2021 Orioles #9 Prospect - Heston Kjerstad - OF

[NCRaven]

Really excited to see Kjerstad and DL Hall get back on the field next season.

[RZNJ]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was drafted that high but no one other than Elias seemingly rated him so highly.

No publications rated him that highly.   No one knows how other scouting directors/teams had him rated.   

[BohKnowsBmore]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I wasn't trying to say the guy was a scrub, just that he isn't the type of guy that is dripping in tools that you expect to see at the very top of a draft.  A left handed power bat at corner outfield has value.

 

Pretty much every outlet still had him in the top-10, which is pretty darn high. Also, he may be in one of the weirdest years as far as "consensus" is concerned.

The guy has light tower power, which is exciting, assuming he hasn't regressed significantly physically.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

Pretty much every outlet still had him in the top-10, which is pretty darn high. Also, he may be in one of the weirdest years as far as "consensus" is concerned.

The guy has light tower power, which is exciting, assuming he hasn't regressed significantly physically.

Normally you see significant separation in the assessments between 1:2 and 1-10.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Normally you see significant separation in the assessments between 1:2 and 1-10.

Ehhh, I don’t know that this is true and it certainly wasn’t true that year.  
 

Still wish they had taken Veen but I think they took the next best player, especially since a pitcher was never being taken there.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehhh, I don’t know that this is true and it certainly wasn’t true that year.  
 

Still wish they had taken Veen but I think they took the next best player, especially since a pitcher was never being taken there.

Huh?

The second overall pick, historically, has outperformed the tenth pick.  Do you think that is by happenstance?

Now admittedly in any given year the player selected tenth could outperform the player selected second but the smart money bets on the higher pick.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

The second overall pick, historically, has outperformed the tenth pick.  Do you think that is by happenstance?

Now admittedly in any given year the player selected tenth could outperform the player selected second but the smart money bets on the higher pick.

You said a significant difference in assessments.  I think that is true in some years but not all years.  In some years, there are obvious 1-2-3 type guys..everyone agrees on them. 
 

But in a lot of years, there are a lot of differences of opinion and with the difficulty of projecting HS kids, it becomes harder.

If you looked at that draft, most felt Martin was the second best player..but a guy like Veen or Kjerstad was in the 7-10 area on most boards.

But the assessments aren’t tremendously different.  It’s just preferences, position, level of competition and age.  
 

But assessment wise, it’s usually that the #2 guy is more of a sure thing.  The guys in the bottom half of the top 10 probably have a few more warts than the #2 guy but the talent levels are very similar.  

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You said a significant difference in assessments.  I think that is true in some years but not all years.  In some years, there are obvious 1-2-3 type guys..everyone agrees on them. 
 

But in a lot of years, there are a lot of differences of opinion and with the difficulty of projecting HS kids, it becomes harder.

If you looked at that draft, most felt Martin was the second best player..but a guy like Veen or Kjerstad was in the 7-10 area on most boards.

But the assessments aren’t tremendously different.  It’s just preferences, position, level of competition and age.  
 

But assessment wise, it’s usually that the #2 guy is more of a sure thing.  The guys in the bottom half of the top 10 probably have a few more warts than the #2 guy but the talent levels are very similar.  

I think you are underestimating the curve of the bell.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

The second overall pick, historically, has outperformed the tenth pick.  Do you think that is by happenstance?

Now admittedly in any given year the player selected tenth could outperform the player selected second but the smart money bets on the higher pick.

One of the oddities of the draft is that the tenth pick has done better than the fifth, seventh, eighth and ninth picks.   Not better than the second, though.   

Here’s how the top 10 picks from 2020 performed in 2021:

1. Torkelson .935 OPS in A+/AA/AAA

2. Kjerstad - illness DNP

3.  Meyer 2.27 ERA in AA/AAA

4. Lacy 5.19 ERA in A+ (14 games)

5. Martin .796 OPS in AA

6. Hancock 2.62 ERA in A+/AA (12 games)

7. Gonzalez .950 OPS in A+

8.  Hassell .863 OPS in A/A+

9. Veen .900 OPS in A

10. Detmers 3.19 ERA in AA/AAA; 7.40 ERA in the majors (5 starts)

Lacy was shut down with a shoulder injury in July but recovered and is pitching in the AFL.   He only threw more than 5 innings once this summer and only threw 5 one other time.  Hancock missed a month mid-season and was shut down again in early September, both times with shoulder injuries.   He threw 5 innings three times, but never exceeded it.   Just pointing out examples of teams being very careful with their stud pitchers this year.

It’s interesting to see that Gonzalez spent the whole year in A+ and Veen the whole year in A, despite having good success at those levels.   

Assuming Kjerstad is healthy, I’d imagine he starts at A+ and hopefully moves to AA if the does well.    

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think you are underestimating the curve of the bell.

I think you are overestimating it.  It’s not like the second pick is getting 60-70 graded across the board and the 10th pick is getting in the 40s.

That’s a significant difference in assessment.  That’s not happening.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are overestimating it.  It’s not like the second pick is getting 60-70 graded across the board and the 10th pick is getting in the 40s.

That’s a significant difference in assessment.  That’s not happening.

That's just silly.

70 grade to 40 grade?

You are just spouting nonsense.

A 70 is Wander Franco territory, 40 is Ryann McKenna.

When talking about the end of the curve a 5 or 10 point difference is significant.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's just silly.

70 grade to 40 grade?

You are just spouting nonsense.

A 70 is Wander Franco territory, 40 is Ryann McKenna.

When talking about the end of the curve a 5 or 10 point difference is significant.

I tend to disagree with you there.  A guy with a 60 grade vs a 55 grade isn’t really that significant and the gap is so small that it can close quickly.

You are the one who used the term significant difference.  I had no idea your definition of significant was small.  
 

The assessments are all over the place depending on where you look and what the draft class is like.  
 

A guy like Martin would be favored because of his position and potential to stick at SS.  However, if they told every evaluator that’s he was a second baseman, I would bet he wouldn’t have been #2..that was based on people believing he could stay at SS.

That's positional value far more than his assessment being “significantly better” (whatever that means) compared to. Kjerstad or a Veen, for example.

[Sports Guy]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/%3famphtml

[hutchead]

Heston feels like his "old self."

 

[Can_of_corn]

Nice questions and he handled it well.