What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Ryan Mountcastle?

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Tejada rode 76 extra base hits to 150 RBI's in 2004; if things go like Elias hopes I could see Mountcastle's hottest year pushing that ballpark.   It probably invoives hitting cleanup all year behind the three best out of the Mullins, Cowser, Adley, Termarr foursome, hypothetically speaking.

Since there have only been four modern Orioles to eclipse 125 RBI I'm going to say there's a very, very slim chance Mountcastle ever approaches 150.  Murray, Boog, Frank, Ripken, Singleton, Jones, Belle, Brooks... none of them got within 26 RBI of 150.

[waroriole]

It’s a bit surprising that only 3 people have gone under .810, when he wasn’t even an .810 hitter last year. I hope he gets over his prolonged slumps, but if not we’ll mostly be wrong. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Since there have only been four modern Orioles to eclipse 125 RBI I'm going to say there's a very, very slim chance Mountcastle ever approaches 150.  Murray, Boog, Frank, Ripken, Singleton, Jones, Belle, Brooks... none of them got within 26 RBI of 150.

Tejada had a great year that year, but he also had the benefit of batting with 546 runners on base, which is a huge number.  He also batted .334/.377/.592 in those situations.   I recall that he was at the very top of the league in both having runners on base and percentage of cashing them in.   

Mountcastle last year had 344 runners on base when he batted.
 

[Just Regular]

I just like talking about RBI's with Drungo.   Last year I guessed Mountcastle might push 100, and he also correctly said very slim chance, but if Wander hadn't concussed him for 10 midsummer days he might have had a puncher's chance.

I believe Drungo and I are united in the belief they are a meaningless junk stat, but boy will some folks be mad if Elias sells him high coming off a big RBI year.   I am seriously interested in if Adley is 60th or 90th percentile controlling the zone compared to his MLB peers right away.

I am curious to see how good Elias' best offenses can get, and Mountcastle RBI goofs are just a bit of a fun proxy for that.   

 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Tejada had a great year that year, but he also had the benefit of batting with 546 runners on base, which is a huge number.  He also batted .334/.377/.592 in those situations.   I recall that he was at the very top of the league in both having runners on base and percentage of cashing them in.   

Mountcastle last year had 344 runners on base when he batted.
 

If Mouncastle drove in runs at Tejada's rate (RBI/runners on) he would have had 94.  He actually had 89. 

As more and more runs are scored via homers (and homers spread across all nine lineup spots) and league OBPs and BAs go down RBIs are spread out more.  It's been 13 years since anyone in the majors had 140 RBI in a season.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If Mouncastle drove in runs at Tejada's rate (RBI/runners on) he would have had 94.  He actually had 89. 

As more and more runs are scored via homers (and homers spread across all nine lineup spots) and league OBPs and BAs go down RBIs are spread out more.  It's been 13 years since anyone in the majors had 140 RBI in a season.

It makes you wonder why teams have emphasize HRs over OBP.  Give me a bunch of of high OBP 20 HR guys over 30 HR guys w/ low OBPs.  The O's of 2012=2016 already tried the later approach. 

[Can_of_corn]

42 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It makes you wonder why teams have emphasize HRs over OBP.  Give me a bunch of of high OBP 20 HR guys over 30 HR guys w/ low OBPs.  The O's of 2012=2016 already tried the later approach. 

You mean the only Os teams this millennia to make the playoffs?

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You mean the only Os teams this millennia to make the playoffs?

A bunch of solo HR helps a lot more in the regular season vs the playoffs.  Those Oriole teams really struggled to score w/o HR.  The current Yankee teams are similarly constructed and haven't had recent playoff success despite hitting HR at record paces. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/12/2022 at 12:26 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

It makes you wonder why teams have emphasize HRs over OBP.  Give me a bunch of of high OBP 20 HR guys over 30 HR guys w/ low OBPs.  The O's of 2012=2016 already tried the later approach. 

With ever-lower batting averages and essentially flat walk rates sequential offenses become harder and harder to sustain.  Last year the majors had a .317 OBP, only a few years have been lower since the 1960s.

Also, low-power, high OBP hitters are on the endangered species list.  Since 2015 there have only been 13 players with a .350+ OBP and and ISO under .100.  Zero players have had a .375 OBP with an ISO under .100, certainly none over .400.  Basically, to have a really high OBP in today's game you have to have at least a moderate amount of power.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/12/2022 at 2:14 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

A bunch of solo HR helps a lot more in the regular season vs the playoffs. 

I'd like to see some data backing up that assertion.

[Frobby]

On 2/12/2022 at 12:26 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

It makes you wonder why teams have emphasize HRs over OBP.  Give me a bunch of of high OBP 20 HR guys over 30 HR guys w/ low OBPs.  The O's of 2012=2016 already tried the later approach. 

It’s all about wOBA, pal.   Give me the wOBAist team we can build.   wOBA favors OBP over SLG but does not ignore the latter.

The O’s were 26th in runs scored, 24th in wOBA, 17th in homers, 20th in SLG, 26th in OBP.
 

[OriolesMagic83]

37 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd like to see some data backing up that assertion.

I have to admit, hitting HR vs. not hitting HR is better.  I just feel the over reliance on HR makes me bored and takes away from the game, IMO.

https://calltothepen.com/2020/10/08/mlb-home-run-die-approach-corroded-beauty-offense/

I would like to see more teams do what the O's are doing with moving back fences.  How have stadiums continually got smaller as athletes are getting bigger and stronger.  This is like lowering the rims to 9 feet in the NBA.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s all about wOBA, pal.   Give me the wOBAist team we can build.   wOBA favors OBP over SLG but does not ignore the latter.

The O’s were 26th in runs scored, 24th in wOBA, 17th in homers, 20th in SLG, 26th in OBP.
 

I would rather have a team of Markakis type hitters than Weiters/Trumbo type hitters.  I think that might be what Elias is aiming for too.  The favorite comp for Cowser is Markakis.  The only uber power prospect the O's have IMO is Kjerstad.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would rather have a team of Markakis type hitters than Weiters/Trumbo type hitters.  I think that might be what Elias is aiming for too.  The favorite comp for Cowser is Markakis.  The only uber power prospect the O's have IMO is Kjerstad.

Markakis - .340 career wOBA

Wieters - .313

Trumbo - .326

So yeah, sure.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Markakis - .340 career wOBA

Wieters - .313

Trumbo - .326

So yeah, sure.  

You don't draft Kjerstad and Mayo if you aren't putting some emphasis on raw power.

But yea, good hitters are good.