So many questions about Trey Mancini

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I have a lot of experience with loved ones having cancer.   Once it gets to the lymph system it is very dangerous and unpredictable.  Here is what a quick search on the  internet says:

Stage III colon cancers have spread to nearby lymph nodes, but they have not yet spread to other parts of the body. Surgery to remove the section of the colon with the cancer (partial colectomy) along with nearby lymph nodes, followed by adjuvant chemo is the standard treatment for this stage.
A stage III colon cancer has about a 40 percent chance of cure.

What Frobby has done twice is ignore Trey's cancer.  I don't think any GM can do that.

I did not ignore his cancer.   I pray for Trey’s sake that it doesn’t recur, but recognize there is some possibility that it will.   

I think the quote above is highly misleading.   Trey has already been treated successfully and declared cancer-free.   That’s not to say it can’t come back, but I think if you looked at the group who aren’t cured, most of them never responded well to treatment in the first place.   Trey’s odds are much better than 40%.   They aren’t close to 100%, so I’m just going to leave it there.   If I seemed flippant about Trey’s medical risks, I apologize.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one's dying here.  

Sure, a GM would like to pay less for a given commodity.  I'd like to go on a date with Kate Bock.  But that's not how baseball contracts work and I'm not that lucky.  Neither statement is realistic.

It's funny to me that Phil is making this argument when at the same time one of the resounding arguments on this board is that we'll have to pay MORE to get a good free agent to come to Baltimore, especially a pitcher.  

You'd date a Canadian? 

 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one's dying here.  

Sure, a GM would like to pay less for a given commodity.  I'd like to go on a date with Kate Bock.  But that's not how baseball contracts work and I'm not that lucky.  Neither statement is realistic.

It's funny to me that Phil is making this argument when at the same time one of the resounding arguments on this board is that we'll have to pay MORE to get a good free agent to come to Baltimore, especially a pitcher.  

We’re not talking about a random Pitching guy coming to Baltimore. we’re talking about Trey going to someplace else. We’re talking about a cancer survivor and whether a GM would use his medical history as a bargaining chip and I think there’s no doubt that he would, because as we’ve established, he would prefer to pay less for a given asset.

[HowAboutThat]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I did not ignore his cancer.   I pray for Trey’s sake that it doesn’t recur, but recognize there is some possibility that it will.   

I think the quote above is highly misleading.   Trey has already been treated successfully and declared cancer-free.   That’s not to say it can’t come back, but I think if you looked at the group who aren’t cured, most of them never responded well to treatment in the first place.   Trey’s odds are much better than 40%.   They aren’t close to 100%, so I’m just going to leave it there.   If I seemed flippant about Trey’s medical risks, I apologize.   
 

I did not see the  quote in question, but I cannot imagine you ever being flippant about such a thing.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, Philip said:

We’re not talking about a random Pitching guy coming to Baltimore. we’re talking about Trey going to someplace else. We’re talking about a cancer survivor and whether a GM would use his medical history as a bargaining chip and I think there’s no doubt that he would, because as we’ve established, he would prefer to pay less for a given asset.

Walk me through how you'd expect a GM to position a lowball offer to Trey's agent based on his cancer history.  I'm curious to see how you think that'd go.  

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Philip said:

I did not see the  quote in question, but I cannot imagine you ever being flippant about such a thing.

Wildcard asked the question “can he stay well” and I answered “definitely yes.”   More accurately I should have said I think it’s highly likely he will, in my lay opinion knowing little about how Trey’s profile and exact condition lines up with the populations that have been studied.   But I was giving very short answers to the multiple questions, and that’s how I feel.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Walk me through how you'd expect a GM to position a lowball offer to Trey's agent based on his cancer history.  I'm curious to see how you think that'd go.  

Step one- Make sure yours is the only offer on the table.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Walk me through how you'd expect a GM to position a lowball offer to Trey's agent based on his cancer history.  I'm curious to see how you think that'd go.  

I think it would never be expressly mentioned.   Everyone would understand it’s a factor in the equation.  Trey has essentially said he knows that.   

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it would never be expressly mentioned.   Everyone would understand it’s a factor in the equation.  Trey has essentially said he knows that.   

[jabba72]

Why would they lowball him though, he's a 1B thats been shifted to DH for ineffective play in the field. Mancini needs a strong year for the O's to want to extend a DH. They owe him nothing beyond this years contract.  

[forphase1]

With any player with a health risk, there is a part that has to factor into just how much you are willing to pay them.   Show me two pitchers with the same talent and ability, but one is Hunter Harvey type durability and the other is Nolan Ryan type durability, the Harvey one is getting less money as the risk of him spending considerable time on the DL is significant.  Unfortunately for Trey he had a major health issue and the likelihood of it showing back up is higher than it is for John Doe with no history.  If a GM doesn't take that into consideration,  then he isn't properly doing his job.   

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Why would they lowball him though, he's a 1B thats been shifted to DH for ineffective play in the field. Mancini needs a strong year for the O's to want to extend a DH. They owe him nothing beyond this years contract.  

I don’t think Trey was shifted to DH for ineffective play in the field.  He played 1B about 60% of the time in the first half and 30% in the second half.   He had some injuries, was getting a little worn down, and they wanted Mountcastle to get experience there.   I don’t think any team signing Mancini would hesitate to use Mancini at 1B if they had an opening there. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure, Phil.  Every GM would want to pay less.  But that's not really going out on a limb, isn't it?

Of course not. No one thinks that my statement(which was supporting @wildcard‘s original comment) is unreasonable. That’s why your stance is so curious.

I am saying that a GM would use Trey’s medical history to sign him for less. He wouldn’t mention it directly, of course, but he would consider it, and Trey’s agent, and Trey himself, would surely be aware of it and would deal accordingly. What could be simpler?
And you’re saying that a GM, your example was Boston, would deliberately pay offer him a million MORE, and you take umbrage at my contention, which is based on the simple fact that anyone prefer to pay less for something.

The dispute is silly. I can close by saying that we can see what he gets in free agency, and we can leave it there, and move on to other things.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

Of course not. No one thinks that my statement(which was supporting @wildcard‘s original comment) is unreasonable. That’s why your stance is so curious.

I am saying that a GM would use Trey’s medical history to sign him for less. He wouldn’t mention it directly, of course, but he would consider it, and Trey’s agent, and Trey himself, would surely be aware of it and would deal accordingly. What could be simpler?
And you’re saying that a GM, your example was Boston, would deliberately pay offer him a million MORE, and you take umbrage at my contention, which is based on the simple fact that anyone prefer to pay less for something.

The dispute is silly. I can close by saying that we can see what he gets in free agency, and we can leave it there, and move on to other things.

There’s a difference between taking a player’s health into consideration when determining what you are willing to pay him in free agency, and overtly raising that topic in negotiations with the player’s agent.   The former will always happen.   There’s really no need for the latter to ever happen.   A team doesn’t need to justify why it won’t give a player a 3rd year or more than X per year.    It just makes its offer and sees whether some other team offers more, and then maybe reacts.   I don’t think teams get into reasons.   It doesn’t matter whether they think the player’s cancer might return, or they don’t like the way he hits LHP — if the offer is 2/$15 mm, that’s all the agent needs to know.  There’s either a better offer out there, or there isn’t.  

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s a difference between taking a player’s health into consideration when determining what you are willing to pay him in free agency, and overtly raising that topic in negotiations with the player’s agent.   The former will always happen.   There’s really no need for the latter to ever happen.   A team doesn’t need to justify why it won’t give a player a 3rd year or more than X per year.    It just makes its offer and sees whether some other team offers more, and then maybe reacts.   I don’t think teams get into reasons.   It doesn’t matter whether they think the player’s cancer might return, or they don’t like the way he hits LHP — if the offer is 2/$15 mm, that’s all the agent needs to know.  There’s either a better offer out there, or there isn’t.  

Of course. I didn’t suggest otherwise. I stressed that it is impossible for Treys medical history to not be a factor in negotiations, and that both sides would be fully aware of it but I also stressed that they wouldn’t mention it at all. That’s just basic common sense.