ZiPS projects the 2022 O’s to go 64-98

[Tony-OH]

I'd like see to see the Orioles win 70-75 wins this year. I think that's reasonable and would be a good point to start trying to competent by 2023.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Look at the strength throughout the rest of the division. It will be hard to avoid losing a lot of games to those teams. 

Unless there's a substantial uptick in the pitching, from within the system or outside it (I've almost given up hope for the latter, but not quite), I think 64 is about the most optimistic reasonable prediction. More like 60-65, IMO. 

It’s all (well, mostly) about the pitching.   I was really disappointed with Akin/Kremer/Lowther/Baumann/Wells last year.   We need more from that group this year and I think we’ll get it, but the question is how much more.  Hoping GRod is up by mid-season and lives up to his billing.  And, that Lyles can outdo Harvey.   

[CharmCityHokie]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s all (well, mostly) about the pitching.   I was really disappointed with Akin/Kremer/Lowther/Baumann/Wells last year.   We need more from that group this year and I think we’ll get it, but the question is how much more.  Hoping GRod is up by mid-season and lives up to his billing.  And, that Lyles can outdo Harvey.   

The Lyles deal is still just bonkers to me, I can't understand it, beyond some conspiracy by the MLB owners to sign all those FA's at overmarket cost right before the lockout to say 'Look, we pay out, we don't know what you're talking about'. 

Lyles HR rate the last two seasons has been 1.9/9ip, that isn't going to end well in the AL East. The only thing media types keep saying is "innings-eater" but he's really not. Frankly I think I'd rather just have Harvey back at a quarter (or less) of the cost. I just see no upside to Lyles at all, I'd rather have the feel good story of some AAAA+ Indy ball 29 year old who never got a shot at the Majors getting to pitch honestly. 

[jabba72]

16 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

The Lyles deal is still just bonkers to me, I can't understand it, beyond some conspiracy by the MLB owners to sign all those FA's at overmarket cost right before the lockout to say 'Look, we pay out, we don't know what you're talking about'. 

Lyles HR rate the last two seasons has been 1.9/9ip, that isn't going to end well in the AL East. The only thing media types keep saying is "innings-eater" but he's really not. Frankly I think I'd rather just have Harvey back at a quarter (or less) of the cost. I just see no upside to Lyles at all, I'd rather have the feel good story of some AAAA+ Indy ball 29 year old who never got a shot at the Majors getting to pitch honestly. 

If Harvey could pitch longer into games they probably would want him back but his high ERA and lack of staying power seemed to sour the O's. I agree though his 1.3 HR9 was surprisingly low for the otherwise awful year he had. Lyles 1.9 does look like a bad omen. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

The Lyles deal is still just bonkers to me, I can't understand it, beyond some conspiracy by the MLB owners to sign all those FA's at overmarket cost right before the lockout to say 'Look, we pay out, we don't know what you're talking about'. 

Lyles HR rate the last two seasons has been 1.9/9ip, that isn't going to end well in the AL East. The only thing media types keep saying is "innings-eater" but he's really not. Frankly I think I'd rather just have Harvey back at a quarter (or less) of the cost. I just see no upside to Lyles at all, I'd rather have the feel good story of some AAAA+ Indy ball 29 year old who never got a shot at the Majors getting to pitch honestly. 

By today’s standards, he was an innings eater last year, going 6+ innings 16 times with 13 quality starts.   If we got equivalent production out of him I’d jump for joy.   I do think it will be tougher to do that in the AL East.

I don’t understand the $7 mm price tag, but I’m not going to worry about that.   I’m just hoping he outdoes Harvey, which isn’t really saying a lot since Harvey had a 6.27 ERA and averaged 4.56 innings per start.    

[interloper]

Seems low. 

[BirdinBama]

Well, the way things look on the bargaining front, we won't be playing anywhere near 162 games.

[Aristotelian]

20 hours ago, jabba72 said:

If Harvey could pitch longer into games they probably would want him back but his high ERA and lack of staying power seemed to sour the O's. I agree though his 1.3 HR9 was surprisingly low for the otherwise awful year he had. Lyles 1.9 does look like a bad omen. 

They moved the fence back just in time!

[Can_of_corn]

Projected to be the worst team in baseball....again.

 

Of course being a projection it doesn't have any 100 win or 100 loss team, both of which are pretty likely.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Projected to be the worst team in baseball....again.

 

Of course being a projection it doesn't have any 100 win or 100 loss team, both of which are pretty likely.

I t try honk

 

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Projected to be the worst team in baseball....again.

 

Of course being a projection it doesn't have any 100 win or 100 loss team, both of which are pretty likely.

I think this is just that same projection from ZiPS.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I t try honk

 

I think this is just that same projection from ZiPS.

Yep, it says from Fangraphs. 

Wasn't it AL only when you posted about it?

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Yep, it says from Fangraphs. 

Wasn't it AL only when you posted about it?

There were two separate articles.  They actually had done the NL the day before, though I hadn’t realized it.  

I think Fangraphs eventually will do its own set of projections, separate from the pure ZiPS ones.  But the individual ZiPS player projections feed in to the FG projections.
 

[Can_of_corn]

Oh well, it's a nice graphic even if we know it isn't going to be all that predictive. 

[Frobby]

Not surprisingly, ZiPS misforecast the O’s win total by the most of any team (19 wins under).   More of a surprise: the Dodgers were a close second (18 wins under). 
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/

[tntoriole]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not surprisingly, ZiPS misforecast the O’s win total by the most of any team (19 wins under).   More of a surprise: the Dodgers were a close second (18 wins under). 
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back-at-the-2022-zips-projections/

And not surprisingly they said zero about their Os error in this article lol except they could have been more wrong 

Edited November 22, 2022 by tntoriole