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No 4-32 Redux


LA2

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The Orioles headed into the last 36 games of the season with resounding wins of 10-6 and 13-1 over the Angels, ending the 19-consecutive losses streak that had made them the easy target of pundits kvetching about "tanking" and saddled them with the moniker of "historically bad." But then they lost four straight to the Rays & Jays and I began to worry about the return of the ghost of the team's 4-32 closing out of the 2002 season--especially since that team had a much deeper, more stable starting rotation than this year's (Rodrigo Lopez's 15-win season, Sidney Ponson, Scott Erickson, and Jason Johnson were the front four and who can forget Travis Driskill?). It was also a team that was good enough to have played .500 ball (63-63) going into the last week of August--after four straight wins against, ironically, the Rays & Jays.

The Orioles have now gone 5-7 since game #126 and so are guaranteed not to restage the 4-32 farce. Turning our perspective 180 degrees, they would have to go 22-3 the remaining 25 games to match the 2002 team's win total and the 2020 team's winning percentage--Not going to happen, of course.

But 9-16 (.360 winning pct.) would match the 54 wins of Brandon Hyde's first season (post-Manny, AJ, Zack, etc., with strong contributions from Villar, Trey, Nunez, and Santander and 57 starts by Bundy and Means). And they will only have to go 2-23 to match Buck Showalter's last season, which gave Bundy, Cobb, Cashner, Gausman, and Hess 127 starts. I would be shocked if they can't achieve the latter, but the toughness of the teams we will be facing--all battling for post-season slots except for one series vs. Texas--will make the former mark a real challenge to reach.

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  • LA2 changed the title to 4-32 Redux? Will Not Happen

People never seem to learn the old axiom that you are not as bad as you look during your worst losing times, nor are you as good as you look when things are going great.

During the 19 game losing streak you started to hear talk of us only winning 42 games and competing with the 1960 Mets, or how a finish like 2002 was "likely".   People take a 19 game stretch and project it out as if it is a true indicator of the team's talent.   It's no more a true indicator than our current 7-7 stretch is.  

Since the All Star Break we've had a 10-6 stretch, an 0-19 stretch, and now a 7-7 stretch (that includes 4 1 run losses so we've been in just about every game).

I think we'll probably win more than 50 and it's certainly not out of the question that we win more games this year than any Oriole team since 2017.

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With bad teams, the specter of a long losing streak always looms as a possibility.   The team won 10 out of 15 coming out of the all star break, then lost 19 in a row.   So, the fact that they’ve gone 7-7 since doesn’t really tell me what will happen next.   I’d really love to avoid any more really long losing streaks, for the simple reason that they tend to choke off any rational discussion and the whole OH board just goes into “everything sucks” mode.   

I think the most likely scenario is the team wins 6-10 games the rest of the way to finish at 51-55 wins.   But I’m not ruling out winning 4 or less, either.    For me, I’d prefer to win as many as we can, see some decent performances from some of the younger players, and not worry about having the no. 1 vs. no. 2 pick.   
 

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s hope they go through a bad stretch to get that first pick but I tend to think they are better than Zona.  I just hope they don’t fall to the third or fourth pick.

Might not be good for the team but it would be pretty funny if Elias spent this much effort trying to tank the season and they win enough to pick fourth anyway.

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19 minutes ago, LA2 said:

What is your guess of what that W/L record would have to be?

Arizona has a tough closing schedule.

Os schedule is actually easier than Arizona and the series with the Rangers is critical.

Pirates probably have the easiest schedule of the 4.

Honestly, I think if the Os win 52 or more games, they pick second at best.  I’m going to guess that Texas and Pitt win 55-58 games.  Arizona somewhere in the 48-51 game area.

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17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Might not be good for the team but it would be pretty funny if Elias spent this much effort trying to tank the season and they win enough to pick fourth anyway.

How about a webcam of Elias after every win? I'd be down with that.

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I think we got a good prospect in Cowser where we picked this year.  I think Kjerstad could still turn out to be a good prospect where we picked last year.  I'm pretty sure that there will be a good player available no matter where we pick next year.

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1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I think we got a good prospect in Cowser where we picked this year.  I think Kjerstad could still turn out to be a good prospect where we picked last year.  I'm pretty sure that there will be a good player available no matter where we pick next year.

Sure, first or fourth a pick can end up great or a bust.

 

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3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I think we got a good prospect in Cowser where we picked this year.  I think Kjerstad could still turn out to be a good prospect where we picked last year.  I'm pretty sure that there will be a good player available no matter where we pick next year.

Yes but the overall history of the draft tells you that the first pick is easily the most valuable pick.(and second pick is easily the most valuable after that)  If you are going to tank and be this bad, you want to have at least a top 2 pick.

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