Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard that never happens.  Just ask Cedric Mullins.  

You could ask all the Orioles' 24-year-old outfielders who couldn't hit.  They've actually had a fair number who looked like busts until they kind of inexplicably started to hit.  Brady, Steve Finley, in that era where a lot of people inexplicably started to hit.  Dave May for a few years.  But the other list is longer.  Gene Kingsale, Tim Raines, Jr, Keith Hughes, Curtis Goodwin, Jim Fuller, Xavier Avery, Andres Mora.

Also Tito Francona.  Anyone know his story?  I really don't.  Came up with the Orioles in '56, didn't hit much but played almost every day in RF and finished 2nd in the ROY voting, presumably because there were no good rookies that year (Aparicio won because of his unheard-of total of 21 steals).  Didn't hit in '57, was traded to the Tigers, then the White Sox, then the Indians in space of about a year.  In '59 in Cleveland he hit .363 with 20 homers, in 2/3rds play.  Per-game he was one of the best players in the league.  Wasn't bad the next two years, and although he played to age 36 he was never close to that '59-61 peak again.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you want to give credit for value by leverage and situation then use WPA.  But actually... he was just +1.33 in WPA in 2016, with a Clutch rating of -0.25.  

WAR doesn't reflect "real" baseball if you believe that players have a persistent ability to hit better in some situations than others, and should get credit for that.  As we've discussed many times, there is a small element of clutch performance that appears to be tied to ability, but most of any player's differences in performances across varying situations is just randomness.  Giving full value to someone for their clutchiness is like rewarding someone for their ability to flip a coin and get four heads in a row.

I don’t think most players have the consistent ability to dial it up in clutch situations.   Still, if I am measuring how valuable a player was to his team, situational context matters.   We’re measuring the impact they had, not the impact they’re likely to have in the future or innate ability.   

WPA is a good stat for this purpose, and by that measure, Trumbo was 4th on the Orioles, behind Machado, Wieters and Davis.   

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 9/19/2021 at 5:34 PM, spiritof66 said:

 

If Peter leaves all his assets to his widow, there will be no estate tax due on his death. (I think the same is true of the Maryland inheritance tax.) Instead, those estate tax obligations will arise upon her death. That is, the estate and inheritance taxes won't go away; they will just get deferred until her death. And there's some prospect that those taxes will be increased as recently introduced legislation wends its way through Congress to possible enactment and go into effect.

Under the MLB Constitution, in order for a bequest of Peter Angelos that his majority interest in the Orioles be left to Georgia Angelos to become effective, Georgia would would to be approved as the new majority owner by a majority of MLB teams. I think it's unlikely that MLB owners would approve Georgia Angelos as the owner of the Orioles, in light of these facts (that is, facts as I understand them): (a) her inexperience in running a sports franchise (or any other business, so far as I know), (b) the lack of income available to her from sources other than baseball, and the financial insecurity of the Orioles franchise and its inability to withstand financial hardships from a work stoppage, pandemic, etc., (c) her husband's and sons' miserable record running the Orioles over the decades, including not only lack of success on the field but also a constant stream of poor decisions that have weakened the franchise and embarrassed MLB, (d) the fact that the Angelos family's ownership of the team will be limited since her estate will be forced to sell the team when she dies, and (e) the personal enmity of the Commissioner and some owners -- I don't know how many -- toward Peter Angelos.

I can imagine that the owners would give Georgia Angelos some time to sell the team -- maybe two or even five years, something like that -- but I would be surprised if they approved her as the owner of the Baltimore Orioles without some strict limitation on that. 

 

 

Spot on. I grew up around the corner from Angelos, good friend lives next to him in Toll Brother’s community. The son’s will sell to another local ownership group likely involving Plank and including Ripken and others. 

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think most players have the consistent ability to dial it up in clutch situations.   Still, if I am measuring how valuable a player was to his team, situational context matters.   We’re measuring the impact they had, not the impact they’re likely to have in the future or innate ability.   

WPA is a good stat for this purpose, and by that measure, Trumbo was 4th on the Orioles, behind Machado, Wieters and Davis.   

WPA is good for telling stories.  My problem is that stories become legends, legends become tied to how good someone was, and then you get stories on Bleacher Report about how great Mark Trumbo was in the clutch because of that one year he hit 50 points better with RISP, then in 2040 someone is trying to drum up a HOF case for him because of his unmatched intangibles he's screwed out of by the WAR disciples.

[sportsfan8703]

Two players that are affected by AR’s arrival,

1.  Severino has is OPS up to .675ish. RH C that has pop and hits lefties well. Also, relatively cheap. Do we want him around AR?  
 

2.  Mancini. We’re not going to run AR into the ground. He’s going to DH/1B some. So no matter who the backup C is, I think we have to trade Mancini for that reason. 
 

I don’t know how much both would bring back in trades but they’d save $10mm(ballparking) in salary. We know that factors into things. 

Means and Mullins are on a whole different level. But I do think we should 100% trade Mancini and Severino. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Two players that are affected by AR’s arrival,

1.  Severino has is OPS up to .675ish. RH C that has pop and hits lefties well. Also, relatively cheap. Do we want him around AR?  
 

2.  Mancini. We’re not going to run AR into the ground. He’s going to DH/1B some. So no matter who the backup C is, I think we have to trade Mancini for that reason. 
 

I don’t know how much both would bring back in trades but they’d save $10mm(ballparking) in salary. We know that factors into things. 

Means and Mullins are on a whole different level. But I do think we should 100% trade Mancini and Severino. 

You don't trade a player of value because you're worried that the rookie catcher needs to play 20-30 games at DH and that might slightly impact his playing time.

You trade Mancini because you think you can get good value for him.  Rutschman has almost nothing to do with it.

[Tryptamine]

14 hours ago, Pickles said:

Two top 50.  Or go away.

You might as well just says he's not available then. No one is going to give up that type of payment for a guy who has never pitched a full season, due to repeated arm fatigue, and has his peripherals. Yes, he's obviously underestimated by FIP and xFIP because they don't take into consideration quality of contact much in the way Kyle Hendricks is, but you're also talking about a guy who has posted a 4.26 ERA, 7.32 K/9 since the spider tack crack down on June 15th. There's too much uncertainty floating around him to warrant that kind of package. If  Robert Hassell and a back end of the Padre top 20 was available, I think that would be a really good haul considering those uncertainties. 

[Matt Bennett]

Man this thread has turned into something. I won't bother quoting everyone but wanted to share a few reactions I had while reading.

1. Matt Boyd 2018-2019 is not a worthy comparison of John Means because John Means is a much better pitcher. Any trade discussion should start from the fact that we would be trading a 28 year old cheap, controllably pitcher who is approaching 350 innings now at nearly LESS than 1.00 WHIP, ERA less than 3.60. And yes the Bedard haul is a reasonable comparison. To hell with the peripherals that don't like him. Watch him pitch. FIP says that John Means and Matt Harvey have been the same pitcher this year. He has excellent control/command with a knack for avoiding hard contact. Why is a .230 BABIP concerning when his career BABIP is .244? So any trade should be valuing him at the nearly top of the rotation talent he has been, and the not the back of the rotation the advanced metrics say he is. If not? Sorry.

2. Let's put to rest any discussion Austin Hays is a platoon player. He's our 2nd best position player. There's no concerning career splits and any O's fan should want him in the outfield everyday. 

3. Ryan McKenna has played his role well for a rookie and I've become more fond of him as the season went along. Short sample size but his 11 homers and 7 steals in 27 games at Norfolk were eye opening. He's in excellent shape, hustles, is a fantastic defender, has displayed a good batting eye, and it's way too early to give up on his bat. 

4. Regarding Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander's trade value, I'm not sure there is much. We are looking at a 0.9 and 0.3 B-Ref WAR players. Decent bats who have seen better days and don't provide much else. Renato Nunez provided 2.6 WAR and a 107 OPS+ in less than 2 normal seasons and was DFA'd in his first arbitration year. I want both Mancini and Santander back but let's not kid ourselves that we would be getting back a high quality package for these players. 

5. I think people tend to gloss over how beneficial it is to have real major league pitchers in the majors while our prospects are developing. I'm all for tanking and not spending everything we have for a 70 win team, but without pitchers like John Means, games turn into exhaustive bullpen games, pitchers get overworked, and your prospects get yanked around or rushed. So Yeah I don't think John Means is not leading us to contention in 2022 but he is still a valuable part of the rebuild. He is not wasted value/talent whatsoever. 

6. The "terrible in 2022, .500 team in 2023, and contender in 2024" timelines are pretty ridiculous. Nobody knows when it will all come together. But I do believe success breeds success, and things tend to work out or not work out in clusters. And outside additions will come. We do not have to and will not home grow this entire team. 

[Pickles]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

You might as well just says he's not available then. No one is going to give up that type of payment for a guy who has never pitched a full season, due to repeated arm fatigue, and has his peripherals. Yes, he's obviously underestimated by FIP and xFIP because they don't take into consideration quality of contact much in the way Kyle Hendricks is, but you're also talking about a guy who has posted a 4.26 ERA, 7.32 K/9 since the spider tack crack down on June 15th. There's too much uncertainty floating around him to warrant that kind of package. If  Robert Hassell and a back end of the Padre top 20 was available, I think that would be a really good haul considering those uncertainties. 

That's fine.

If someone wants to trade for him based on the idea that's he's overvalued because of his whip, or spider tack, they can get bent.