Guthrie Doubters stand up

[Moose Milligan]

His control isn't the big problem this year.

Right, what was I thinking...leading the majors in walks couldn't be a big problem...

Granted, he's getting hit harder than he ever has...but the walks certainly aren't helping and will always be his biggest downfall.

[Sports Guy]

Right, what was I thinking...leading the majors in walks couldn't be a big problem...

Granted, he's getting hit harder than he ever has...but the walks certainly aren't helping and will always be his biggest downfall.

The walks aren't helping but his BB rate is much better than last year and yet his ERA is OVER A HALF A RUN WORSE THAN LAST YEAR!

Hell, his ERA is worse right now than it was when he was sent down last year and the walks were much higher at that point last year than they are right now.

The problem for DCab isn't the walks this year...They aren't helping but they are far from the problem IMO.

His HR rate is awful...His stuff is worse and his K rate is down.

I have to think his swing and miss % is way down and he is definitely getting hit harder than ever before.

Even when DCab had bad outings in the past, he would rarely get hit hard.

Now, he is getting crushed.

I wonder if he is healthy?

[Moose Milligan]

The walks aren't helping but his BB rate is much better than last year and yet his ERA is OVER A HALF A RUN WORSE THAN LAST YEAR!

Hell, his ERA is worse right now than it was when he was sent down last year and the walks were much higher at that point last year than they are right now.

The problem for DCab isn't the walks this year...They aren't helping but they are far from the problem IMO.

His HR rate is awful...His stuff is worse and his K rate is down.

I have to think his swing and miss % is way down and he is definitely getting hit harder than ever before.

Even when DCab had bad outings in the past, he would rarely get hit hard.

Now, he is getting crushed.

I wonder if he is healthy?

I dunno, he doesn't seem to have a problem throwing a lot of pitches every time out and there hasn't been any talk of pain/discomfort.

You're right about his stuff, it's not nearly as good as it used to be. He's lost speed off his fastball and that two seamer isn't as nasty as it used to be.

Maybe he's trying "take something off it" in hopes that his control improves....which hasn't been the case.

While his walks are down, they're still a problem...walking people AND getting crushed is just a bad, bad combo...

[Sports Guy]

I dunno, he doesn't seem to have a problem throwing a lot of pitches every time out and there hasn't been any talk of pain/discomfort.

You're right about his stuff, it's not nearly as good as it used to be. He's lost speed off his fastball and that two seamer isn't as nasty as it used to be.

Maybe he's trying "take something off it" in hopes that his control improves....which hasn't been the case.

While his walks are down, they're still a problem...walking people AND getting crushed is just a bad, bad combo...

Yes they are a problem...But you, and many others, act as if his walks are THE problem this year.

That isn't the case...They are part of the problem but it is a small part IMO.

His fastball and curve aren't that good this year...Why is that?

That is what i want to know.

[Moose Milligan]

Yes they are a problem...But you, and many others, act as if his walks are THE problem this year.

That isn't the case...They are part of the problem but it is a small part IMO.

His fastball and curve aren't that good this year...Why is that?

That is what i want to know.

I, personally, think he's trying to take something off his pitches in order to try and locate them better...which means he's losing velocity and movement on his fastball and bite on his curve.

[Sports Guy]

I, personally, think he's trying to take something off his pitches in order to try and locate them better...which means he's losing velocity and movement on his fastball and bite on his curve.

This is what i have thought all year as well.

But now i wonder if there is more to it than that now.

[Moose Milligan]

This is what i have thought all year as well.

But now i wonder if there is more to it than that now.

What makes you think there's more to it?

[Sports Guy]

What makes you think there's more to it?

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

[clapdiddy]

Because his stuff is ordinary right now.

Because teams are hitting him hard and he is giving up a ton of homers.

These are things that you could always count on DCab NOT doing.

His curve not being as good make me wonder if an injury is there.

He is throwing more innings per start, so that is good.

It doesn't appear that his fastball has the movement it used to have on it, either. Its flat a lot of times, and those are the pitches that are being hit out.

[Sports Guy]

It doesn't appear that his fastball has the movement it used to have on it, either. Its flat a lot of times, and those are the pitches that are being hit out.

Right...He has no third pitch that he is willing to throw.

His curve doesn't have the bite or effectiveness it had before and his fastball is straight most of the time.

Why is this? What is going on with him?

When Mazzone is interviewed, he isn't asked these questions...This is what i want to know.

[CrimsonTribe]

I hopped on to see what was being said about Guthrie after today's game and was surprised to see there was no new thread about it. Just a few starts ago, it seemed as though half of the guys on here were jumping ship from the Guthrie bandwagon.

Are you still there? Are you still doubting? I loved what Jim Palmer hinted at, "It's hard to annoint him as one of the game's elite pitchers, but that's what the numbers show." DEAD ON.

Guthrie is great to watch- and I love even more his positive attitude on there. Last game the defense let him down a few times- and today Payton made a big catch late to save a base hit. Guthrie's should and expression said it all. Such a great team guy- and a miracle find!

I want to know who is still doubting and why...

I personally am what you would call a doubter. I think Guts is quite the find, but I still believe that he's eventually going to regress. I don't think this regression will be Bruce Chen style or anything; he'll probably remain a serviceable 3-5 starter, which is well above expectations for anyone signed off of waivers. I seriously doubt though whether he continues to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over the long run. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

[Sports Guy]

Does any site keep swing and miss data? Baltimoron? Drungo? 1970??

[Goop]

I always thought of Guthrie to be a great pitcher. Just because someone has a few bad outings doesn't automatically mean he's gonna suck for the rest of his career.

[Eight]

Yea but how many on 3 of the lists?

And, until recently, Guthrie had a lucky FB/HR % as well.

The question i have is, what if all of these numbers regress to league average and the "luck factor" is out of it....Where would his ERA be?

FIP: 3.99

X-FIP: 4.04

We know that even with the "luck" removed he is still a very solid #1/#2 pitcher based on his peripherals. This is not something we can't determine ahead of time. We have more than enough data at our disposal to determine his numbers should look like.

And since that article was written that pegged him as lucky, his LD% has gone up to 16.8* and his BABIP has soared to .244, the two areas th. His ERA increased by a mere .26.

[Sports Guy]

FIP: 3.99

X-FIP: 4.04

We know that even with the "luck" removed he is still a very solid #1/#2 pitcher based on his peripherals. This is not something we can't determine ahead of time. We have more than enough data at our disposal to determine his numbers should look like.

And since that article was written that pegged him as lucky, his LD% has gone up to 16.8* and his BABIP has soared to .244, the two areas th. His ERA increased by a mere .26.

His BABIP as a starter is worse than that.

And yes, the FIP stats are good...Not a very solid #1 like you said but a #2.

That being said, the other part of him having his other stats be more league average is him dealing with more adversity...The adversity and thus, his confidence, has been an issue for him in the past.

So, if he had many more baserunners and were giving up more runs and things like that, how much would it effect him mentally?

It is strange to think this guy had those issues though...He carries himself differently than that but they did and have existed nonetheless.

Plus, those FIP stats are also based off the whole year, a year in which he saw a lot of luck early on.