Runs per homers allowed

[Frobby]

Got to thinking about this topic when I saw that Jordan Lyles had allowed 28 solo shots and 10 2-run homers among his 38 homers allowed last year.    That's 1.26 runs per homer allowed.  I got to wondering what is average, and how the various Orioles did on this measure.

In the AL last year, 60% of homers allowed were solos, 27% 2-run homers, 11% 3-run shots, 2% grand slams.    That is 1.56 runs for each homer hit.   For the O's, 55% of the homers they allowed were solos, 26% 2-run homers, 15% 3-run shots, 4% grand slams.   That's 1.69 runs per homer.   So not only did we yield the most homers in the league, but we allowed them at inopportune times, including twice as often with the bases loaded as the average team.

Here's the Orioles pitchers' runs per homer allowed, from best to worst (minimum 5 homers allowed):

Eshelman 1.33 (6 homers allowed, 2.0 HR/9)

Zimmermann 1.36 (14, 2.0)

A. Wells 1.43 (7, 2.1)

Means 1.50 (30, 1.8)

Lopez 1.57 (21, 1.6)

Watkins, 1.57 (14, 2.3)

Sulser 1.60 (5, 0.7)

Kremer 1.65 (17, 2.9)

Harvey 1.68 (19, 1.3)

Akin 1.71 (17, 1.6)

Plutko 1.76 (17, 2.7)

Lowther 1.83 (6, 1.8)

Sceroler 1.83 (6, 7.0)

Tate 1.86 (7, 0.9)

Valdez 1.88 (8, 1.6)

T. Wells 1.89 (9, 1.4)

Scott 2.33 (6, 1.0)

Diplan 2.33 (6, 1.8)

Armstrong 2.40 (5, 2.3)

You kind of have to hand it to Tanner Scott -- he didn't allow many homers (1.0 per 9), but when he did, he made them count (2.33 runs per homer).   Of his six homers allowed, only one was a solo, and he gave up two 2-run homers and three 3-run shots.  Armstrong allowed no solo shots at all -- four two run shots and a grand slam in his 20 innings of work before he was sent to the minors.

 

 

 

 

[Pickles]

I'm sure there's a direct correlation between this and a pitcher's WHIP.

[Frobby]

By the way, in case you're wondering about the offensive side of the equation, the O's scored 284 runs on their 195 homers, 1.46 per homer, below league average of 1.56.   They hit 68% solos, 26% 2-run dingers, and only 5% three-run jobs and 2% grand slams.

[interloper]

Yeah I don't think Lyles' HR allowed will be that big of a deal if he's allowing them within the context of a 6+ inning start, which he's more than capable of as folks have pointed out. It's maybe his biggest strength if you're looking for one. And one of the biggest weaknesses of our current rotation. 

I'm much more worried about a SP who allows home runs and can't make it out of the 4th - think David Hess. Or a reliever who coughs them up in big spots with men on base. 

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm sure there's a direct correlation between this and a pitcher's WHIP.

Probably a loose one at least.   It's also worth mentioning that relievers often come into games with runners already on base, so they are probably a little more prone to giving up multi-run homers, as a percentage of their home runs allowed.

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Probably a loose one at least.   It's also worth mentioning that relievers often come into games with runners already on base, so they are probably a little more prone to giving up multi-run homers, as a percentage of their home runs allowed.

Not perfect but direct.

Good point regarding relievers.  

[Yossarian]

So we had two out of 19 pitchers below the league average?  It's almost as if guys were just sitting in the box waiting to tee off on us.  

[HowAboutThat]

I really appreciate the research, as always, and now I’m wondering if “runs per homer” He’s going to be Mike’s go-to stat, the way Buck was obsessed with “time to the plate.“

[emmett16]

Great research!  Seems about right.  Out pitchers walk a ton of people and our batters don’t walk.  Can see why this has been a major focus in the minors both on offense and pitching.  

[Morgan423]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'm sure there's a direct correlation between this and a pitcher's WHIP.

Even if you're a reliever commonly inheriting runners?  Sure, a lower WHIP means you give up fewer hits and homers in the first place yourself, but if you commonly have guys on when you pitch that you weren't responsible for, it'll inflate your runs allowed per HR metric artificially.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

So we had two out of 19 pitchers below the league average?  It's almost as if guys were just sitting in the box waiting to tee off on us.  

Or we just had a higher number of plate appearances with guys on base because in addition to being bad at giving up HRs, we were bad at giving up baseruners in general.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Even if you're a reliever commonly inheriting runners?  Sure, a lower WHIP means you give up fewer hits and homers in the first place yourself, but if you commonly have guys on when you pitch that you weren't responsible for, it'll inflate your runs allowed per HR metric artificially.

I'm sure the correlation is not as direct in regards to relievers, as you and Frobby point out.  However, the general trend will still hold true.  

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm sure the correlation is not as direct in regards to relievers, as you and Frobby point out.  However, the general trend will still hold true.  

I expect the trend should hold true generally.   He who puts more runners on base is more likely to allow homers with runners on base.   Makes sense.   

My guess is there are some pitchers who pitch a little differently with the bases empty vs. runners on.   They’re just more willing to challenge a hitter when nobody’s on.   And, some pitchers may just be better out of the windup than the stretch.   So those things come into play.  
 

[Frobby]

Here’s a slightly different way to look at this.   AL pitchers allowed a homer in 3.9% of PA with the bases empty, 3.1% with one on, 5.1% with two on, 2.4% with bases loaded.  The O’s were at 4.1%, 3.6%, 6.0% and 6.7%.    

I got curious how Jim (no grand slam) Palmer did in these situations.   3.0% with bases empty, 1.8% with either one or two on, 0.0% with bases loaded.   He was clearly an example of a guy who was less careful with nobody on base.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a slightly different way to look at this.   AL pitchers allowed a homer in 3.9% of PA with the bases empty, 3.1% with one on, 5.1% with two on, 2.4% with bases loaded.  The O’s were at 4.1%, 3.6%, 6.0% and 6.7%.    

I got curious how Jim (no grand slam) Palmer did in these situations.   3.0% with bases empty, 1.8% with either one or two on, 0.0% with bases loaded.   He was clearly an example of a guy who was less careful with nobody on base.   
 

Can you check his walk rate with the bases loaded?  If is isn't too much trouble?