The Shortstop Market, 2022

[Just Regular]

Starting with The 30 who held the first string roles this season at the young man's position.    A little to my surprise, Xander joined Gleyber and Didi as OAA's worst shortstops of the year; Xander is an amazing player, but BOS may scuffle at the position until Mayer takes the baton.    Sort by 2021 seasonal age.

34 - Brandon Crawford

32 - Elvis Andrus, Miguel Rojas

31 - Freddy Galvis, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Iglesias, Didi Gregorious, Nick Ahmed

30 - Kyle Farmer

29 - Niko Goodrum

28 - Xander Bogaerts, Tim Anderson, Trea Turner, Javier Baez, Trevor Story

27 - Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor, Kevin Newman, Paul DeJong, Corey Seager

26 - Nicky Lopez, Carlos Correa, JP Crawford, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa

25 - Amed Rosario, Willy Adames

24 - Gleyber Torres

23 - Bo Bichette

22 - Fernando Tatis

20 - Wander Franco

Freedom from SS defensive demands was quite a boon for Marcus Semien - curious to see if he makes position return a priority.   Also a little surprised to learn Kim Ng didn't make Jazz Chisholm a priority play over Miguel Rojas.    Along with Semien and Chisholm, Andres Gimenez and Bobby Witt I feel have good chances to take one of the musical chairs from some old guy.    Gavin Lux made some forward progress - more info next year if enough to tempt Friedman with a Seager '21, Turner '22, Lux '23 sequence.    Jeter Downs awful AAA year included about 20% 2B time.    Royce Lewis on deck for the Twins if his knee heals enough to stay at the position.

After the Great Realignment of 2022 to come, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are the 2023 guys, if 2022 reveals no current Oriole prospect can project.    Swanson about 8 months younger there.

Lasering out the miracle of Brandon Crawford's 2021, shortstops 29 and up look a little bit placeholder-ish.

The Orioles 2022 question I feel in the range of "Maybe?" is.... has Andrelton (another elite glove season by OAA) fallen far enough down the hierarchy to our range?   $10.5M was his medium Minnesota number for 2021.    Otherwise, a Big Bang Theory episode title like The Galvis Inevitability I think says it right.

[OriolesMagic83]

Looks like there is going to be a lot of regrettable SS contracts this offseason.  No doubt the top free agents are going to want to be paid like elite SS ($30 mill+/yr) until their late 30's.  They will likely be finishing up their contracts at a much less demanding position.  It will be interesting to see if these $300 mill contracts are still in vogue.  Other than the Yankees/Dodgers, its hard to see how other teams can absorb more than 1 mega contract. 

[Il BuonO]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

The Orioles 2022 question I feel in the range of "Maybe?" is.... has Andrelton (another elite glove season by OAA) fallen far enough down the hierarchy to our range?   $10.5M was his medium Minnesota number for 2021.    Otherwise, a Big Bang Theory episode title like The Galvis Inevitability I think says it right.

Please, no.

Semien is capable enough there if not a plus defender. They’d better sort it out. Too many good choices are available to settle for Galvis 2.0.

[Sports Guy]

I bet the Astros let Correa walk and end up with a far lesser expensive Semien or Baez.
 

For the Os, I saw where the Phils want to go big at SS and they also need an OFer.

Santander for Didi and Bryson Stott is a deal I would look at.  We eat the Gregorious salary except the 1M they are deferring from his 2022 contract.

We get Stott, their #2 prospect and #1 pick in 2019 and a player that is hitting well at higher levels and is supposed to be able to play a good SS as compensation for the difference in salary.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I bet the Astros let Correa walk and end up with a far lesser expensive Semien or Baez.
 

For the Os, I saw where the Phils want to go big at SS and they also need an OFer.

Santander for Didi and Bryson Stott is a deal I would look at.  We eat the Gregorious salary except the 1M they are deferring from his 2022 contract.

We get Stott, their #2 prospect and #1 pick in 2019 and a player that is hitting well at higher levels and is supposed to be able to play a good SS as compensation for the difference in salary.

Why would the Phillies give up one of their top prospects for Santander and one year of salary relief?

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Why would the Phillies give up one of their top prospects for Santander and one year of salary relief?

They may not..but I would try.  Saves them 10M and opens up a roster spot to get a SS.

Like I said, I read that they plan on being the market for one of the big name FA SS.  Didi isn’t coming off a good year so to get someone to eat his salary, they will have to do sweeten the pot.

Perhaps they just dump him and keep the prospect.  Definitely possible but they do want to add an OFer and Santander can be solid if he can stay healthy (big if of course) and he has a few years of team control.

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They may not..but I would try.  Saves them 10M and opens up a roster spot to get a SS.

Like I said, I read that they plan on being the market for one of the big name FA SS.  

They have all that money saved up from when they were tanking.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I bet the Astros let Correa walk and end up with a far lesser expensive Semien or Baez.
 

For the Os, I saw where the Phils want to go big at SS and they also need an OFer.

Santander for Didi and Bryson Stott is a deal I would look at.  We eat the Gregorious salary except the 1M they are deferring from his 2022 contract.

We get Stott, their #2 prospect and #1 pick in 2019 and a player that is hitting well at higher levels and is supposed to be able to play a good SS as compensation for the difference in salary.

Phillies have a really poorly constructed team.  They are already at $135 mill for next year before even signing their arbitration guys according to Cot's.  Yes, of course that would be a great deal for the O's if they didn't have penny pinching owners.  I'm guessing that this year's FA pickups will players other teams don't want.  The O's will take what's left in late February. 

[Just Regular]

I would guess only low level guys maybe grabbing a contract before the CBA expiration 12/1, and then we wait who knows how long.

Any top free agent wants the Yankees bidding, but they were tax sensitive with stuff like Ottavino Red Sox dump.

So whether the threshold survives, or pushes up towards $250M or $300M is probably of some interest to the stars' agents, especially if the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Angels can get brought back in to offering salaries Correa, etc. would like without hitting penalties.

 

[Ruzious]

The SS I'd really like to get is CJ Abrams, and I think there's a chance he could be had - because of Tatis' insistence on staying at SS - though that could change if he doesn't improve a lot.    

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Ruzious said:

The SS I'd really like to get is CJ Abrams, and I think there's a chance he could be had - because of Tatis' insistence on staying at SS - though that could change if he doesn't improve a lot.    

They will move Abrams to CF I think.

The Pads will need some cheap players to offset the rising cost of their stars.

I think the only way Abrams can be had is if we take back Hosmer.

[Camden_yardbird]

13 hours ago, waroriole said:

Why would the Phillies give up one of their top prospects for Santander and one year of salary relief?

Dombrowski...

I agree not likely but if any GM is going to do that its Dombrowski.

[7Mo]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They will Abrams to CF I think.

The Pads will need some cheap players to offset the rising cost of their stars.

I think the only way Abrams can be had is if we take back Hosmer.

I would want to do that. Abrams is a difference maker.

[InsideCoroner]

22 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Please, no.

Semien is capable enough there if not a plus defender. They’d better sort it out. Too many good choices are available to settle for Galvis 2.0.

This is not meant to call you out in particular, but can we please stop mentioning Semien as even a remote candidate? A 7.1 fWAR season means the world is his oyster this offseason… and we can be sure that Baltimore is not any part of that world, nor should it be for any guys coming off career years. In 2026, maybe we can talk to him. Until then, we should be looking at guys who played well below expectations until we see any willingness on the part of the Angelos family to loosen those purse strings.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They will move Abrams to CF I think.

The Pads will need some cheap players to offset the rising cost of their stars.

I think the only way Abrams can be had is if we take back Hosmer.

Interesting to see that Hosmer’s contract was front-loaded.   They’ve paid him 4/$84 mm so far, and have 4/$60 mm left ($21 mm in 2022, $13 mm each of 2023-25).   That still would be a lot to pay to get Abrams, but could be worth it.   Fangraphs ranks Abrams FV 60, worth about $55 mm in excess value.