Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[Sports Guy]

Rutschman is clearly the better prospect to me.  I don’t really care about the rankings, I care what I see.  
 

Wieters  came to the majors as a slow, robotic like athlete with a long/slow swing.  Just watching the 2 and seeing how much more athletic and fluid Adley is, puts him over the top fairly easily for me.  I had doubts about Wieters living up to the hype when I saw him.  I don’t have that with Adley.  
 

Wieters is a guy who peaked offensively in the minors.  That happens.  It’s not unusual.  It doesn’t mean he wasn’t valuable as a MLer, it just means his bat wasn’t as great as his career MiL OpS showed.  (Or even close to it)
 

If Adley isn’t an 850+ OPS I will be disappointed.  He may not hit for a great average but the OBP and power will be there and he has GG ability.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

Ideally a decent veteran that can catch a few games here and there, dont break the bank on, but more importantly spending time with Adley and almost like a player/coach on the bench.

You know Hyder maxed out at AAA but if we're flirting with Ryan Ripken this month and can't afford announcers and stuff maybe his contract could flex to player/manager for a little bit of 2022.

 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but not all #1 guys are created equal.

I think that’s sort of 20/20 hindsight.   It’s not like Wieters was no. 1 because there were no other good candidates.   David Price was no. 2, and he was a 1:1 pick who’d already had a successful major league debut and pitched in the ALCS and WS.   Wieters beat him out as no. 1 because he was that highly regarded on the strength of what he did in the minors in 2008 (which exceeds anything Rutschman did this year by a significant margin IMO).    The only reason to say Rutschman is more highly regarded is because in hindsight we know Wieters wasn’t as good as the pundits thought at the time.   But at the time, opinions of Wieters were at least on the same level as for Rutschman now.

[Pickles]

42 minutes ago, interloper said:

He was the #1 prospect in 2009. Adley is the #1 prospect in 2021. Adley is still a better prospect because he has better tools and was the higher draft pick. 

Says who?  You?  Sports Guy?

Wieters had a better arm.

Wieters had more power.

Does AR have a better hit tool?

That seems to be the hope.  That he isn't going to come up and hit 250 like Wieters did.  But what is that based on?  Certainly not their amateur/MiL performances.

Frobby said it and I'll repeat: NOTHING besides hindsight suggests that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

[Pickles]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Rutschman is clearly the better prospect to me.  I don’t really care about the rankings, I care what I see.  
 

Wieters  came to the majors as a slow, robotic like athlete with a long/slow swing.  Just watching the 2 and seeing how much more athletic and fluid Adley is, puts him over the top fairly easily for me.  I had doubts about Wieters living up to the hype when I saw him.  I don’t have that with Adley.  
 

Wieters is a guy who peaked offensively in the minors.  That happens.  It’s not unusual.  It doesn’t mean he wasn’t valuable as a MLer, it just means his bat wasn’t as great as his career MiL OpS showed.  (Or even close to it)
 

If Adley isn’t an 850+ OPS I will be disappointed.  He may not hit for a great average but the OBP and power will be there and he has GG ability.

An 850 OPS is roughly a 130 OPS+.

That's higher than the career OPS+ of Johnny Bench.

MIght I suggest you will be disappointed.

[Pickles]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s sort of 20/20 hindsight.   It’s not like Wieters was no. 1 because there were no other good candidates.   David Price was no. 2, and he was a 1:1 pick who’d already had a successful major league debut and pitched in the ALCS and WS.   Wieters beat him out as no. 1 because he was that highly regarded on the strength of what he did in the minors in 2008 (which exceeds anything Rutschman did this year by a significant margin IMO).    The only reason to say Rutschman is more highly regarded is because in hindsight we know Wieters wasn’t as good as the pundits thought at the time.   But at the time, opinions of Wieters were at least on the same level as for Rutschman now.

I don't think you need to codify that with an IMO, imo.

Wieters had a demonstrably superior MiL career to AR.  It's basically a fact.

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree Severino is not a long term Oriole.  But maybe one more year.

No way we go to arbitration with him again or paying him anywhere near whatever his projected arb figure turns out to be.   The only ways he is an Oriole next year is if we non-tender him and then he accepts a minimum salary deal or even a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.   Or if he wants to come back so badly that he signs a deal for the likes of $1mm pre-arb, which seems very unlikely, especially with Adley looming.

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't think you need to codify that with an IMO, imo.

Wieters had a demonstrably superior MiL career to AR.  It's basically a fact.

Maybe Rutschman just needs more time to develop

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s sort of 20/20 hindsight.   It’s not like Wieters was no. 1 because there were no other good candidates.   David Price was no. 2, and he was a 1:1 pick who’d already had a successful major league debut and pitched in the ALCS and WS.   Wieters beat him out as no. 1 because he was that highly regarded on the strength of what he did in the minors in 2008 (which exceeds anything Rutschman did this year by a significant margin IMO).    The only reason to say Rutschman is more highly regarded is because in hindsight we know Wieters wasn’t as good as the pundits thought at the time.   But at the time, opinions of Wieters were at least on the same level as for Rutschman now.

It’s not hindsight.  In every sport, there is a top prospect..a #1 pick, etc…Trevor Lawrence was just the #1 pick and was universally recognized as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.  Plenty of QBs have gone #1 since then but Lawrence grades out higher.

Wander Franco was just the #1 prospect in baseball.  To me, he’s a better #1 than Adley.  Hell, I don’t even think Adley should be ranked #1 now.

But I think he has a higher ceiling than Wieters did.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Maybe Rutschman just needs more time to develop

A couple more years down there, he might just build himself up enough.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Pickles said:

An 850 OPS is roughly a 130 OPS+.

That's higher than the career OPS+ of Johnny Bench.

MIght I suggest you will be disappointed.

Adley may not do that for his career…but I think he should and will do that for 3-5 years.  Bench was putting up OpS+ Of 120+ into his 30s.  I’m not suggesting Adley will do that, at least not if he is a full time catcher.

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

So who is your backup catcher?

Curt Casali

or some perennial backup who will come cheaper than Severino and won't be any worse at actually catching, like Alex Avila or Sendy Leon or Robinson Chirinos or Austin Romine.

Or maybe another team doesn't want to go to arbitraiton with a backup C and pay him $3 million or something and he gets non-tendered and that guy is better than Pedro:   Cam Gallagher?  Danny Jansen?

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Says who?  You?  Sports Guy?

Wieters had a better arm.

Wieters had more power.

Does AR have a better hit tool?

That seems to be the hope.  That he isn't going to come up and hit 250 like Wieters did.  But what is that based on?  Certainly not their amateur/MiL performances.

Frobby said it and I'll repeat: NOTHING besides hindsight suggests that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

Who says he has a better arm?  Wieters was a far better defensive catcher than anyone thought he would be.  As a prospect, defense wasn’t his calling card at all.

More power?  In 80 less at bats, Adley has the same amount of doubles and 8 less homers and that is with him dealing with mono for some time in 2019 and missing a year of development last year.

 

 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley may not do that for his career…but I think he should and will do that for 3-5 years.  Bench was putting up OpS+ Of 120+ into his 30s.  I’m not suggesting Adley will do that, at least not if he is a full time catcher.

If he catches 130 games and puts up an OPS+ of 130 for five years, he's about half way to the Hall of Fame.

Might I suggest you will be disappointed.

Much of what worked against Wieters every really reaching his offensive ceiling, will be working against Rutschman too.

Namely, the burden of the tools of ignorance.

I think AR is going to be a hell of a player.  I just don't think he's hitting 3-4 on a playoff team.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Who says he has a better arm?  Wieters was a far better defensive catcher than anyone thought he would be.  As a prospect, defense wasn’t his calling card at all.

More power?  In 80 less at bats, Adley has the same amount of doubles and 8 less homers and that is with him dealing with mono for some time in 2019 and missing a year of development last year.

 

 

Wieters was a college closer.  He went over 95+ off the mound.  He had the better arm.

Wieters was also bigger and stronger, and as you point out, a more productive power hitter in the MiLs.

It's not controversial at all to state that Wieters was seen as having more power and a better arm as a prospect than AR.