Baseball America #2 system

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, we’ve got Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline saying no. 1, BA saying no. 2.   Folks can quibble with it, but it’s hard to deny we have a top level farm system right now.   It’s pretty skewed towards the position players though.  

Skewed towards position players and especially the top 2.  My question is where would it be ranked without those 2.  
 

I think that’s more of a discussion point especially for the crowd that believes we are deep and Elias has done amazing things building the system.

Personally, I feel it would be in the 8-12 range without those 2 which is still very good imo….but those 2 definitely skew things.

And btw, that’s fine.  I would rather have the 2 elite prospects vs 5-10 Solid guys.  
 

But yes, it’s the pitching.  Otoh, should we care?  After doing that research on the Cubs and Astros and remembering those teams, they didn’t care about developing pitching.  Maybe we shouldn’t either.  
 

I have been in the jewelry business for 20 years now and the business is all about buying.  It’s not about selling.  You can make a profit on anything if you buy it at the right price.  Maybe this is the principle the Os are thinking for pitching?  That if they have enough depth and potential in their system, that they can always get whatever they want.  It’s really not a bad strategy in a lot of ways especially with the way starters are being handled nowadays.   
 

The key is, will ownership allow that investment?  

[Aglets]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:31 PM, OrioleDog said:

Well, his rival for 1-1 from his draft year hits in the middle of the order most days for a division leader, and has managed these monthly splits, despite the crippling handicap of a mere 55 minor league games.

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	16	15	55	47	7	12	5	0	0	1	0	0	7	17	.255	.364	.362	.725	17	1	1	0	0	0	1	.400	90	111
May	26	25	99	86	12	19	6	0	4	11	0	0	8	23	.221	.303	.430	.733	37	2	3	0	2	0	5	.246	87	105
June	23	19	78	71	12	17	4	0	3	8	1	0	5	21	.239	.282	.423	.705	30	2	0	0	2	0	0	.286	79	90
July	26	24	98	91	13	28	7	0	4	12	0	1	5	15	.308	.347	.516	.863	47	2	1	0	1	0	1	.329	119	131
August	11	10	43	36	5	10	0	0	3	6	0	0	7	8	.278	.395	.528	.923	19	2	0	0	0	0	1	.280	136	148

There was little serious talk of Vaughn over Adley at 1:1 that year.   85% of the debate was Adley over Witt Jr. as I recall.    Witt is still in the minors and I'm sure on an arrival schedule that will very closely mirror Adley's next year.

It's almost like teams take multiple factors into account when looking at prospect promotion schedules and contending teams may have different priorities than rebuilding ones.  I think most of us acknowledge that Adley would be mostly able to hold his own at the MLB level right now.   Maybe you and others would have him up already.  The O's have reasons to keep him down and we all know what they are.   You can accept them, or not.  You can whine about them, or not.   Personally I think both the White Sox and the Orioles are acting in the best interests of their team and I have exactly zero problem with them.     And personally I do not think it's worthwhile to chastise or criticize Elias and company for acting in defense of those interests. 

[Sports Guy]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:44 PM, Ohfan67 said:

55 games or 87 games does not make an established major leaguer IMO. There are many examples of players who started their careers hot and never amounted to much. Heck, the rookie of the year lists are full of “who was that guy?” Players. 

But the discussion is about Adley’s ability to hold his own.  Vaughn is doing it.  Vaughn may have even been more advanced than Adley with the bat but Adley is obviously advanced.  
 

I’m sure your argument is sustainability.  That’s fine but I don’t think an extra 200 minor league at bats makes it more likely he will sustain things.

The minor leagues are like college..it’s not for everyone.  The system is in place for a reason but there are always exceptions to the rule.

Adley didn’t need this much MiL time.  If not for covid last year, I think he’s definitely up now.  He should be up anyway but covid slowed that down.

I think it’s an awful decision in a lot of ways but it is what it is.  

[Jagwar]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, we’ve got Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline saying no. 1, BA saying no. 2.   Folks can quibble with it, but it’s hard to deny we have a top level farm system right now.   It’s pretty skewed towards the position players though.  

Maybe Elias' plan next year is to take 20 pitchers in the draft. 

[Jagwar]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:34 AM, LookinUp said:

If Rutschman were drafted by a contender, he'd be an established MLer by now. It's only because of the slow rebuild that he's still in the minors.

Have to think a pandemic-caused lost season has something to do with it too. 

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Skewed towards position players and especially the top 2.  My question is where would it be ranked without those 2.  
 

I think that’s more of a discussion point especially for the crowd that believes we are deep and Elias has done amazing things building the system.

Personally, I feel it would be in the 8-12 range without those 2 which is still very good imo….but those 2 definitely skew things.

And btw, that’s fine.  I would rather have the 2 elite prospects vs 5-10 Solid guys.  

I guess the question is, where would any other team rank if you took away their top 2 players?

You are right the O’s are not super-deep.   They’re not super-shallow, either.   They are probably slightly above average in the depth department (depending how you want to measure it) and then we have the Big Two.  I’d be more comfortable with our system if Kjerstad and Hall were heathy.    

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess the question is, where would any other team rank if you took away their top 2 players?

You are right the O’s are not super-deep.   They’re not super-shallow, either.   They are probably slightly above average in the depth department (depending how you want to measure it) and then we have the Big Two.  I’d be more comfortable with our system if Kjerstad and Hall were heathy.    

Your first question is an excellent one.

The reason I bring that up is because of the reaction people are having about the depth of the system and how when people say the top 2 are driving it, it’s almost as if it’s an insult to people.

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Skewed towards position players and especially the top 2.  My question is where would it be ranked without those 2.  
 

I think that’s more of a discussion point especially for the crowd that believes we are deep and Elias has done amazing things building the system.

Personally, I feel it would be in the 8-12 range without those 2 which is still very good imo….but those 2 definitely skew things.

And btw, that’s fine.  I would rather have the 2 elite prospects vs 5-10 Solid guys.  
 

But yes, it’s the pitching.  Otoh, should we care?  After doing that research on the Cubs and Astros and remembering those teams, they didn’t care about developing pitching.  Maybe we shouldn’t either.  
 

I have been in the jewelry business for 20 years now and the business is all about buying.  It’s not about selling.  You can make a profit on anything if you buy it at the right price.  Maybe this is the principle the Os are thinking for pitching?  That if they have enough depth and potential in their system, that they can always get whatever they want.  It’s really not a bad strategy in a lot of ways especially with the way starters are being handled nowadays.   
 

The key is, will ownership allow that investment?  

We wouldn't be ranked #1 or #2 based on 2 guys either.  Part of that ranking is the increased depth in the system.  And this ranking is without Kjerstad playing one professional game and without Hall who started out the season as if he was taking a big step forward.   Without any of our Latin guys truly establishing themselves as prospects yet.  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your first question is an excellent one.

The reason I bring that up is because of the reaction people are having about the depth of the system and how when people say the top 2 are driving it, it’s almost as if it’s an insult to people.

 

There is depth in the system.  The top two guys are driving the ranking to a large degree.  Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your first question is an excellent one.

The reason I bring that up is because of the reaction people are having about the depth of the system and how when people say the top 2 are driving it, it’s almost as if it’s an insult to people.

 

If you go by Fangraphs, our top two guys have excess value of $172 mm, with everyone else in the system valued at $203 mm.   If you didn’t subtract the top two from the other teams, removing our top two would move us all the way down to 18th place.  But if you did remove the other teams’ top two, we’d fall behind only Pittsburgh ($287 mm), Tampa ($268 mm) and Cleveland ($214 mm).    So, that is a sign that our depth is pretty good.

Source: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There is depth in the system.  The top two guys are driving the ranking to a large degree.  Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. 

The question isn’t if we have depth or not.  The question is how quality is that depth.  
 

I think Hall is a major pivot point for the system.

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The question isn’t if we have depth or not.  The question is how quality is that depth.  
 

I think Hall is a major pivot point for the system.

And Kjerstad.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

And Kjerstad.   

Sure…but we don’t even know what we have in him yet.  Maybe he would have been a bust. (I don’t think so but just saying)

We know what Hall can do.  I happen to agree that his ceiling is probably higher than GRod but I also don’t like his chances of reaching his ceiling compared to Grayson reaching his.  
 

I also think his floor is lower.  His risk profile is higher.  
 

But if he can get healthy and he can keep improving his command and control, he changes a lot for me.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The question isn’t if we have depth or not.  The question is how quality is that depth.  
 

I think Hall is a major pivot point for the system.

We have quality depth but that's a subjective term so you probably aren't going to agree on what's quality depth.  We wouldn't be ranked that high without quality depth, which, by the way, gets deeper with each draft and J2 period.

 

[RZNJ]

59 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Maybe Elias' plan next year is to take 20 pitchers in the draft. 

You joke but his plan could be to go college pitcher heavy at the top of the draft.  You never know.