Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Sports Guy]

Because abnormally high or low numbers in this stat can mask just what type he is.

If it is low, is he truly a great groundball pitcher (ie Chien Wang) or is he getting the benefit of a very solid defense (Orioles number 2 in the bigs.) And on a team with a lesser defense some of the deficiencies may shine through more.

Vice versa for the other end.

GB pitchers will have lower BABIP but Guthrie is not some extreme GB pitcher.

Halladay, for example, usually has a 2:1 or better GB/FB ratio and his career BABIP is 299.

Even the great pitchers are usually in the 280-300 range.

Higher than that and you are unlucky and lower than that you are lucky.

That isn't to say you can't still be a good pitcher or anything.

[Leitch]

I want him to be good without the luck...That is my point.

You are one of the good stat guys around here....You know as well as i do that if we go into the offseason with Guthrie having a 5.5 K rate, 2 BB rate and 220 BABIP and ultra low FB/HR %, that there would be a lot of question if he can duplicate it.

However, the k, BB and homer rate are all going up...The BABIP is still very low but it is slowly climbing.

I want to see these things.

I want to see him without the luck.

A good example is this month...Through today, he has a 4.11 ERA. So, even though he has been shaky, his ERA is still solid.

I am very encouraged by that overall.

Nothing about his basic skill set changes whether he's got an average or an abnormal (insert various defense/luck dependent stats), etc. If the year ends today, you're looking at a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate, a solid, if unspectacular strikeout rate, and a good ISO allowed.

You generally have no idea what kind of defense/luck dependent variables are going to figure into his ability to prevent runs next year whether it was average this year or abnormally high or low. That's why ERA is noisy and why it sucks as a measure of skill evaluation.

[Leitch]

Because abnormally high or low numbers in this stat can mask just what type he is.

If it is low, is he truly a great groundball pitcher (ie Chien Wang) or is he getting the benefit of a very solid defense (Orioles number 2 in the bigs.) And on a team with a lesser defense some of the deficiencies may shine through more.

Vice versa for the other end.

Yeah, defense is a small part of BABIP, the Orioles are not the number 2 defense in the majors, and you can get batted ball type numbers and factor them into your evaluation without fretting about BABIP\LOB%\HR/FB\DP% etc.

The things that Guthrie controls and are generally consistent year to year(strikeouts, walks, ISO, Groundball/Flyball numbers) are what you should use in your evaluation of Guthrie's skill set and what he brings to the table.

ETA: Also, I'm pretty sure that high GB's = higher BABIP and high FB = lower BABIP because flyballs land into gloves more easily than groundballs are scooped up and thrown to a base before a baserunner touches the base.

[bgfield]

Yeah, defense is a small part of BABIP, the Orioles are not the number 2 defense in the majors, and you can get batted ball type numbers and factor them into your evaluation without fretting about BABIP\LOB%\HR/FB\DP% etc.

The things that Guthrie controls and are generally consistent year to year(strikeouts, walks, ISO, Groundball/Flyball numbers) are what you should use in your evaluation of Guthrie's skill set and what he brings to the table.

So the fact that many of the balls put in play against him are typically at defenders isn't a concern to you?

Don't get me wrong, if he can maintain his .220 BABIP for his entire career, then all the better. I just think it's unreasonable to expect that.

[Sports Guy]

Nothing about his basic skill set changes whether he's got an average or an abnormal (insert various defense/luck dependent stats), etc. If the year ends today, you're looking at a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate, a solid, if unspectacular strikeout rate, and a good ISO allowed.

You generally have no idea what kind of defense/luck dependent variables are going to figure into his ability to prevent runs next year whether it was average this year or abnormally high or low. That's why ERA is noisy and why it sucks as a measure of skill evaluation.

Yea but if he goes into next year with a 230 BABIP, you will have to wonder what he will give you when that rate gets into the more normal range.

There were only 10 pitchers, all of last year, that had a sub 280 BABIP and 40% of those were at 279:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2006

[caljr]

I have a question for Sports Guy. If you could have one pitcher for the next 2 years, who would it be? Cabrera or Guthrie?

[Sports Guy]

So the fact that many of the balls put in play against him are typically at defenders isn't a concern to you?

Don't get me wrong, if he can maintain his .220 BABIP for his entire career, then all the better. I just think it's unreasonable to expect that.

It is.

So, the question is, what happens when his BABIP is at a normal rate, his BB rate goes up(and be more in line with what he did in the minors) and his HR rate goes up.

Well, we have seen those things happen and his ERA has been rising.

So, what happens when those things happen over a full year.

That is all i am saying...Let's see that.

Personally, i don't get why the rest of you don't want to see this.

I don't get why you look at some of the luckier stats that he has had and combine that with his age and MiL career and not say, well, let's see how he does over the next 1.5 season before we annoit him.

Why is this so wrong to do?

[Leitch]

So the fact that many of the balls put in play against him are typically at defenders isn't a concern to you?

Don't get me wrong, if he can maintain his .220 BABIP for his entire career, then all the better. I just think it's unreasonable to expect that.

I'm not expecting it, but my point is that any good stathead has an idea of Guthrie's skill set from his peripheral numbers and I don't see any reason to want his BIP to fall in unmolested just to prove he isn't lucky.

If Jeremy Guthrie, with his strikeout rate in the low 6's, puts up a 2.88 ERA and a .300 ish BABIP, it will be because of extremely fortitous timing of batting events, because Guthrie allows a lot of balls into play.

[Sports Guy]

I have a question for Sports Guy. If you could have one pitcher for the next 2 years, who would it be? Cabrera or Guthrie?

I don't know.

This is a bs answer to your question and i am sorry for that but the bottom line is i need to see more from Guthrie to answer this.

[caljr]

I don't know.

This is a bs answer to your question and i am sorry for that but the bottom line is i need to see more from Guthrie to answer this.

That's fair enough. I was just curious who you value more right now.

[Sports Guy]

That's fair enough. I was just curious who you value more right now.

Let me put it this way....I trade either. Whoever brings back more in a trade, that is the guy i would deal.

[Hallas]

GB pitchers will have lower BABIP but Guthrie is not some extreme GB pitcher.

Halladay, for example, usually has a 2:1 or better GB/FB ratio and his career BABIP is 299.

Even the great pitchers are usually in the 280-300 range.

Higher than that and you are unlucky and lower than that you are lucky.

That isn't to say you can't still be a good pitcher or anything.

You are dead wrong here - GB pitchers have a higher BABIP due to the fact that most fly balls are caught in the infield/outfield or go out of the park for home runs.

The advantage to being a GB pitcher is that you don't allow HRs.

Guthrie has been lucky, but not allowing BBs is not luck (and he usually doesn't walk anyone - 3 BBs against a patient Oakland team is still very solid.) His FIP and xFIP are 3.99 and 4.04, which would indicate that despite a little luck, he's still a great picher to have behind Bedard.

So what exactly is your beef with this guy? He's still a very good pitcher. All-star? maybe not. But above average and a solid #2 or #3? absolutely.

[Sports Guy]

You are dead wrong here - GB pitchers have a higher BABIP due to the fact that most fly balls are caught in the infield/outfield or go out of the park for home runs.

The advantage to being a GB pitcher is that you don't allow HRs.

Guthrie has been lucky, but not allowing BBs is not luck (and he usually doesn't walk anyone - 3 BBs against a patient Oakland team is still very solid.) His FIP and xFIP are 3.99 and 4.04, which would indicate that despite a little luck, he's still a great picher to have behind Bedard.

So what exactly is your beef with this guy? He's still a very good pitcher. All-star? maybe not. But above average and a solid #2 or #3? absolutely.

I thought i heard it the other way but what are you saying makes sense...However, these guys will beg to differ:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=199&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=921&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1303&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2074&position=P

Just a few examples of GB pitchers.

[Boof]

Let me put it this way....I trade either. Whoever brings back more in a trade, that is the guy i would deal.

Honestly, I think Cabrera still gets more back based on sheer talent potential. And for those of you who believe that Cabrera will be an ace...If it happens, good for him. It's not happening in Baltimore.

Besides, we have an Ace.

[Sports Guy]

Honestly, I think Cabrera still gets more back based on sheer talent potential. And for those of you who believe that Cabrera will be an ace...If it happens, good for him. It's not happening in Baltimore.

Besides, we have an Ace.

Not only that but you would think teams need to see more out of Guthrie to give up anything of very good value for him.