Guthrie Doubters stand up

[baltfan]

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

I have been saying for months that Cabrera doesn't look the same as last year. The stuff just isn't there. Last year he was hitting 100mph on the gun and his breaking ball was moving like crazy. This year his fastball is topping at 94-95 with less movement and his breaking ball is flat. He doesn't look like the same pitcher. He is either hurt or his mechanics are just an absolute mess.

[Hallas]

Yea, this is good to see.

As for what you are saying about DCab...You are 100% correct and that is one reason why, at this point, i would probably slightly lean towards Guthrie.

However, if DCab outpitches him over the next 1.5 season, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Just need to see more from Guthrie.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this were to happen. Cabrera has been in the bigs for 4 years and he's still a barely-passable backend starter. Guthrie has been in the bigs for 4 months and, even adjusting for his peripherals, is pitching like a #2 or good #3 starter. On top of that, Guthrie is showing the stuff that made him a number 1 pick. It's not like he's getting by with smoke, mirrors, and an 87 MPH fastball.

[Eight]

His BABIP as a starter is worse than that.

And yes, the FIP stats are good...Not a very solid #1 like you said but a #2.

That being said, the other part of him having his other stats be more league average is him dealing with more adversity...The adversity and thus, his confidence, has been an issue for him in the past.

So, if he had many more baserunners and were giving up more runs and things like that, how much would it effect him mentally?

It is strange to think this guy had those issues though...He carries himself differently than that but they did and have existed nonetheless.

Plus, those FIP stats are also based off the whole year, a year in which he saw a lot of luck early on.

His BABIP as a starter is irrelevant. His ERA as a starter is also lower. Comparing whole year BABIP to whole year ERA = comparing starter BABIP to starter ERA.

In what way was his FIP based on luck? It's only looking at his peripherals. It's factoring the luck out.

[Say O!]

I'd be absolutely shocked if this were to happen. Cabrera has been in the bigs for 4 years and he's still a barely-passable backend starter. Guthrie has been in the bigs for 4 months and, even adjusting for his peripherals, is pitching like a #2 or good #3 starter. On top of that, Guthrie is showing the stuff that made him a number 1 pick. It's not like he's getting by with smoke, mirrors, and an 87 MPH fastball.

Speaking of which, how was Guthrie's velocity today? Mid-Hi 90's like when he was more dominant, or low 90-91 when he got hit up earlier in the month???

[Babypowder]

Speaking of which, how was Guthrie's velocity today? Mid-Hi 90's like when he was more dominant, or low 90-91 when he got hit up earlier in the month???

He was right around 90 most of the game according to the gun on MASN. He got it up to 94 or 95 a few pitches. But for the most part he was working 89-92.

[Rex Thunder]

He has been lucky...Denying that is just pure homerism.

How has he been lucky. I can't recall NUMEROUS situations this year when the defense has put him in a bad situation- and he has bailed them out. Not many O's pitchers can recover like he has in games. It's gut check times like that which define the type of pitcher he is the most to me. Guys who rise when the going gets tough. He has done it time and time again, and to say he has gotten lucky- is not only unfair, but untrue. It's not homerism when youve watched every game and know that he's the real deal. There is enough pessimists on here who bash everyone as soon as they get a chance I'd think you realize homerism isn't all it cracked up to be when dealing with a team that hasn't won in 10 years.

Give the man his due!

[Rex Thunder]

I personally am what you would call a doubter. I think Guts is quite the find, but I still believe that he's eventually going to regress. I don't think this regression will be Bruce Chen style or anything; he'll probably remain a serviceable 3-5 starter, which is well above expectations for anyone signed off of waivers. I seriously doubt though whether he continues to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over the long run. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Well, I hope youre wrong too. I hope this is our payback for giving away Curt Schilling all those years ago, not to mention quite a few others. It is possible for a guy- especially a guy with number 1 pick skills, to take a while to come into his own. Cleveland must have just been the wrong place for him for one reason or another. He has found his place in Baltimore and I think he'll be a solid #2 at least for as long as we keep him. I really find it hard to believe that he could blow thru the lineups he has this year and have his confidence grow as it has, only to lose it suddenly. He has a great head on his shoulders and I don't think he'll get lazy (ala Ponson), or arrogant. He's the type of guy who will only get better now that's he's found his place.....

but fingers crossed anyway...

[Sports Guy]

His BABIP as a starter is irrelevant. His ERA as a starter is also lower. Comparing whole year BABIP to whole year ERA = comparing starter BABIP to starter ERA.

In what way was his FIP based on luck? It's only looking at his peripherals. It's factoring the luck out.

Well, i am not sure if homers are still in the "lucky" range or not.

His BBs have been lower than we can reasonably expect.

I guess luck wasn't the right word there...More like the need for more normality based on his career.

[Sports Guy]

How has he been lucky. I can't recall NUMEROUS situations this year when the defense has put him in a bad situation- and he has bailed them out. Not many O's pitchers can recover like he has in games. It's gut check times like that which define the type of pitcher he is the most to me. Guys who rise when the going gets tough. He has done it time and time again, and to say he has gotten lucky- is not only unfair, but untrue. It's not homerism when youve watched every game and know that he's the real deal. There is enough pessimists on here who bash everyone as soon as they get a chance I'd think you realize homerism isn't all it cracked up to be when dealing with a team that hasn't won in 10 years.

Give the man his due!

When the league average for BABIP is 290ish and his is almost 50 points lower, that is luck.

I linked an article talking about some of his other batted ball data being lucky as well.

[Rex Thunder]

When the league average for BABIP is 290ish and his is almost 50 points lower, that is luck.

I linked an article talking about some of his other batted ball data being lucky as well.

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

[ScottieBaseball]

He has been lucky...Denying that is just pure homerism.

Even though I haven't read all 8+ pages of this thread, this is the only thing detracting from Guthrie's ability that I agreed with, but I have to say it's bizarre how the team seems to step up when he's on the hill. The Orioles seem to pull more diving plays and well-fielded tough ground balls with him on the mound. That's not to mention the number of times the humble Guthrie has attributed his success to his defense.

[Sports Guy]

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

For that one year? Absolutely.

[El Gordo]

So, if Curt Schilling's was almost 50 points lower, would you still call it luck? I'm not a big numbers guy. It takes too long to look them up, and soemtimes they really don't tellt he whole story. I have watched all but 2 or 3 of Guthrie's start. Was at a couple personally- and I'm just amazed at his control and poise every time I watch him. For the longest time, I kept waiting for him to break- as the offense never scored him runs, or the bullpen blew a lead, or the defense made an error... but he never did. He has impressed me with such consistency that I can't call it luck- regardless of what numbers tell you.

I think his name will be up there with the elite going in to next season... and then maybe when his numbers are above "league average," it will be attributed more to his dominance, rather than his "luck."

When it's a close game and you're up or down by a run or two you're more likely to see those diving plays . When you're up or down by 5 or 6 there's less likelyhood of people sacricifing their bodies. Is it luck or skill that Guts keeps the score close?

[Rockford]

Comparisons are made between Bruce Chen and Jeremy Guthrie. But shouldn't their "stuff," their pitching repertoire, be included in those comparisons? Chen often threw in the 70s and low 80s. Guthrie can hit 97 and can mix in a slider. His downfall is you can count on him to hang a few breaking balls each game.

I mean, so many continue to wait for the clock to strike midnight and Guthrie to turn into a pumpkin. Can Mazzone be given some credit for this turnaround? Or is this turnaround at this age so against the norm that you cannot explain it away with, "Well, it must be working with a different pitching coach who turned him around."

I know throwing 97 doesn't guarantee great "stuff" for a pitcher if the pitch doesn't move or if he doesn't have other reliable pitches to turn to. But I guess my point here is I have seen Guthrie several times on TV now and it would seem to me he has got more than enough good "stuff" to get the best hitters in the league out. Or am I wrong here and his 95 mph fastball and slider aren't "filthy" pitches?

[Moose Milligan]

Whatever, its a shame that Dice-K was already determined to win the ROY before the season started....Guthries pitched way better...