Jump to content

The Mullins market

Sports Guy

By Sports Guy
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One thing to appreciate is that Mullins’ 2022 season has a lot of value.   He’s only going to make $600 k or so (unless the rules change), and he should be worth a lot more than that.   Once that season is over, you can’t get something of value for it.    So, you have to consider whether it’s worth it to keep it.

For me, I just think that we should know what other teams would be willing to give up for Mullins now.   Nobody says we have to pull the trigger.   Sure there’s risk in trading him.  There’s also risk in not trading him.   And to evaluate that risk, you need to know what his market value is.   The only way to know is to find out from other teams.  

Ding ding ding. This is the thing. If Mullins was expensive, or about to be expensive, then I think there's a much better chance of a trade. 

But for now, he's part of a nice core that - IMO - Elias feels good about keeping together, in large part because they are mostly cheap as a group. 

We'll see, but to me it would be somewhat of a shock for Elias to trade Mullins right now. He's working to build more through the draft and development, and less through trading young assets. The young assets I expect him to trade are guys who are blocked or excess depth. Not blockbusters at this stage. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 183
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Frobby
Frobby

I would say you greatly overrate Mullins.   I do like him, and am not in any big hurry to trade him, but I’d always be willing to listen.   

Sports Guy
Sports Guy

I think he’s worth more in July or next offseason if he has another year like 2021 or at least something close to it. But we just don’t know what he will be in 2022.     It would irrespons

panick
panick

You doubt???

wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My gut says it's a great time to sell high on him.  I don't think any of us think he can replicate what he did last year.  

Wouldn't be looking to move him, but would be listening.  

 

 He might get better with a better lineup around him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, LA2 said:

A "blockbuster" trade is not necessarily lopsided.

So the O's are sending pieces other than Mullins?

Or do you think a fair trade with the O's only sending Mullins could count as a "blockbuster"? 

I mean terms are mutable but I don't think he's got enough value to hit that threshold.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
  • Author
Posted
53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is a lot of risk to trading Mullins this off season.  Hayes is injury prone.  McKenna is having trouble hitting a major league fastball.  Cowser is in A Ball and we do not know how he will do at higher levels.

If Cowser moves up fast next year than the risk of trading Mullins next off season may not be as much,  though he probably will not be the player that Mullins has become.

With Stowers on the fast track to the majors I would think Santander and Mancini are more tradable for the O's, though both are coming off down years and probably will bring more later.

When you don’t care about winning, there is no risk in the way you are talking about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I didn't attack.  I just have no interest in argue with you or SG.  Its not worth the time or effort.

You mean you have no interest in providing factual evidence to back up your wild claims.

Yea, I know you don't.

I'd rather not have to bother calling you out on your nonsense.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ding ding ding. This is the thing. If Mullins was expensive, or about to be expensive, then I think there's a much better chance of a trade. 

But for now, he's part of a nice core that - IMO - Elias feels good about keeping together, in large part because they are mostly cheap as a group. 

We'll see, but to me it would be somewhat of a shock for Elias to trade Mullins right now. He's working to build more through the draft and development, and less through trading young assets. The young assets I expect him to trade are guys who are blocked or excess depth. Not blockbusters at this stage. 

Exactly. Trades generally happen when a player is worth more to another team, like a veteran with an expiring contract on a losing team. Then both teams can be pretty confident in getting a win out of the deal. Mullins is a for for pretty much anyone including us, so you are making a pure speculative bet that he isn't as good as the market thinks. I don't trust myself to make speculative bets and definitely don't trust the Orioles to do so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
Just now, Aristotelian said:

Exactly. Trades generally happen when a player is worth more to another team, like a veteran with an expiring contract on a losing team. Then both teams can be pretty confident in getting a win out of the deal. Mullins is a for for pretty much anyone including us, so you are making a pure speculative bet that he isn't as good as the market thinks. I don't trust myself to make speculative bets and definitely don't trust the Orioles to do so.

Mullins has more value for a team expecting to compete in 2022 than he does for a team that is hoping to compete in 2024.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Jagwar
      What about Tomoyuki Sugano for 2025?

      By Jagwar · Posted

      I'm certainly not "fixated" on this. The real issue is the budget. How high will Rubenstein be willing to grow the payroll?
    • OriolesMagic83
      What's Your Top Priority

      By OriolesMagic83 · Posted

      The O's already have 2.
    • OriolesMagic83
      O's target? Roki Sasaki

      By OriolesMagic83 · Posted

      It will be retired with the first big $$ free agent or extension signed under Rubenstein.
    • Can_of_corn
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      I have no idea what you are arguing. 
    • Can_of_corn
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      Cool, nice work there.   So? Are we owed a large market? Does DC not deserve their own team? Should the fans of Baltimore just become Redskins fans and not tried to get their own team when the Colts left?  (sorry to bring up football again but come on, that fits). I laid it all out a couple months ago, MLB has more teams bringing home the hunk of metal than other sports since 2000.  The competitive balance is fine.  It's harder?  Yea?  OK it's harder.
    • Roll Tide
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      The Cowboys have an owner with deep pockets. I agree 100% … There is some cap manipulation that happens. At the end of the day they have a $255 million limit they are required to operate under. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc can decide each year how much they want to add to the luxury tax fund as opposed to not being able to fit a potential move under the cap. Here are the 2024 payrolls for the NFL and MLB   https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2024/04/03/mlb-team-payrolls-2024-highest-lowest-mets/73139425007/ Highest $305 million vs $60 million  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/_/year/2024/sort/cap_maximum_space Highest $259.5 million vs $217 million these numbers will likely get tighter once they make additions before the trade deadline.  If you can’t see the difference I’m just wasting my time. The biggest driving force in MLB beyond the ability of some to spend lavishly is the tv markets. The club controls so much of their tv revenue that it’s an unfair game. The moved that created the Orioles didn’t have much of an effect on the Senators tv market which was likely nonexistent then. Plus MLB is allowing contract manipulation like Othani’s contract. Instead of $700 divided by length 10 years, Somehow he only counts as like $46 million which is laughable. Plus they are paying $85 million in luxury tax fees in 2024.    The Orioles were a large market team when the Expos moved to DC. They could afford to spend with the Yankees, Red Sox , and Blue Jays. Could the Orioles afford to pay $85 million in luxury tax fees? Could the Yankees? I know the answer to both.  What grounds ? Who cares ? The impact was astronomical …It made it very difficult to compete in the AL East without tank a thon! It split their tv market in half. Obviously MLB papered over that long enough to get an agreement done.    They turned a large market team into 2 small/mid market teams. The Orioles and Nationals payrolls combined place them only 11th in baseball. Obviously they could afford to spend more. But it’s doubtful either will ever be top 10 for more than a season  or two as they try to hang onto a window.     
    • Chelsea_Phil
      Any updates on the renovations to OPACY?

      By Chelsea_Phil · Posted

      Thanks for the detailed explanation of all of the issues.  Sounds like a mess.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...