OBP in the minors

[OriolesMagic83]

The O's have been laggards for years in the OBP category.  Even in the recent "Glory Years" of 2012-2016, the O's were near the top in homers and slugging and lagged in OBP, especially compared to their batting average.  Since Elias has taken over, this has improved for the better.  I know that minor league OBP doesn't always translate to the majors, but you would think that high OBPs in the minors are more likely to translate to higher OBPs in the majors rather than low OBPs in the minors.  

I looked at the OBPs of the full season affiliates and found the following:\

Delmarva  .353 OBP

Aberdeen .338 OBP

Bowie .342 OBP

Norfolk .319 OBP

Somebody did an analysis of the composition of the various minor league teams, and Elias's draft picks were concentrated at Bowie and below.  Most of the prospects of the prospects at Norfolk are either Duquette picks or waiver wire picks by Elias if I remember right.  It's promising to see the improvement in the OBP of the lower minors.  It will be interesting to watch if it makes it to the major league team.  Guys with high OBPs would be valuable to the team, not just as players, but as trade chips. 

 

 

 

 

 

[waynebug]

I saw a very interesting article, somewhere.

It turns out a single is worth 0.8 runs and a walk is worth 0.6 runs (I rounded to a whole number) Singles move the runner on 2nd to 3rd and the runner on 2nd to home.

At least that's the way winning teams look at it.

It shows that walks and OBP are a little overrated.  

And as far as.slugging he pointed out that no one would prefer a homer to 4 singles.  Although the slugging percentage is the same.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, waynebug said:

I saw a very interesting article, somewhere.

It turns out a single is worth 0.8 runs and a walk is worth 0.6 runs (I rounded to a whole number) Singles move the runner on 2nd to 3rd and the runner on 2nd to home.

At least that's the way winning teams look at it.

It shows that walks and OBP are a little overrated.  

And as far as.slugging he pointed out that no one would prefer a homer to 4 singles.  Although the slugging percentage is the same.

That's the way every team looks at it.  That's math.

Of course singles are superior to walks, it's just that walks are superior to making outs.

The best way to score runs is for you hitters to not make outs.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's the way every team looks at it.  That's math.

Of course singles are superior to walks, it's just that walks are superior to making outs.

The best way to score runs is for you hitters to not make outs.

 

There have been several studies showing that OBP is more important than slugging in scoring runs.  I believe a better approximation was OBP doubled plus SLG.  Obviously you would like everyone on your team hitting .300, but in today;s offensive environment that isn't happening.   Having your team put up a .330 OBP might be as good.  It seems like the good O's offenses of recent years were lucky to have 1 player putting up a .350 OBP, often facing off against Yankee/Red Sox teams with several players with high OBPs.  The O's tried to make it up with high home run guys.  That option has sort of fizzled with high launch angle and every player trying to hit home runs. 

[Aglets]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's have been laggards for years in the OBP category.  Even in the recent "Glory Years" of 2012-2016, the O's were near the top in homers and slugging and lagged in OBP, especially compared to their batting average.  Since Elias has taken over, this has improved for the better.  I know that minor league OBP doesn't always translate to the majors, but you would think that high OBPs in the minors are more likely to translate to higher OBPs in the majors rather than low OBPs in the minors.  

I looked at the OBPs of the full season affiliates and found the following:\

Delmarva  .353 OBP

Aberdeen .338 OBP

Bowie .342 OBP

Norfolk .319 OBP

Somebody did an analysis of the composition of the various minor league teams, and Elias's draft picks were concentrated at Bowie and below.  Most of the prospects of the prospects at Norfolk are either Duquette picks or waiver wire picks by Elias if I remember right.  It's promising to see the improvement in the OBP of the lower minors.  It will be interesting to watch if it makes it to the major league team.  Guys with high OBPs would be valuable to the team, not just as players, but as trade chips. 

 

 

 

 

 

For some added context since these numbers have definitely evolved over the last decade or so.

The top OBP in the AL right now is Houston at .339.   The median is Oakland at .316.   O's currently are 13th at .299.

[Aristotelian]

Yeah, DD's approach was almost a case study of what not to do, low walks and high K's. 2018 O's were dead last in BB's, #10 in K's (#3 in AL). Takes many years when you need to change the organization approach from top to bottom. Interestingly, 2018 O's pitchers were #1 in BB's allowed. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

There have been several studies showing that OBP is more important than slugging in scoring runs.  I believe a better approximation was OBP doubled plus SLG.  Obviously you would like everyone on your team hitting .300, but in today;s offensive environment that isn't happening.   Having your team put up a .330 OBP might be as good.  It seems like the good O's offenses of recent years were lucky to have 1 player putting up a .350 OBP, often facing off against Yankee/Red Sox teams with several players with high OBPs.  The O's tried to make it up with high home run guys.  That option has sort of fizzled with high launch angle and every player trying to hit home runs. 

We have stats that assign the proper weights to these things, like wOBA, wRC+, rOBA, Rbat+ and RC/G.  They just don’t get referred to in everyday discussions because the average fan can’t calculate them easily.  OPS has the virtue of being a pretty good statistical measure that is easy to understand and calculate.    

[RZNJ]

It certainly seems as though the Orioles are emphasizing working counts and/or targeting such players.  Walk totals seem to be up all over for their hitters.  Strikeouts also seem to be way up.  We have a lot of players striking out at about 33% in relation to their AB's. Henderson,  despite a great OPS at Delmarva had something like 46 k's in 146 AB's.   That certainly indicates a weakness of some sort but I assume it's part of the process. 

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It certainly seems as though the Orioles are emphasizing working counts and/or targeting such players.  Walk totals seem to be up all over for their hitters.  Strikeouts also seem to be way up.  We have a lot of players striking out at about 33% in relation to their AB's. Henderson,  despite a great OPS at Delmarva had something like 46 k's in 146 AB's.   That certainly indicates a weakness of some sort but I assume it's part of the process. 

Sure, if you work the count you are going to increase both the walk and strikeout rates.

Can't strike out if you put the first pitch in play.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, if you work the count you are going to increase both the walk and strikeout rates.

Can't strike out if you put the first pitch in play.

I guess my point is that those K rates in High A and Low A need to come down at some point.    There may be a player or two who can succeed striking out that much but, generally speaking, it's not good.

[Aristotelian]

I'm more OK with high K/high walk than low/K/low walk (i.e. Hanser Alberto). Of course the ideal is somebody like Rutschman who walks a lot and doesn't strike out but those guys are incredibly rare. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I guess my point is that those K rates in High A and Low A need to come down at some point.    There may be a player or two who can succeed striking out that much but, generally speaking, it's not good.

Not many guys from these teams are going to pan out.  

I think it is mostly just a symptom of the change in philosophy.

The vast majority of the chaff isn't making it regardless.

[Aglets]

Fun facts:

The #1 offensive team in all MLB (Houston) ranks first in OBP and last in strikeouts.   So some evidence that strikeouts are bad for run production.

The #2 offensive team in all MLB (Tampa) ranks only 13th in OBP but has the 2nd most K's in baseball.   So some evidence that strikeouts aren't that bad.  Tampa actually has more walks than Houston.

Happy to help clarify this by muddying the waters, heh.

To be honest I'm not sure there actually is a lot of correlation between K's and run production.....although obviously there is a threshold somewhere.

[Sports Guy]

I know the game is moving to Ks not mattering but I think if you are K’ing a ton in the lower minors that it’s still not a good sign and it is a sign that you have a lot of swing and miss in your bat and that will hurt you long term.

Now maybe the game is shifting enough to where it truly won’t matter but I still think there is a lot of value in batting average.  Hitting 210 is garbage no matter what your emphasis is.  Would really like to see 260ish or better in most cases.  
 

Walking a ton and showing a lot of power no doubt helps that but give me  a 270/340 guy over a 220/350 guy.  I know the OPS is better but I trust the 270/340 guy more when it counts. 
 

I think we have gotten to the point where BA and putting the ball in play is now an underrated thing, after being so overrated for years.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

We have stats that assign the proper weights to these things, like wOBA, wRC+, rOBA, Rbat+ and RC/G.  They just don’t get referred to in everyday discussions because the average fan can’t calculate them easily.  OPS has the virtue of being a pretty good statistical measure that is easy to understand and calculate.    

Put me in the average fan category.  I have limited understanding of wRC and wOBA  and have no idea what rOBA and Rbat mean.  I'm sure all of them point to the O's offense sucking.