Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

[waynebug]

He thinks the return would be about what the Mariners got for Paxton or the Twins got for Jose Berrios. A top 40 overall prospect.

The issue with Means is his shoulder issues in 2019 and this year.  And his lower strikeout numbers.

Whatever they do GET MORE DOMINICANS THROWN IN !!!!

This was a subscriber's only mailbag, not on the regular MLB Trade Rumors site.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, waynebug said:

He thinks the return would be about what the Mariners got for Paxton or the Twins got for Jose Berrios. A top 40 overall prospect.

The issue with Means is his shoulder issues in 2019 and this year.  And his lower strikeout numbers.

Whatever they do GET MORE DOMINICANS THROWN IN !!!!

 

He had a tired shoulder last year as well didn't he?

[MurphDogg]

Gotta fill the 2022 innings somehow. I don't expect a Means trade until the All-Star Break when hopefully Baumann and Grayson Rodriguez are in the rotation.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, MurphDogg said:

Gotta fill the 2022 innings somehow. I don't expect a Means trade until the All-Star Break when hopefully Baumann and Grayson Rodriguez are in the rotation.

Always have next year's version of Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

[MurphDogg]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Always have next year's version of Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

Yeah, but it is nice to have one guy that you know you can count on. I wouldn't seek a trade for Means until they reach the point that they know Baumann, Grayson, and/or DL Hall can be that type of guy.

I think Lowther, Akin, Kremer, Wells, Zimmermann, and Ellis will all be competing for spots 2-5 in the rotation in spring training along with next year's version of Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

Would be nice if Baumann, Grayson and Hall could all be ready by the All Star Break. Bradish and Drew Rom could be in the conversation by then, too. Kind of a lost year for Kevin Smith, but he could bounce back and be in the conversation as well.

[Sports Guy]

No offense but why should we care what Tim Dierkes thinks?

Also, how about a link? 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm torn on this idea.

On one hand, I like the idea of continuing to stock the system.  

On the other hand, I think Means being the 2nd or 3rd guy in the rotation is good.  At some point you gotta keep guys to build around.  

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm torn on this idea.

On one hand, I like the idea of continuing to stock the system.  

On the other hand, I think Means being the 2nd or 3rd guy in the rotation is good.  At some point you gotta keep guys to build around.  

Also, you are still selling tickets for Major League prices. You need to have a few actual Major Leaguers on your roster.

[Ruzious]

With the worst pitching staff in MLB - probably by a wide margin - I think it's foolish to consider going after a Means trade.  Obviously, nobody's untouchable, but it'd take an offer of clearly more than he's worth to make me consider it.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

With the worst pitching staff in MLB - probably by a wide margin - I think it's foolish to consider going after a Means trade.  Obviously, nobody's untouchable, but it'd take an offer of clearly more than he's worth to make me consider it.  

I saw this today on r/baseball.

I was surprised.

 

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No offense but why should we care what Tim Dierkes thinks?

Also, how about a link? 

I agree with the need for a link.  I don't see this on MLBTR.

[RZNJ]

Tough call but you have to question his durability and his value goes kaput if he gets any type of serious injury.   He's got two yeas in and his time to FA is on the clock.  I would definitely consider it.

[waynebug]

There's also the issue that if you extend him you're buying into his age 32 season.

Dierkes is the owner and creator of MLB Trade Rumors.  He gets 100s of thousands of views every day.

Today's Mailbag was for subscribers only.  I think I pay $3 a month.

"Quint" asked  would he trade Means and what could he expect to get in return.   He mentioned outfielder Robert Hassell of the Padres currently the #37 prospect in somebody's eyes. 

[Just Regular]

I hope the Means/Mullins/Santander player batch last to become part of something good here, but grant its an open question.

A comp I've heard for Orioles John Means is Tigers Matthew Boyd from circa 2018-2019.   Detroit opted to hold, a choice generally looking like an inaccuracy.   I doubt Means yet is where Boyd was then as he completed two full MLB seasons, a badge unearned so far by our guy.

[spiritof66]

The Orioles are trying to build a competitive ballclub against heavy odds -- division rivals with more revenues (other than TB) and lots of talent, virtually no infusion of ML-ready international talent for a few more years, tightwad owners (who IMO won't spend much on payroll because they're waiting to sell the team), a terrible reputation as baseball's laughingstock or close to it, and years of eroding the team's fan base. Building a starting pitching staff brings the added challenge of young pitchers gaining confidence when they're playing most of their games in parks where routine fly balls can become home runs.

It's been a slow process. The Orioles now have six to eight guys who are bona fide major leaguers. (It's certainly possible to argue about how many and about who they are, but I think most would agree that number is in the neighborhood.) To be successful, they'll need at least three times that many, and for two or three of those guys to emerge as stars. If they're like every other good team I've seen, a competitive Orioles team will be a mix of young players and veterans.

It seems to me that when a team in the Orioles' woeful position finds a guy, out of its MiL system or via trade/free agency/Rule 5, who establishes himself as a good major leaguer and isn't blocking one of the team's top talents, the plan should be to keep him. Sure, if somebody makes a trade proposal that blows you away and will give you several quality ML players, or if you're confident that your player is, say, "an old 26," you should consider it. But the bottom line -- without extraordinary opportunities or risks that the other side in a trade doesn't know or appreciate -- should be to keep Mullins so you know you've got a real good player in CF for a few years and Means so you know you've got at least one competent starting pitcher.

If the Orioles are going to trade from a limited supply of established major leaguers, they should be seeking guys who also are proven ML players or are very close to ready for the majors. Continually trading the team's best players for prospects, no matter how good they are, will just prolong the  rebuilding process. It might be fine with Elias for him to say two years from now, with the Orioles losing 90 games, "We need to be patient," and have the Orioles' remaining fans say that you can't judge Elias's rebuilding plan yet because it's still early in the process and some highly-rated prospects are almost ready for promotion to the the Orioles. I think that would be fine with present ownership as long as they're maintaining a low payroll and taking out a decent profit. That wouldn't be fine with me.