Cedric Mullins - 30/30 ?

[sportsfan8703]

I really hope he gets 30/30. What a story he has been. 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, he’s not good

He's not, but he's shown flashes.  I wouldn't give up on that guy just yet.  

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

He's not, but he's shown flashes.  I wouldn't give up on that guy just yet.  

Give up?  No.  But I’m not guaranteeing him a spot in the pen for 2022 either.

[Tony-OH]

On 9/1/2021 at 10:08 AM, interloper said:

He's awesome. Unquestionably. Love the guy and hope he reaches 30/30, which I think he will. 

However, I'm gonna be that guy and bring up the fact that his defense has been pretty (read: hugely?) disappointing this season. I didn't really notice it until I started to note a string of batted balls that he probably should have caught with his speed out there. The numbers don't lie either: 

.984 F% with 5 errors

-4.8 UZR

-1.1 RngR

Pretty much every defensive metric I could find is below average. So that's something I hope he looks to improve in the offseason. 

Yet statcast info shows him as a 7 Outs above average for a center fielder and 2% success added. That matches my scouting as well. There were a few balls in that I can recall that he may have been able to catch but may have been scared off by an infielder coming out that could have hurt his numbers, but I question any data that puts him as a below average defender.

His reaction has been his worse (-1.1 ft/s below average) but he's never been super great in this aspect. He makes up for it with his burst (1.4 ft/s above average) and career best 0.5 route which gives him an above average 0.7 ft/sec better than average while covering an above average 34.3 f/s.

He's one of the best and statcast which is not subjective in any way pretty much proves that.

[jabba72]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yet statcast info shows him as a 7 Outs above average for a center fielder and 2% success added. That matches my scouting as well. There were a few balls in that I can recall that he may have been able to catch but may have been scared off by an infielder coming out that could have hurt his numbers, but I question any data that puts him a a below average defender.

His reaction has been his worse (-1.1 ft/s below average) but he's never been super great in this aspect. He makes up for it with his burst (1.4 ft/s above average) and career best 0.5 route which gives him an above average 0.7 ft/sec better than average while covering an above average 34.3 f/s.

He's one of the best and statcast which is not subjective in any way pretty much proves that.

Ball popped out of his glove on a diving attempt last night. Not nitpicking, but I dont know if he's a gold glover out there. He's above average though. 

[Tony-OH]

On 9/1/2021 at 12:11 PM, Sports Guy said:

I think the power sees the biggest drop off.  He should be able to hit for a good average if he continues to be even halfway decent vs lefties.  
 

I would think a 280/350 BA/OBP line is obtainable.  The speed will be there, the defense is good but not great.

The power is what is separating him this year. I expect to see a pretty big drop in that. 
 

Part of me really wants to see him dealt this offseason but I think we need more info on a guy like Cowser in CF.  
 

I think he’s a 1.5-3WAR guy going forward.

I'm just wondering why you think this? Mullins has always been a guy with pop and obviously he's found a way to tap into it more often this year. Will he flirt with 30 homers every year, maybe not, but I can see him being an 18-25 guy.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm just wondering why you think this? Mullins has always been a guy with pop and obviously he's found a way to tap into it more often this year. Will he flirt with 30 homers every year, maybe not, but I can see him being an 18-25 guy.

Well that would be a drop off, right?  

I would bet on his slugging being closer to the 425 area than 525.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well that would be a drop off, right?  

I would get on his slugging being closer to the 425 area than 525.

525 to 425 would be a huge drop.  Like Tony said, he's always had some power.  475 is the midpoint.  I'd bet on that.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

525 to 425 would be a huge drop.  Like Tony said, he's always had some power.  475 is the midpoint.  I'd bet on that.

 

Well, the wording I used was closer to 425 than 525 (ie, I’m expecting something 474 or lower).  Right now, his slugging is approaching 550.  I’m expecting a 100ish point drop from that number, give or take.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

525 to 425 would be a huge drop.  Like Tony said, he's always had some power.  475 is the midpoint.  I'd bet on that.

 

In the minors, Mullins had a career .161 ISO, and was never over .200 even in his best seasons.   Right now he’s at .235.   His xISO is .177.    I don’t think xISO adjusts for ballpark, though.   He’s got a .313 home ISO, .159 on the road.   So, I’m willing to think that he can be a .200 ISO guy as a result of playing half his games in a stadium that suits him to a T.   

Long way of saying, I think a .475 SLG is likely if he can keep his average at .275 or better.   
 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In the minors, Mullins had a career .161 ISO, and was never over .200 even in his best seasons.   Right now he’s at .235.   His xISO is .177.    I don’t think xISO adjusts for ballpark, though.   He’s got a .313 home ISO, .159 on the road.   So, I’m willing to think that he can be a .200 ISO guy as a result of playing half his games in a stadium that suits him to a T.   

Long way of saying, I think a .475 SLG is likely if he can keep his average at .275 or better.   
 

Yeah, but he was switch hitting in the minors!!!  LOL

Do they break ISO down to each side?

[survivedc]

53 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yet statcast info shows him as a 7 Outs above average for a center fielder and 2% success added. That matches my scouting as well. There were a few balls in that I can recall that he may have been able to catch but may have been scared off by an infielder coming out that could have hurt his numbers, but I question any data that puts him as a below average defender.

His reaction has been his worse (-1.1 ft/s below average) but he's never been super great in this aspect. He makes up for it with his burst (1.4 ft/s above average) and career best 0.5 route which gives him an above average 0.7 ft/sec better than average while covering an above average 34.3 f/s.

He's one of the best and statcast which is not subjective in any way pretty much proves that.

I have been listening and not watching recently: has there been any drop off in his defense more recently? Early in the year it seemed he got to everything, flying all over the place. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he took it easy here and there towards the end of a lost season.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I have been listening and not watching recently: has there been any drop off in his defense more recently? Early in the year it seemed he got to everything, flying all over the place. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he took it easy here and there towards the end of a lost season.

Take it easy?  Come on!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

59 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I have been listening and not watching recently: has there been any drop off in his defense more recently? Early in the year it seemed he got to everything, flying all over the place. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he took it easy here and there towards the end of a lost season.

Mullins could be wearing down. Mullins has played in 134 games this season and before that the most games he played in any year was 124 in 2016. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mullin000ced

[Ruzious]

If he doesn't extend his homerun streak to 4 games tonight, we'll know it's just because he's tired.