying the best stuff in baseball still usually have average BABIP is incorrect.

As for relievers, Rivera was .254 and .270 in 2005 and 2006, respectively. He's also .277 for his career.

And with all that said, Guthrie's minor league BABIP in 2006 was .273

Can someone calculate his ERA if his BABIP is .280 and then for .300?

No he's not:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P

His career BABIP is 284.

If you are using the BIPA on ESPN, that's fine but that probably doesn't have an average of 290...So, use the same stat or put it in the proper context.

Here is Clemens:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=815&position=P

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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All valid points. But let me ask you this. If Texas called and said, we'll give you Mark Teixiera for either DCaBB OR Guthrie, straight up, which of the two do you send? (and saying you would wait to sign Tex as a free aganet is not an allowable answer in my little game!)

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Dipper9 again.

Dip can find a way to fit Teixeira into any conversation.

"Hey Dip, have you seen that snake out back this week?"

"The Orioles should trade for Mark Teixeira."

"Uh, okay great. How about that snake?"

"I think Mark Teixeira and A-Rod could alleviate our reptile issues."

"With or without bats?"

"With. Oh, actually... probably without. Yeah we definitely need to trade for Tex."

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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No he's not:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P

His career BABIP is 284.

If you are using the BIPA on ESPN, that's fine but that probably doesn't have an average of 290...So, use the same stat or put it in the proper context.

Here is Clemens:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=815&position=P

Since 2003 he has been in that range (give or take a few hundredths), which is the time frame when we have seen the dominance of Santana. Also check out the huge drop in BABIP after 2002. I wonder what changed?

I've noticed other sites that use BABIP have different totals than Fangraphs. They're only different by a few hundredths so it's not that much of a difference in ranges. And when I say .260 or .280, the few hundredths off the range still are comparable.

I've posted this article before...it should be read by everybody.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-different-look-at-babip/

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Since 2003 he has been in that range (give or take a few hundredths), which is the time frame when we have seen the dominance of Santana. Also check out the huge drop in BABIP after 2002. I wonder what changed?

I've noticed other sites that use BABIP have different totals than Fangraphs. They're only different by a few hundredths so it's not that much of a difference in ranges. And when I say .260 or .280, the few hundredths off the range still are comparable.I've posted his article before...it should be read by everybody.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-different-look-at-babip/

Talk to me when Guthrie gets in this range.

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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Talk to me when Guthrie gets in this range.

Sometimes I don't you think you would believe it even if it smacked you in the face.

Also just saw that Baseball Reference has Santana's BABIP this year at .254 compared to Fan Graphs' .261 total. Who is correct? We don't know

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Sometimes I don't you think you would believe it even if it smacked you in the face.

Also just saw that Baseball Reference has Santana's BABIP this year at .254 compared to Fan Graphs' .261 total. Who is correct? We don't know

Well, Guthrie's is 228 as a starter according to Baseball Reference.

Whatever you want to look at, he is still well below league average and that is the bottom line.

That is a lucky rate...Not sure how you or anyone else can deny that.

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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

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You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Dipper9 again.

Dip can find a way to fit Teixeira into any conversation.

"Hey Dip, have you seen that snake out back this week?"

"The Orioles should trade for Mark Teixeira."

"Uh, okay great. How about that snake?"

"I think Mark Teixeira and A-Rod could alleviate our reptile issues."

"With or without bats?"

"With. Oh, actually... probably without. Yeah we definitely need to trade for Tex."

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to burds13 again.

Pretty damn funny Burds. However, I am convinced you are stalking me! And I am about 90% sure YOU are the one who introduced that damn snake in my yard! When I hold Tex's welcome home party, maybe he can help me hunt down that little booger and we'll grill him up nice! :D

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Say O! Major Leaguer

Say O!

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Two points:


    SG, if you referred to the phenomenon as "mean reversion" instead of "luck", I bet you might get a little less resistance from the crowd. Your point is still valid in that Guthrie's BABIP stats this season are an outlier. From my MBA stats class, people do not want to believe anything is ever attributable to luck (good or bad).

    Hallas (I think) brought up the most salient point in this thread - can Guthrie maintain his "stuff" over a full season as a starter? Recently, Guthrie's velocity has decreased more than a few mph ticks, and not coincidentally, that has coincided with getting hit up a bit. Now maybe Guthrie is just going through a little dead arm period, over which he will be vulnerable b/c his only plus pitch is the fastball. Perhaps the loss in velocity is just Guthrie settling into his natural speed. Or worse, it is an indication that Guthrie's arm will slowly break down over the course of a full season.
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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

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Two points:

    SG, if you referred to the phenomenon as "mean reversion" instead of "luck", I bet you might get a little less resistance from the crowd. Your point is still valid in that Guthrie's BABIP stats this season are an outlier. From my MBA stats class, people do not want to believe anything is ever attributable to luck (good or bad).

    Hallas (I think) brought up the most salient point in this thread - can Guthrie maintain his "stuff" over a full season as a starter? Recently, Guthrie's velocity has decreased more than a few mph ticks, and not coincidentally, that has coincided with getting hit up a bit. Now maybe Guthrie is just going through a little dead arm period, over which he will be vulnerable b/c his only plus pitch is the fastball. Perhaps the loss in velocity is just Guthrie settling into his natural speed. Or worse, it is an indication that Guthrie's arm will slowly break down over the course of a full season.

Yeah, he looked like crap last night! :rolleyes:

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to burds13 again.

Pretty damn funny Burds. However, I am convinced you are stalking me! And I am about 90% sure YOU are the one who introduced that damn snake in my yard! When I hold Tex's welcome home party, maybe he can help me hunt down that little booger and we'll grill him up nice! :D

Oh, I'm not stalking you Dip. I just can't turn around without finding you pining for yer boy.

If you eat that snake after Tex whacks him, then you'll be completely cured of your phobia.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Hallas (I think) brought up the most salient point in this thread - can Guthrie maintain his "stuff" over a full season as a starter? Recently, Guthrie's velocity has decreased more than a few mph ticks, and not coincidentally, that has coincided with getting hit up a bit. Now maybe Guthrie is just going through a little dead arm period, over which he will be vulnerable b/c his only plus pitch is the fastball. Perhaps the loss in velocity is just Guthrie settling into his natural speed. Or worse, it is an indication that Guthrie's arm will slowly break down over the course of a full season.

Guthrie pitched a fair number of innings in college and the minors.

2002: 157

2003: 159.1

2004: 161.1

2005: 142.1

2006: 142.2

He's at 118.2 right now. He should be fine through August, but in September they may need to ease up on him.

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tywright Perennial All-Star

tywright

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Two points:

    SG, if you referred to the phenomenon as "mean reversion" instead of "luck", I bet you might get a little less resistance from the crowd. Your point is still valid in that Guthrie's BABIP stats this season are an outlier. From my MBA stats class, people do not want to believe anything is ever attributable to luck (good or bad).

    Hallas (I think) brought up the most salient point in this thread - can Guthrie maintain his "stuff" over a full season as a starter? Recently, Guthrie's velocity has decreased more than a few mph ticks, and not coincidentally, that has coincided with getting hit up a bit. Now maybe Guthrie is just going through a little dead arm period, over which he will be vulnerable b/c his only plus pitch is the fastball. Perhaps the loss in velocity is just Guthrie settling into his natural speed. Or worse, it is an indication that Guthrie's arm will slowly break down over the course of a full season.

1) Bingo...you minimize the risk (better management) to reduce the luck factor

2) His velocity is back up to his normal performance

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