Offseason target: Tyler Glasnow

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the rebuild worked and accomplished what they claim it accomplishes, a few million dollars isn’t stopping you from doing anything and if it does, you have completely failed.

A rebuild shouldn’t stand or fall on any one player-related decision.   But it often will stand or fail based on processes that are repeated over and over that are either good or bad.    Paying $15 mm for a  player you think is worth $10 mm is a bad process.   

The point I’m making is hypothetical, not specific to what Glasnow is worth in particular.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Let's say it's $12M. That's a little more than nothing. But it's also whoever we trade to get him. Who would Tampa want? Again, if Elias is trying to implement the Tampa Model, why are we trading prospects to Tampa? And paying $12M. Doesn't make a whole lotta sense to me. I'd rather just sign a guy, preferably one with no known injury risk. 

I think you are taking the Tampa model Stuff too far.  
 

They can spend a lot more than Tampa.  The Tampa model is being smart.  Everyone wants to do that but not many can accomplish it.

But Tampa is hindered by money.  We aren’t.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

A rebuild shouldn’t stand or fall on any one player-related decision.   But it often will stand or fail based on processes that are repeated over and over that are either good or bad.    Paying $15 mm for a  player you think is worth $10 mm is a bad process.   

The point I’m making is hypothetical, not specific to what Glasnow is worth in particular.   
 

I never said he is worth 10M, so not sure where you got that?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said he is worth 10M, so not sure where you got that?

We are clearly talking past each other.   I was responding to your point that the difference between paying $10 mm and $15 mm shouldn’t matter, because $5 mm is unimportant to a rebuild.   I don’t agree with that conceptually.   It’s unrelated to whether Glasnow himself is worth $10 mm, $15 mm or any other number.   

So let’s get back to Glasnow.   Wouid you be willing to sign him to a two-year deal if he were a free agent, and if so, what’s the most you’d pay him?

What I’d be tempted to do is pay a little more for those two years in exchange for getting an option for a third year.  
 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are clearly talking past each other.   I was responding to your point that the difference between paying $10 mm and $15 mm shouldn’t matter, because $5 mm is unimportant to a rebuild.   I don’t agree with that conceptually.   It’s unrelated to whether Glasnow himself is worth $10 mm, $15 mm or any other number.   

So let’s get back to Glasnow.   Wouid you be willing to sign him to a two-year deal if he were a free agent, and if so, what’s the most you’d pay him?

What I’d be tempted to do is pay a little more for those two years in exchange for getting an option for a third year.  
 

You were quibbling over whether he would get a raise or not.  Whether he makes the same or gets a 3-5M bump, it’s irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.  That’s my point.  You think that little bit of money matters.  If it does, I hope the team moves to Nashville and we get an expansion team.

And of course I would sign him.  I already said what I would give him.

He would get a 2/12-15 deal with hopes I could include a 2024 option based on reaching 100 IP for another 15ishM.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are taking the Tampa model Stuff too far.  
 

They can spend a lot more than Tampa.  The Tampa model is being smart.  Everyone wants to do that but not many can accomplish it.

But Tampa is hindered by money.  We aren’t.  
 

 

I think you are overestimating our payroll flexibility. Even if we have been able to run above average payroll in the past, we don't know how much the MASN case changes things.

That said, I would rather sign a guy straight up than trade for a guy that costs money and prospects and still has a high risk of not panning out.  Especially if, like you are saying, payroll flexibility is our comparative advantage. As you know I am in favor of Ray/Stroman/Desclafini/Eduardo/etc. If not this year, then next year. I do think we can afford to add payroll but that doesn't mean throwing money around at high risk/high reward plays.

[Sports Guy]

The team can add significant payroll from where it is now and you are about to have a lot of guys making no money and producing at a high level.

The money is largely irrelevant unless the Angelos family just decides to steal it and lie to the fans.  That’s always possible with them but I tend to doubt it will be that bad.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You were quibbling over whether he would get a raise or not.  Whether he makes the same or gets a 3-5M bump, it’s irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.  That’s my point.  You think that little bit of money matters.  If it does, I hope the team moves to Nashville and we get an expansion team.

And of course I would sign him.  I already said what I would give him.

He would get a 2/12-15 deal with hopes I could include a 2024 option based on reaching 100 IP for another 15ishM.

I wasn’t quibbling, just observing what usually goes on in arbitration with injured players.  It’s not relevant to what we’d pay him as a free agent, but somewhat relevant to what we’d pay him if he were acquired in a trade with Tampa where we inherited his Arb position.   

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think you are overestimating our payroll flexibility. Even if we have been able to run above average payroll in the past, we don't know how much the MASN case changes things.

The O’s have had a pretty good idea of the outcome of the MASN case since sometime in 2012.  The original arbitration hearings too place before that season, and the panel delayed issuing a final decision while MLB tried to broker a resolution that wouid have involved selling the TV rights to a third party.   The outcome of the arbitration was basically known to the parties then, it just wasn’t official.  It was made official in June 2014.   Even though MASN and the Orioles appealed the decision, they absolutely would have had to plan their budget on the basis that they would lose.   So, I believe the top end budgets of 2016-18 were achieved even though the O’s knew how the MASN case could turn out.   

I think bigger issues now are (1) lower MASN revenue due to cord-cutting, and (2) lower attendance and ticket revenue.   That said, I have little doubt that the O’s could get back into the $125 mm range on a steady basis and could go above that on occasion.
 

[RZNJ]

A few thoughts.  No problem trying to get a pitcher like Glasnow depending on cost.   Typically, a player's agent is find signing on for two years when the first year his player is just rehabbing.   However, he's unlikely to sign for more than 2 years as they typically want to re-establish value in that second year and look for the big FA contract after that year.   So, I think it would be very difficult to sign him for 2 years with an option for a 3rd or anything beyond the 2 years.   

Player cost?  I have no idea but again, this is throwing all of the eggs into the 2023 basket thinking that SG is proposing.   I think most, if not all, major acquisitions should be players under team control for at least the next 4 years.    What's the best case scenario.   He pitches like a CY Young in the first half of 2023 and your team is the hunt for the wild card.   What are the odds on both of those things?   SG would have about 3-4 other 2023 moves up his sleeve like the Chapman move.   It's gambling chips you don't need to put on the table for a longshot.   These are chips you can use later for longer term pieces.   Sure some of our chips will lose value but others will gain value.   If you have a crystal ball and know which ones to deal your probably are smarter than all of the GM's in baseball.    

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A few thoughts.  No problem trying to get a pitcher like Glasnow depending on cost.   Typically, a player's agent is find signing on for two years when the first year his player is just rehabbing.   However, he's unlikely to sign for more than 2 years as they typically want to re-establish value in that second year and look for the big FA contract after that year.   So, I think it would be very difficult to sign him for 2 years with an option for a 3rd or anything beyond the 2 years.   

Player cost?  I have no idea but again, this is throwing all of the eggs into the 2023 basket thinking that SG is proposing.   I think most, if not all, major acquisitions should be players under team control for at least the next 4 years.    What's the best case scenario.   He pitches like a CY Young in the first half of 2023 and your team is the hunt for the wild card.   What are the odds on both of those things?   SG would have about 3-4 other 2023 moves up his sleeve like the Chapman move.   It's gambling chips you don't need to put on the table for a longshot.   These are chips you can use later for longer term pieces.   Sure some of our chips will lose value but others will gain value.   If you have a crystal ball and know which ones to deal your probably are smarter than all of the GM's in baseball.    

I agree that in an ideal world, you aren’t acquiring short term guys in trades and that includes Chapman, a guy like.  
 

But as I just said in another thread…all of this comes back to ownership.  What level of commitment are they going to have?  If they are going to continue plodding along like this, you don’t even consider a guy like Chapman.   
 

My thought is that not only do we have some elite guys that make this team better fast but that the organization will spend and Elias will make the right moves.  I have a lot of trust in that right now although the ownership commitment is my biggest worry by far.

But if im Wrong in having that trust and ownership isn’t all in than you just sit around and wait and hope for lightning in a bottle and you keep your guys for right now.  

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree that in an ideal world, you aren’t acquiring short term guys in trades and that includes Chapman, a guy like.  
 

But as I just said in another thread…all of this comes back to ownership.  What level of commitment are they going to have?  If they are going to continue plodding along like this, you don’t even consider a guy like Chapman.   
 

My thought is that not only do we have some elite guys that make this team better fast but that the organization will spend and Elias will make the right moves.  I have a lot of trust in that right now although the ownership commitment is my biggest worry by far.

But if im Wrong in having that trust and ownership isn’t all in than you just sit around and wait and hope for lightning in a bottle and you keep your guys for right now.  

I think we are a year away from having the depth in the system to start making the trades you are looking to make.    The optimum scenario is when guys like Hays and Santander are performing at the ML level and you have Neustrom and Stowers performing (stuck) in AAA, with guys like Kjerstad and Cowers looking like studs in the minors.    When Nunez, Mateo, Jones are being pushed by Westburg, Ortiz, and Vavra at AAA with MI prospects in AA.   The Latin program is just going to be hitting low A next year.   The pipeline is in the works.   Still has a ways to go.

If you can't wait for the process to bear fruit, you can sign mid level free agents to plug some holes or you can hope that Means, GRod, maybe Baumann or Bradish or Hall form the core of a promising rotation by next August with cause for optimism for the 2023 season.

[Sports Guy]

If we are a year away from making those trades than the farm system is overrated.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If we are a year away from making those trades than the farm system is overrated.

 

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If we are a year away from making those trades than the farm system is overrated.

I don't follow your logic.  I think it's because there isn't any.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

I don't follow your logic.  I think it's because there isn't any.

If it’s the #1 system and the system is deep beyond the top 2, you can easily make these types of trades because it means you not only have depth but very good depth.

If that isn’t true than the farm system is overrated.