Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[Aristotelian]

If Rutschman lives up to optimistic expectations he will be a MOO bat. Of course that is not guaranteed. For what it's worth he's been batting #2 for Norfolk.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

You just can't walk away- even when given the opportunity.

One guy lukewarmly agrees with you and you just have to crow about it from the rooftops.  Can't make this up indeed.

I hope Tony chimes in.  He is somebody who can shed some light on this.  He'd be very qualified- although no man- even your dear Callis- is an oracle.

I repeat what I said about them as prospects.

If you're looking solely at tools as evaluated as MiLers, Adley gets the advantage in glove and speed.  Wieters in power, arm, and hit tool.

My sole point was anyone who is claiming AR is a better prospect than MW was, is wrong.  To say they're similar prospects, I wouldn't argue.  But to claim AR is superior, is just false.

I'll let Tony add to that if he wants to.  He's about the only person who could sway me much on that statement.

Now in regards to what that looks like at the ML level, I would agree that MW's ML career was on the low end of the spectrum of probabilities for what it might have looked like.  Nowhere near the lowest, but I would certainly say under the 50th percentile.  

So yeah, it's easy to say AR probably surpasses MW's career- even though they're in the same category prospect wise.  But that doesn't mean he's automatically going to go to the 96% and be Johnny Bench- even with the caveat of "only" for 3-5 years.  And if you want a 130+ OPS with GG C defense for 130 games a night, then yes, you're talking about 6+ WAR and Johnny Bench.

That's extremely rare.  Me and you have seen it with our own eyes twice, without needles being involved.  You have NO idea the physical toll that it takes to catch and produce like that.  You mock me for having a far greater understanding of it, simply because I try to educate you.

I can't tell you what to be disappointed in or not.  But I can tell you what is reasonable.

I make the analogy of investing.  Every investment is a range of probable outcomes.  Expecting, and being disappointed with less that the 90% positive outcome, is unreasonable.

The fact that all of this is based solely on your faith in your own prescience makes it all that much less convincing. 

If you really want to go round and round answer me these two questions:

1) Why didn't you call out Wieter's "slow bat" and "lack of athleticism" when he was hitting .355 at Bowie?  You claim you never saw him in the minors?  I saw dozens and dozens of his highlights on this website alone.  I even believe they live streamed the Bowie playoffs that year on this website.  Surely you saw him play plenty in the MiLs, and you never once said "slow bat?"  Why?

2) Were you or were you not catching vapors 4 months ago about AR's supposed "slow bat" when he struggled a bit out of the gate at Bowie this year?  So how many times exactly have you seen him this year?  How many times did it take for you to sing a different tune? 

 

I never saw anything in Bowie.  Maybe it was on here but I didn’t watch or see it.  I don’t recall ever seeing anything like that on here but maybe it was?  I really don’t know.

I have seen enough video of Adley to feel far differently about him based on initial evaluations vs Wieters.  Why is that such a big deal to you?  You seem to want to b*tch and moan about it but why do you care?  It’s my opinion.  I was right about Wieters.  We will see if I am about Adley.  If im Not, no biggie.  It likely won’t change your life or mine.

And if you think my evaluation of Adley is based on solely my opinion, you are a clueless person.  I’m taking into account the evaluations of everyone and everything I read, the stats he has put up, the leadership he shows, etc…

And by the way, your “sole point” is saying you know more than Callis.  I hope you realize that.  Talk about arrogance.

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

If Rutschman lives up to optimistic expectations he will be a MOO bat. Of course that is not guaranteed. For what it's worth he's been batting #2 for Norfolk.

He’s batting #2..and his OpS is over 900. That’s a MOO bat no matter what number in the lineup he is.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

It was just basically in a state of permanent disfigurement for two summers.

Catching messes your fingers, hands, and wrists up.

Guess what you need to hit?

So did you break your thumb or no?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

So did you break your thumb or no?

The more accurate term is probably severe dislocation.  And yes.  Monthly.

[7Mo]

Just now, Pickles said:

The more accurate term is probably severe dislocation.  And yes.  Monthly.

So when you said you "broke it so many times", you meant you severely dislocated it?

[Pickles]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I never saw anything in Bowie.  Maybe it was on here but I didn’t watch or see it.  I don’t recall ever seeing anything like that on here but maybe it was?  I really don’t know.

I have seen enough video of Adley to feel far differently about him based on initial evaluations vs Wieters.  Why is that such a big deal to you?  You seem to want to b*tch and moan about it but why do you care?  It’s my opinion.  I was right about Wieters.  We will see if I am about Adley.  If im Not, no biggie.  It likely won’t change your life or mine.

And if you think my evaluation of Adley is based on solely my opinion, you are a clueless person.  I’m taking into account the evaluations of everyone and everything I read, the stats he has put up, the leadership he shows, etc…

And by the way, your “sold point” is saying you know more than Callis.  I hope you realize that.  Talk about arrogance.

I find it hard to believe that you miss much on this site.  I believe full Wieters at-bats were posted in the Minors sections by Just D.  Again, I recall the playoffs being livestreamed.  Certainly I remember the same kind of video highlights available here as w Adley.

I think this is you inventing narratives in your head.  You weren't "right" about Wieters.  He won GGs, went to All-Star games, and received MVP votes, and was instrumental in turning this franchise around.  Is that what you predicted?  Just exactly what amazing prediction did you make regarding Wieters?  And when?  That he'd win GGs, and go to All-Star games, but not be.......... Johnny Bench?...... because he had a "slow bat" and was "unathletic?"

You're a real prophet.

And as far as, "Why do I care?"

"Why do you care if I care?"

This is a discussion board.  If you don't want feedback, then don't discuss.  And, of course, that reveals much about you: You don't want to discuss.  You want to lecture.

I return to the investment analogy.  We are all invested in this team.  We are all shareholders in that sense.  And that is what we argue about mostly.  I think you are making bad presumptions.  And I want to say so.  So I will.

 

[Pickles]

15 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

So when you said you "broke it so many times", you meant you severely dislocated it?

Yes.  I'm sorry to have mislead you so badly and to have used such hyperbolic language.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I find it hard to believe that you miss much on this site.  I believe full Wieters at-bats were posted in the Minors sections by Just D.  Again, I recall the playoffs being livestreamed.  Certainly I remember the same kind of video highlights available here as w Adley.

I think this is you inventing narratives in your head.  You weren't "right" about Wieters.  He won GGs, went to All-Star games, and received MVP votes, and was instrumental in turning this franchise around.  Is that what you predicted?  Just exactly what amazing prediction did you make regarding Wieters?  And when?  That he'd win GGs, and go to All-Star games, but not be.......... Johnny Bench?...... because he had a "slow bat" and was "unathletic?"

You're a real prophet.

And as far as, "Why do I care?"

"Why do you care if I care?"

This is a discussion board.  If you don't want feedback, then don't discuss.  And, of course, that reveals much about you: You don't want to discuss.  You want to lecture.

I return to the investment analogy.  We are all invested in this team.  We are all shareholders in that sense.  And that is what we argue about mostly.  I think you are making bad presumptions.  And I want to say so.  So I will.

 

Good for you.   I can’t wait to hear more stories about your failed attempt at being an athlete.  It was literally the best thing you have ever given to this site.  You actually gave us comedy.  Thank you for that.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s batting #2..and his OpS is over 900. That’s a MOO bat no matter what number in the lineup he is.

Some fans are still jaded over Wieters not being "Mauer with Power", but AR is projecting to be a MOO bat like you said. Maybe he won't, but I'm not going to assume AR is going to hit like Wieters because they were both the #1 catching prospect in MLB. 

If Rutschman continues to draw walks at high rate with the Orioles his OPS should be just fine. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes they were....as they are with Adley.  The scouts were wrong (and I felt that the moment I saw him) on Wieters but I don't feel they will be with Rutschman.

We are all hoping that’s true.   I don’t think it will take that long to find out one way or the other.   

[Sports Guy]

I went back and looked at multiple threads about Wieters time in the minors and never saw one video.  They may have existed but I didn’t see them then and I don’t see them Now but maybe they appeared in threads I missed. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Good for you.   I can’t wait to hear more stories about your failed attempt at being an athlete.  It was literally the best thing you have ever given to this site.  You actually gave us comedy.  Thank you for that.

You're just a sad, bitter little man.

My thoughts turn to Norm Macdonald.  Freshly passed away.  The most brilliant comedian I believe I'll ever see.  Dead of cancer.  Which he hid from the world.  And carried himself.

Norm didn't lose his battle with cancer.  It was a draw at least.

 

And I'm not a failed athlete.  I didn't make a million dollars, but I carry with me what I learned.

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I went back and looked at multiple threads about Wieters time in the minors and never saw one video.  They may have existed but I didn’t see them then and I don’t see them Now but maybe they appeared in threads I missed. 

Videos weren’t as universal back in 2007 to 2009 and from my recollection most videos that existed weren’t even HD. Plus smart phones were still in their infancy.

Also baseball compared to football and basketball was really behind the ball on promoting videos on social media to engage fan interest. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Videos weren’t as universal back in 2007 to 2009 and from my recollection most videos that existed weren’t even HD. Plus smart phones were still in their infancy.

Also baseball compared to football and basketball was really behind the ball on promoting videos on social media to engage fan interest. 

I’m aware but salty cucumber said there were videos of Wieters everywhere on here.  Of course, he hasn’t actually produced them (just like he hasn’t produced scouting reports saying Wieters was better than Adley in the areas he said) but that doesn’t really stop him from Saying it.