The 2022 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

In keeping with my annual tradition, I've gathered up various third-party projections for the Orioles' hitters for 2022 and assembed them on a spreadsheet.   Here they are, and then I put some comments in a subsequent post.

Name 		PA	D-port	ZiPS	Steamer	ATC	THE BAT	 BAT X	Marcel
Rutschman	425	0.787	0.797	0.777	0.765	0.723	0.723	0.762
Benboom		125	0.605	0.605	0.624	0.602	0.598	0.601	0.669
Nottingham	125	0.648	0.636	0.624	0.641	0.657	0.656	0.723
Mancini		550	0.819	0.818	0.771	0.791	0.779	0.804	0.791
Urias		450	0.759	0.728	0.721	0.734	0.706	0.705	0.728
Odor		400	0.708	0.723	0.694	0.711	0.715	0.718	0.723
Mateo		400	0.704	0.667	0.651	0.664	0.633	0.656	0.667
Gutierrez	400	0.655	0.635	0.688	0.651	0.629	0.639	0.634
Jones		100	0.664	0.661	0.666	0.658	0.642	0.656	0.659
Mountcastle	600	0.837	0.797	0.778	0.806	0.801	0.786	0.793
Hays 		500	0.797	0.771	0.753	0.758	0.758	0.747	0.771
Mullins 	600	0.833	0.783	0.769	0.777	0.774	0.761	0.801
Santander 	500	0.775	0.761	0.754	0.764	0.751	0.758	0.762
Stewart 	200	0.782	0.751	0.727	0.762	0.724	0.742	0.751
McKenna		200	0.725	0.686	0.669	0.726	0.687	0.695	0.686
Stowers		100	0.739	0.734	0.746	0.739	0.739	0.739	0.739
Others		425	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649	0.649
TOTAL	       6100     0.757	0.737	0.726	0.734	0.721	0.723	0.737
	

 

[Frobby]

First of all, sorry that the spreadsheet is so dim.   Tony, is there a way to fix that?

As in the past, the allocation of PA is mine.    I will refine it once the roster gets set.   I don't think Mateo (projected at .633 - .704) and Gutierrez (.634 - .688) will get 400 PA if they hit as poorly as most of these projections seem to think.

On the other hand, I thought the projections were pretty kind to Odor (.694 - .723 range), Stewart (.724 - .782) and McKenna (.669 - .725).

Only Steamer and ZiPS gave projections for Stowers, so I used the average of the two for all the other Stowers projections.   Marcel didn't do Rutchsman, so I used the average of all the others for his projection.

[Frobby]

By the way, the O’s OPS last year was .705, so all these projections have us up significantly from that (.721 - .757).   

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

By the way, the O’s OPS last year was .705, so all these projections have us up significantly from that (.721 - .757).   

What was league average OPS last year?

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

What was league average OPS last year?

.731.   Median team OPS was .723.   Last year's .705 for the O's was 12th of 15, ahead of KC, Seattle and Texas.

[owknows]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, sorry that the spreadsheet is so dim.   Tony, is there a way to fix that?

 

If you highlight it with your cursor, it is perfect.

[wildcard]

On Mullins a lot depends on who he wants to be.  It looks like in August and September he give up average and OBP to increase his power and stolen bases.    He saw a chance of 30/30 and took it.

I don't know what he will emphasis in 2022.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

On Mullins a lot depends on who he wants to be.  It looks like in August and September he give up average and OBP to increase his power and stolen bases.    He saw a chance of 30/30 and took it.

I don't know what he will emphasis in 2022.

I’d guess it was not a conscious decision on his part.  First of all, you don’t get more stolen bases by not getting on base as much.    Second, players aren’t metronomes.   Their success rates at various aspects of the game vary over the season without any intention on their part.  Mullins had a bad BABIP in both August and September, and that’s the big reason for his lower OBP.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d guess it was not a conscious decision on his part.  First of all, you don’t get more stolen bases by not getting on base as much.    Second, players aren’t metronomes.   Their success rates at various aspects of the game vary over the season without any intention on their part.  Mullins had a bad BABIP in both August and September, and that’s the big reason for his lower OBP.

I think players can go for power at the expense of OBP.   I think that is what Mullins did in August and September.

[HowAboutThat]

On 2/5/2022 at 12:44 PM, Frobby said:

.731.   Median team OPS was .723.   Last year's .705 for the O's was 12th of 15, ahead of KC, Seattle and Texas.

And Seattle won 90 games… They must have done something right.

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Philip said:

And Seattle won 90 games… They must have done something right.

33-19 in one run games, 14-7 in extra for innings.   They were outscored by 51 runs and yet went 90-72.    Very fortunate.   

[Sports Guy]

Seattle in 2021 was very Baltimore in 2012.  But unlike the Os in 2012, the Mariners are backed by a stellar farm system and they are spending money to actually make the team better.

Its possible they see a slight drop off this year though because I would assume that the rest of the division is better.  We will see what happens after the lockout with Houston but Texas and the Angels should be better.

[Moose Milligan]

BuT wHaT aBoUt tHe LeFtFiElD FeNcE WhAt DoEs ThAt MeAn?!?!??!?!1111

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Seattle in 2021 was very Baltimore in 2012.  But unlike the Os in 2012, the Mariners are backed by a stellar farm system and they are spending money to actually make the team better.

Its possible they see a slight drop off this year though because I would assume that the rest of the division is better.  We will see what happens after the lockout with Houston but Texas and the Angels should be better.

I think their Pythag differential will regress towards the mean and that will outweigh the personnel moves they’ve made (Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier so far).   Presumably Kellenic will contribute more than a .615 OPS this time around, but the loss of Kyle Seager will hurt a bit.    Offhand I’d peg them at 80-85 wins.   ZiPS has them at 80-82.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think their Pythag differential will regress towards the mean and that will outweigh the personnel moves they’ve made (Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier so far).   Presumably Kellenic will contribute more than a .615 OPS this time around, but the loss of Kyle Seager will hurt a bit.    Offhand I’d peg them at 80-85 wins.   ZiPS has them at 80-82.   

Julio Rodriguez might be a factor.