O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Rangers had a very good team defense.  He pitched in a pitchers park and a division full of pitchers parks.  The AL West is inferior to the East(the East scored 300ish more runs)

if you switched the 2 pitchers in 2021, it’s possible Harvey puts up similar numbers to Lyles and Lyles puts up similar numbers to Harvey.

Well, anything's possible, and it's a fair point. But the fact that Lyles didn't have thoracic outlet surgery counts for a lot is all I'm saying. It's a big reason why Harvey couldn't get any more than a mil. I just think they are coming from two very different places in free agency. But I understand the comparisons. 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But Elias is much more of a 4 seam proponent than a sinker guy.

I think part of the reason he didn't protect Pop was based in this.

Spin rate and 4 seam fastballs...that's what Elias does.

I admit it would be interesting if Lyles were to come here and go sinker heavy.

True, but is a sinker the only way to increase groundball rate? I feel like you could achieve some of that with curves and changeups. Either way, it's on the Orioles to figure out how to make his repertoire work in Camden Yards. It won't be easy. 

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

The Orioles didn't even have to guarantee Harvey a penny. It was a minor league deal, so we can assume nobody else wanted him.

It doesn't make much sense to me, but it seems Lyles was in more demand. I guess going 6 innings per start is valuable even when you're throwing 5 ERA ball.

I'd be pretty content with 180 IP of 5 ERA from him. Even if 7M is too much, the ML payroll is still barely above Max Scherzer's salary this year. And if there were better cheaper starters who wanted to come here, Mike would have signed them instead.

Are you and "Mike" on first named basis now? My confidence in "Mike" is falling pretty rapidly. This signing does not fit any of his previous moves and non-moves and does not fit what "Mike" has been saying to the media. If Lyles pitches well whenever the season happens, then I'll gladly mea culpa. Unfortunately there's an extremely high probability that Lyles will lead MLB in home runs allowed again but by an even larger margin than in 2021. He's going to get crushed. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

True, but is a sinker the only way to increase groundball rate? I feel like you could achieve some of that with curves and changeups. Either way, it's on the Orioles to figure out how to make his repertoire work in Camden Yards. It won't be easy. 

The curve certainly can.

But since most guys throw mostly fastballs that's generally going to have more impact, particularly with balls put in play.

[Ohfan67]

Just now, interloper said:

True, but is a sinker the only way to increase groundball rate? I feel like you could achieve some of that with curves and changeups. Either way, it's on the Orioles to figure out how to make his repertoire work in Camden Yards. It won't be easy. 

The current regime have shown very little ability to do this. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ohfan67 said:

The current regime have shown very little ability to do this. 

Which I find frustrating since it seems like something they would be good at.

You know, like how the Angels "fixed" Bundy by having him throw his better pitches more often.

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know, like how the Angels "fixed" Bundy by having him throw his better pitches more often.

How long did that last?

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which I find frustrating since it seems like something they would be good at.

You know, like how the Angels "fixed" Bundy by having him throw his better pitches more often.

And that lasted all of a half season. That said, it always seemed obvious to let Bundy go wild with the slider because it's a special pitch. We babied him too much, but I think it was understandable. 

I think it's fair to say Elias and co. haven't found many magic bullets for the pitchers on the roster to date. And maybe the ability for teams to "fix" guys is overstated in general. Or maybe these guys just plain don't have the talent. 

For me the jury is still very much out. The main thing is that I trust the current regime far more than previous ones when it comes to this kind of stuff. Over time we'll see if my trust is misplaced. 

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which I find frustrating since it seems like something they would be good at.

You know, like how the Angels "fixed" Bundy by having him throw his better pitches more often.

Agreed. The honeymoon should be over. Elias et al. should start having to answer for things like this in 2022. Pretty much every pitcher not named John Means has regressed or at the very least not improved. And Means improvement was the result of work Means did outside the Orioles organization. I'm definitely sick of defending and trying to justify what Elias et al. are doing or not doing. I want to see results in 2022 and not cheap talk. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

And that lasted all of a half season. That said, it always seemed obvious to let Bundy go wild with the slider because it's a special pitch. We babied him too much, but I think it was understandable. 

I think it's fair to say Elias and co. haven't found many magic bullets for the pitchers on the roster to date. And maybe the ability for teams to "fix" guys is overstated in general. Or maybe these guys just plain don't have the talent. 

For me the jury is still very much out.

Hence the quotation marks.

I'll agree that fixing guys is overstated.  Of course I think the concept of developing guys is overrated in these parts.  Mostly I think it's about raw talent and the internal drive of the player, in that order.

[Frobby]

59 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Lyles has thrown 180 innings once in his career. It's a wasteful, pretty dumb signing. There is no way to spin this as anything expect a very costly, very minor upgrade. The guy led the majors in home runs allowed, for goodness sake. He led the league in runs allowed two years in a row. 

It reminds me of the Woody Allen joke about the storekeeper who sets his prices so low that he loses money on every sale, but makes it up on volume.   

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It reminds me of the Woody Allen joke about the storekeeper who sets his prices so low that he loses money on every sale, but makes it up on volume.   

I wonder how much value a guy would have if he could put up say 210 innings with a 6.00 or so ERA?  Just make a living eating innings to protect the pen.

[interloper]

What if the O's go out and sign another pitcher like Zach Davies (5.78 last year with the Cubs but career 4.14)? Does that change the complexion of this signing at all for anyone?

Means
Davies
Lyles
Zimmerman
Akin/Lowther/Bradish

G-Rod later somewhere.

That would be an unspectacular but relatively sturdier rotation. Davies has some upside, not sure what went on with him last year. Reminds me more of a Dan Duquette rotation that would have more ability to keep you in the game longer. 

[LookinUp]

This thread is depressing, and it's not the posters that are depressing me.

I'd rather the O's have a $19 million payroll than spend $7 million on a guy who just led the majors in HRs allowed. I can at least defend that strategy. This one, I just have to hope because "yeah, he sucks, but at least he can eat innings and protect our other pitchers" is a really thin defense of a guy.

[luismatos4prez]

24 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Are you and "Mike" on first named basis now? My confidence in "Mike" is falling pretty rapidly. This signing does not fit any of his previous moves and non-moves and does not fit what "Mike" has been saying to the media. If Lyles pitches well whenever the season happens, then I'll gladly mea culpa. Unfortunately there's an extremely high probability that Lyles will lead MLB in home runs allowed again but by an even larger margin than in 2021. He's going to get crushed. 

I'm not any more confident in Mr. Elias than you are. He hasn't demonstrated any ability to build a winning or even mediocre team.

What moves would you recommend Mr. Elias make so we don't start the year with Keegan Akin as the #2 starter?