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2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)


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1 minute ago, Mizerooskie said:

That would seem to indicate that Holliday really did end up atop their board for non-financial reasons.

I think it’s obvious that Holliday was 1 on their board and not a signability pick.

Whether or not they are right remains to be seen of course.  I would have preferred Jones but unlike last year, I don’t feel they passed on a player they rated higher just to save money and that means they believe Holliday is the better prospect and Im good with that.  I’m good with that process, which I feel is of the utmost importance.

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9 hours ago, SteveA said:

Tuesday we will load up on pitchers.

That is Elias' MO. We'll see how this all works out but I'm starting to think he thinks he can take the Spencer Watkins of the world and make them decent starters so why waste picks on high injury risk young pitchers?

We'll see if that's right long term. I'd really like some good arms to dream upon in the system that he drafted or signed.

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Sunday night's second round had draft picks read by drunk former major leaguers.  Wouldn't it be amazing if the third round picks were presented by wildly hungover former major leaguers?  Would be great to see Demper walk up there with a bloody mary in his hand.

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29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That is Elias' MO. We'll see how this all works out but I'm starting to think he thinks he can take the Spencer Watkins of the world and make them decent starters so why waste picks on high injury risk young pitchers?

We'll see if that's right long term. I'd really like some good arms to dream upon in the system that he drafted or signed.

They also might think that they can cut deals with teams like the Guardians and Angels that have drafted too many pitchers.  Of course, the issue with that is the Guardians seem to be really good at drafting and developing pitching.  The Angels, not so much but it isn't clear that their issues are development vs just drafting poorly.  If they draft poorly, there isn't much sense in trading with guys that you don't think you can develop yourselves.  

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32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That is Elias' MO. We'll see how this all works out but I'm starting to think he thinks he can take the Spencer Watkins of the world and make them decent starters so why waste picks on high injury risk young pitchers?

We'll see if that's right long term. I'd really like some good arms to dream upon in the system that he drafted or signed.

The best rotation the Os have had in a while was headed up by guys like Chen and Miguel Gonzalez.  

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12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The best rotation the Os have had in a while was headed up by guys like Chen and Miguel Gonzalez.  

And we've had plenty of bad rotations made up of guys that were that year's equivalent of Chen and Gonzalez.  It's great when you hit with a guy like that but mostly you don't.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

And we've had plenty of bad rotations made up of guys that were that year's equivalent of Chen and Gonzalez.  It's great when you hit with a guy like that but mostly you don't.

No doubt.  But what you are illustrating is the exact point of what the model is telling you…pitching is really hard to predict, develop and keep healthy.  

It’s far easier to develop the bats.  
 

You can always make trades.

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More fodder for 26 or 52 weeks from now.     Remind me if I'm missing any, but the Orioles haven't really done a large scale consolidation trade attempt since Glenn Davis, right?

As surely as Swing Decisions improving in the aggregate over time, it feels like a mathematical certainty its going to happen for shaping the accumulated talent to an October roster, whether '23, '24, '25, etc.

We now know Adley-Mountcastle-Westburg-Holliday-Gunnar-Cowser-Mullins-Kjerstad-Mayo are perhaps your Best Nine bats for the peak lineups.      Westburg-Mullins-Mayo-Hays are I guess four guys for three spots beneath the Aircraft Carrier/Beast tier player.  Westburg's probably going to outdo Hays in $$$/WAR in a couple more Augusts as much as Stowers is about to outdo Mancini.

Santander-Urias-Stowers-Norby-Prieto-Rhodes-Hernaiz-Beavers-Wagner-Fabian...spare parts, unless more Gunnar type breakouts occur.

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33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No doubt.  But what you are illustrating is the exact point of what the model is telling you…pitching is really hard to predict, develop and keep healthy.  

It’s far easier to develop the bats.  
 

You can always make trades.

I'm not at all sure that I'm being told that.

The O's have brought in a ton of Chen/Gonzalez type hitters over the years and missed with them as well.

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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not at all sure that I'm being told that.

The O's have brought in a ton of Chen/Gonzalez type hitters over the years and missed with them as well.

Sure, and we can list all of the pitchers drafted in the top 5 rounds over the last 30 years and check on the success rate there as well.  It ain't pretty.   Obviously, we hope GRod and Hall are the exceptions along with very few others along the way.  

The pitching pipeline has been constructed.  The oil just hasn't reached the other end yet.

Dominican Republic and Venezuela.  Now I welcome your snark.

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  • Posts

    • It's fine, but I would personally prefer having Cowser and Adley taking tons of pitches back-to-back before Gunnar further punishes the opposing starting pitcher with high exit velo barrels. 
    • I was going to say pretty much the same thing about Cowser in my post, but left out my thoughts to keep the post more Gunnar-centric. But I totally agree that Cowser fits the best as this team's leadoff hitter, especially since Holliday doesn't look like he's going to make an impact offensively as early as most of us thought heading into the season.  Going back to last season, I've said Cowser has the best mix of patience, hit tool, power, and speed to be a great leadoff hitter. The strikeouts are most likely always going to be high with him, but he has .380-.400+ OBP makeup, and having someone like that hitting leadoff with Adley and Gunnar hitting directly behind Cowser is going to set things up for an elite offense which is much more dynamic and less one-dimensional than the what we've seen up until this point. Cowser Adley Gunnar Westburg O'Hearn Santander Mountcastle Is an ideal top 7 against RHP for right now, with Kjerstad (replacing Hays) and Mayo (essentially replacing Mateo and bumping Westburg to 2B) making the lineup legitimately scary within the next couple months. Mullins and Hays need to be phased out, with Santander and Mountcastle not far behind if those two continue struggling and not reaching base enough to justify hitting in the middle of the order.
    • A lot of teams (likely driven by analytics) are putting their best overall hitter at 2 (like the Yankees batting Soto 2, and the Dodgers batting Shohei 2) to maximize ABs while guaranteeing that a high-OBP guy is batting in front of him to give him opportunities with men on base.  That's probably what we want.  It seems logical considering how thoroughly debunked small-ball in the first inning has been.  Rutschman at 3 is fine.
    • Realistically I think Adley as the leadoff guy is the best lineup for us but if he has trouble batting leadoff in half the games because he can't get his catcher's gear off fast enough then I get it.   Cowser has continued to be incredibly patient, and if Adley can't be our leadoff guy then Cowser is probably our next best option.  Of course Cowser also hits a lot of bombs, so it'd be interesting if he goes on another heater.   If Cowser gets off the schneid then Cowser leadoff and Gunnar at 2 could be incredibly potent.  I don't think Cowser is actually playing that badly, he's just been running into some bad luck.  And he's starting to wake up a little bit anyway.
    • Agreed, appreciate the stats. Gunnar isn't a leadoff hitter - he's a prototypical #3 hitter or cleanup hitter. Hyde writes poor lineups, and Gunnar hitting leadoff has been one of the consistent problems with the offense this season. Gunnar hitting mostly solo shots is both a consequence and reflection of this offense's flaws - the O's have too many low-OBP hitters in the lineup (hitting in less-than-optimal spots for the most part) and are too reliant on solo homers to generate runs. At least Hyde has started hitting Westburg leadoff against LHP, which is progress, but Hyde is way too stubborn and too slow to make the correct adjustments. He's very similar to Buck Showalter in that respect.  Anyway, I look forward to Hyde waking up and moving Gunnar down to #3/#4 against RHP.  
    • While the return on the Tettleton trade wasn't ideal, 1: I don't think you can really expect a 30 year old catcher to put up a career year and then follow it up with another one, and 2: we had Chris Hoiles who played quite well for us following Tettleton's departure.  If we had forward thinking GMs we probably would split them at C and give them DH/1B/OF games on their non catching days, which is what Detroit did with Tettleton to prolong his career after 1992.  (He was basically the same hitter from 1993-1995 but he stopped catching with regularity so his WAR was much lower.)   The Davis trade was so completely undefensible on every level, not the least of which because we already had a player who was at least as good as Davis was on the team, but he didn't fit the stereotypical batting profile of a 1B.  At least today teams wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a 10 HR first baseman if he's got an OBP of .400.
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