What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Cedric Mullins?

[Pickles]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins finished with a .721 OPS, lower than any of the 46 guesses in the poll.   Even considering that the league OPS was down 30 points, guesses were way high on him.  Only 2 people had him below .780.   But it still feels like he had a pretty decent season, at 3.8 rWAR.

Yeah, the league wide decline in offense is going to make a lot of the projections- and obviously not just for Mullins- seem high.

I think it's important to note he was better defensively and on the base paths this year than last, and that despite his offense declining he still was an excellent player.

[Aristotelian]

Mullins has a career OPS of .760. Last year came in at .720, versus a career high of .878 in his 30/30 "Brady Anderson" year. He is a player who faces defensive shifts and should be helped by the new rule. I will guess .760 but wouldn't be surprised by another .720.

[Aristotelian]

Never mind, just realized this is looking back at '22. He really slipped vs lefties and I think the shift was a factor. Remains to be seen whether .720 is the new normal or if he adjusts. 

[btdart20]

Looking at Mullins' plate discipline year-over-year, 2022 looks more like 2020 than 2021. 

Z-swing% - 2020 he had a 70.2 Z-swing %.  2021 it was 64.7%.  2022 it was at 71.4%.  Z-swing is the percentage of time he swung at pitches in the strike zone.  2022 MLB average was 66.9% for reference.  

Chase% - 32.6% to 27.8% to 29.7%.

1st pitch swing% - 34% to 25.7% to 33.7%

Swing% - 50.8% to 46.3% to 51.3%

I haven't dug into how pitchers were attacking him (and I would think there was some changes), but in general, I think he needs to get back to being more selective at what pitches he swings at.  More specifically, laying off pitcher's pitches in the strike zone.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Looking at Mullins' plate discipline year-over-year, 2022 looks more like 2020 than 2021. 

Z-swing% - 2020 he had a 70.2 Z-swing %.  2021 it was 64.7%.  2022 it was at 71.4%.  Z-swing is the percentage of time he swung at pitches in the strike zone.  2022 MLB average was 66.9% for reference.  

Chase% - 32.6% to 27.8% to 29.7%.

1st pitch swing% - 34% to 25.7% to 33.7%

Swing% - 50.8% to 46.3% to 51.3%

I haven't dug into how pitchers were attacking him (and I would think there was some changes), but in general, I think he needs to get back to being more selective at what pitches he swings at.  More specifically, laying off pitcher's pitches in the strike zone.

Just watching the games, I felt he was less patient and more pull-oriented in 2022 than in 2021.  

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just watching the games, I felt he was less patient and more pull-oriented in 2022 than in 2021.  

Launch angle was up iirc.  Trying to hit homers.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just watching the games, I felt he was less patient and more pull-oriented in 2022 than in 2021.  

I noticed the league switches on him. Seems crazy for a lefty hitter with elite speed. That said, his 43.9% pull rate was virtually same as last year and consistent with his career. To put that in perspective, Chris Davis was 44.7% for his career with a high of 56%. Ichiro had a pull rate of 31.5%.