A final look at Mountcastle and the other AL ROY candidates

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we too hard on Mountcastle here?  
 

He’ll be 25 on OD. He hit 33 HR as a 24 year old. Had a good 2020 Covid shortened year. Won AAA MVP in 2019. He’s only been playing 1B strictly for a short time period. There’s room for growth defensively and offensively. Especially with the homers, he’s shown pitchers he can hit the ball out of the ballpark. 
 

We can’t just dismiss every player because they’re not OBP machines right away. I see the OBP increasing as pitchers know he can hurt them with the long ball. We talk about Hays breaking out, we’ll Mountcastle is could get a lot better quickly too. 
 

He shouldn’t be penalized because he couldn’t play SS, 3B, or LF. He’s the organizations #1 option at 1B for a long time. 

Why not?   He'd have significant value if he were an average defender at 3B.   Not so much as a 1B/DH.

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we too hard on Mountcastle here?  
 

He’ll be 25 on OD. He hit 33 HR as a 24 year old. Had a good 2020 Covid shortened year. Won AAA MVP in 2019. He’s only been playing 1B strictly for a short time period. There’s room for growth defensively and offensively.

As President of the Ryan Mountcastle Fan(atic) Club, I approve this message.

[sportsfan8703]

Mountcastle was real close to being the 2016 version of Trumbo, minus some homers. Trumbo had a career year in a contract year then fell apart. Mountcastle was 24. There’s no reason to think that Mountcastle can’t improve his average, OBP, and power. 
 

WAR can be misleading because we could’ve stuck Mountcastle in LF, he could take a -1.5 dWAR hit, but Offensively he would’ve balanced that out to being +2.0 WAR overall. 
 

WAR isn’t the end all be all. If we stuck Mountcastle in LF he would be better in the OF than Cruz and Trumbo were. Probably as good as Mancini. 
 

For Ex. Mancini had his best two years in 2017 and 2019 playing 90 games in the OF. 
 

WAR is a manipulated stat. 

[Can_of_corn]

Mountcastle needs to avoid those extended droughts on offense to have a successful career.  His start to the season was atrocious (47 OPS+), his July was poor (77 OPS+) and he ended the year on a down note (90 OPS+).  That isn't going to cut it at first.

 

[sportsfan8703]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle needs to avoid those extended droughts on offense to have a successful career.  His start to the season was atrocious (47 OPS+), his July was poor (77 OPS+) and he ended the year on a down note (90 OPS+).  That isn't going to cut it at first.

 

Isn’t the real easy argument to make that he’s 24 and 162 is a long season. Plus pitchers make adjustments too. Overall, he went through that and put up a good body of work. 
 

If only he had the hype of a Joc Pederson or Cody Bellinger. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn’t the real easy argument to make that he’s 24 and 162 is a long season. Plus pitchers make adjustments too. Overall, he went through that and put up a good body of work. 
 

If only he had the hype of a Joc Pederson or Cody Bellinger. 

Sure it's an easy argument.

But if he ends up prone to those types of funks he's not going to have a long career as a RH 1B/DH. 

Is he going to be able to maintain his above average footspeed going forward?  He got a lot of cheap hits with it in 2020.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure it's an easy argument.

But if he ends up prone to those types of funks he's not going to have a long career as a RH 1B/DH. 

Is he going to be able to maintain his above average footspeed going forward?  He got a lot of cheap hits with it in 2020.

Won’t the cheap hits and foot speed loss be balanced out by, one becoming a better 1B with more experience, and two better more experience at the plate. The dude isn’t don’t developing at 24. 
 

Well if Rutschman puts up those numbers in his age 24 season, we’d be doing backflips. 
 

You can’t carry your dWAR into the batter’s box. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Won’t the cheap hits and foot speed loss be balanced out by, one becoming a better 1B with more experience, and two better more experience at the plate. The dude isn’t don’t developing at 24. 
 

Well if Rutschman puts up those numbers in his age 24 season, we’d be doing backflips. 
 

You can’t carry your dWAR into the batter’s box. 

Maybe?

But he for sure has the footspeed, we've seen it.

The stuff you are talking about is a possibility.

I also won't be doing a backflip if Rutschman puts up ~4:1 K/BB ratio. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm a Mountcastle fan. I think and hope he will do well.

But he's not a for sure above average player right now, he's just not.

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are we too hard on Mountcastle here?  
 

He’ll be 25 on OD. He hit 33 HR as a 24 year old. Had a good 2020 Covid shortened year. Won AAA MVP in 2019. He’s only been playing 1B strictly for a short time period. There’s room for growth defensively and offensively. Especially with the homers, he’s shown pitchers he can hit the ball out of the ballpark. 
 

We can’t just dismiss every player because they’re not OBP machines right away. I see the OBP increasing as pitchers know he can hurt them with the long ball. We talk about Hays breaking out, we’ll Mountcastle is could get a lot better quickly too. 
 

He shouldn’t be penalized because he couldn’t play SS, 3B, or LF. He’s the organizations #1 option at 1B for a long time. 

Who exactly is being hard on Mountcastle?   I don’t see a lot of negative statements about him in this thread.   There were just better candidates for rookie of the year, that’s all.

There’s every reason to think Mountcastle can improve from here.   Most young players do, if they stay healthy.   What Mountcastle mostly needs to do is shorten the dry spells while still having the hot spells.   I fully expect that to happen.   And, he’s already improved a good bit at 1B and I expect that will continue as well as he gains experience.   

I think Mountcastle is capable of putting up some .850+ OPS seasons while playing a decent 1B.    He’ll never be an OBP machine, but even modest improvements in that regard will go a long way.   I think he has a good chance of doing that.   
 

[Just Regular]

He is already a successful 36th overall draft pick even if he becomes too many RBI's non-tender fodder sometime in Arb.

1.7 career WAR already gets to the Top 10 of the 57 guys at that draft slot.

Mountcastle 2022 my hopes are to see him take a real step towards genuinely good at 1B, and baby steps in Swing Decisions.   He is still somewhat early in his 10000 hours of building 1B defensive skill since he was trying other stuff.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

He is already a successful 36th overall draft pick even if he becomes too many RBI's non-tender fodder sometime in Arb.

1.7 career WAR already gets to the Top 10 of the 57 guys at that draft slot.

Mountcastle 2022 my hopes are to see him take a real step towards genuinely good at 1B, and baby steps in Swing Decisions.   He is still somewhat early in his 10000 hours of building 1B defensive skill since he was trying other stuff.

Absolutely.

[Sports Guy]

He’s fine..for now.