Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser traded to Marlins

[Sports Guy]

As fans we always glance over the human side of these things:

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I will miss Sulser more than Scott.   Sulser was nothing special, but he was reasonably consistent and reliable last year.   Scott has been so inconsistent in his career.  He’d come into a game and usually within 3-4 pitches you’d know whether this was one of those days when he would dominate, or one where he’d just be all over the place.  People kept hoping he’d be the next Andrew Miller if he could harness his stuff, but he never did in his 4 seasons here.  Maybe the light bulb will come on in Miami, but I’m not going to lose any sleep over losing him.   

As to the return, to me it’s nothing amazing but it is fair value.   We’re giving up bullpen innings today for possible contributions in a few years.   We’ll probably know this year if Velez is a potential contributor or not; the Dominican OF is 3-4 years away at least and it will be several years before the Comp B pick has any chance to contribute.   

Note to wildcard: if you don’t like the trade now, I really doubt the PTBNL is going to change your mind.   

 

Nick Neidert is a decent piece IMO if that tends up to be accurate.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As fans we always glance over the human side of these things:

 

So true.  A friend of mine is golfing buddies with Fred Lynn (now, not back in the day). I remember I was really angry when Lynn exercised a no-trade clause when the O’s tried to trade him, until he explained that his wife and kids didn’t want to leave their friends.   

[Just Regular]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Good find.   I haven't seen a reillocity FaBIO table in a few years, but remember he used to put them on Fangraphs often.

This is more of a Drew Rom hype post, as Rom in this table with him as a 90th percentile minor league starter performance last year.   Believe every number in the table is a percentile.

Drew Rom 12.15.1999 and Antonio Velez 3.31.1997  (~2.7 year age delta)

CTL - Rom 84, Velez 97     Velez a Stallings-level strike thrower

K - Rom 67, Velez 39      Velez must have hit spots great to get lots of outs with relatively few K's

GB - Rom 97, Velez 43      I hadn't realized Rom's fine 2021 had near Britton top-of-scale groundball numbers

IFFB - Rom 9, Velez 86     Rom works down, Velez works up.    Few pop-ups when all on the ground

Both guys ended the year in AA rotations, Rom schooling on September 24th the Cleveland AA team that otherwise thrashed the Baysox (including Grayson) in the postseason.   Hope we get to see them both pitch Baysox games this weekend, and that Rom can level up in 5-6 games same as Rodriguez.

Astros-comparisons wise, for all I've pegged Means "our Keuchel" functionally as one good SP there "early", he is a high-ball pitcher like Velez.   Rom's style is probably more Keuchel-ish, and hoping he stays a cut or three ahead of our Zimmermann-Wells-Lowther level lefty without overwhelming stuff.

You're always an underdog to go 5-for-5 on the pitchers you hope pitch the most innings any given year, but with a good 2022 I think Rom becomes that (before imports) 5th 2023 guy for me with Means, Rodriguez, Hall and Bradish.

 

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

As fans we always glance over the human side of these things:

 

Yeah... that's tough. It's going to be even tougher for a lot of guys when it's Trey. 

Fry is now the veteran of this bullpen, basically. I hope he does well this year - he's looked pretty solid in spring with 6 Ks and 2 BBs in 3.1 IP but that doesn't tell us much. 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Buster Olney getting all upset over the Os payroll after this trade is hilarious.

@SteveA had it first that this transaction will net increase Orioles 2022 cash outlay for baseball players.

[interloper]

Incoming Elias quotes.

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah... that's tough. It's going to be even tougher for a lot of guys when it's Trey. 

Fry is now the veteran of this bullpen, basically. I hope he does well this year - he's looked pretty solid in spring with 6 Ks and 2 BBs in 3.1 IP but that doesn't tell us much. 

If Fry has his control back at normal levels, he will be effective.   His problems last year stemmed from streaks of extreme wildness.   Not characteristic for him, but quite possibly due to the ban on sticky stuff.   

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If Fry has his control back at normal levels, he will be effective.   His problems last year stemmed from streaks of extreme wildness.   Not characteristic for him, but quite possibly due to the ban on sticky stuff.   

If Fry is effective, then I doubt he'll be long for this team.

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I will miss Sulser more than Scott.   Sulser was nothing special, but he was reasonably consistent and reliable last year.   Scott has been so inconsistent in his career.  He’d come into a game and usually within 3-4 pitches you’d know whether this was one of those days when he would dominate, or one where he’d just be all over the place.  People kept hoping he’d be the next Andrew Miller if he could harness his stuff, but he never did in his 4 seasons here.  Maybe the light bulb will come on in Miami, but I’m not going to lose any sleep over losing him.   

As to the return, to me it’s nothing amazing but it is fair value.   We’re giving up bullpen innings today for possible contributions in a few years.   We’ll probably know this year if Velez is a potential contributor or not; the Dominican OF is 3-4 years away at least and it will be several years before the Comp B pick has any chance to contribute.   

Note to wildcard: if you don’t like the trade now, I really doubt the PTBNL is going to change your mind.   

 

So far I don't like it.  I have no doubt that Elias has already gamed out who he thinks the first 67 picks are in the 2022 draft and weighed that against trading Scott.   He is ever confident in his ability to draft.

For me Scott for  the equal to Reed Trimble  that arrives in the majors in 2026 is not a good trade.  Scott had already turned the corner IMO.  He was part of the O's next winning team  as he had  put up a 2.24 ERA in 56 IP in 2020 and the first half of 2021 before he sprained his knee on August first.

I can see trading Sulser for Velez and Guerrero because of Sulser's age and he is not going to   be part of the future.   The PTBNL is an unknown.

I think Tyler Wells is the replacement for Sulser.   T Wells will be on an innings limit this year of probably around 100.   He can begin the season in the rotation but he probably does not stay there.  When Grayson and Bradish are promoted to the rotation in May Wells probably goes to the back end of the pen. 

Perez is a big risk in trying to replace Scott IMO.  

So far I see trading Scott as an unforced error by Elias.   But maybe he has something else up his sleeve that will make me feel better about the trade.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So far I don't like it.  I have no doubt that Elias has already gamed out who he thinks the first 67 picks are in the 2022 draft and weighed that against trading Scott.   He is ever confident in his ability to draft.

For me Scott for  the equal to Reed Trimble  that arrives in the majors in 2026 is not a good trade.  Scott had already turned the corner IMO.  He was part of the O's next winning team  as he had  put up a 2.24 ERA in 56 IP in 2020 and the first half of 2021 before he sprained his knee on August first.

I can see trading Sulser for Velez and Guerrero because of Sulser's age and he is not going to   be part of the future.   The PTBNL is an unknown.

I think Tyler Wells is the replacement for Sulser.   T Wells will be on an innings limit this year of probably around 100.   He can begin the season in the rotation but he probably does not stay there.  When Grayson and Bradish are promoted to the rotation in May Wells probably goes to the back end of the pen. 

Perez is a big risk in trying to replace Scott IMO.  

So far I see trading Scott as an unforced error by Elias.   But maybe he has something else up his sleeve that will make me feel better about the trade.

 

Bottom line, you are more confident about Scott having turned a corner than I am.  I forgot about his knee sprain, so maybe you’ll turn out to be right.   I’m still a skeptic, though.   

[NCRaven]

Nick Niedert didn't need to be DFA'd to be included in this deal.  And, they don't need to put him through waivers if they want to trade him to the O's.  The have 10 days (I believe) to trade him or waive him.  There's no reason for him to be a PTBNL unless it's to give the O's time to clear roster space.  So there could be another trade off the 40 man or a cut if Niedert is the move.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bottom line, you are more confident about Scott having turned a corner than I am.  I forgot about his knee sprain, so maybe you’ll turn out to be right.   I’m still a skeptic, though.   

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2021/08/01/scott-placed-10-day-injured-list-left-knee-soreness-akin-reactivated-covid-19-injured-list/

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So far I don't like it.  I have no doubt that Elias has already gamed out who he thinks the first 67 picks are in the 2022 draft and weighed that against trading Scott.   He is ever confident in his ability to draft.

For me Scott for  the equal to Reed Trimble  that arrives in the majors in 2026 is not a good trade.  Scott had already turned the corner IMO.  He was part of the O's next winning team  as he had  put up a 2.24 ERA in 56 IP in 2020 and the first half of 2021 before he sprained his knee on August first.

I can see trading Sulser for Velez and Guerrero because of Sulser's age and he is not going to   be part of the future.   The PTBNL is an unknown.

I think Tyler Wells is the replacement for Sulser.   T Wells will be on an innings limit this year of probably around 100.   He can begin the season in the rotation but he probably does not stay there.  When Grayson and Bradish are promoted to the rotation in May Wells probably goes to the back end of the pen. 

Perez is a big risk in trying to replace Scott IMO.  

So far I see trading Scott as an unforced error by Elias.   But maybe he has something else up his sleeve that will make me feel better about the trade.

 

Well-reasoned take even if I ultimately disagree.

For me, I don't want Scott anywhere near the next winning Orioles team. That 1.065 WHIP in 2020 is a significant outlier for his career. His 1.3 WAR that year accounts for his entire career WAR of... 1.3. Because he's otherwise a replacement level pitcher. 

If I can see any fault with this trade, it's just that it puts out the vibe of uncertainty about the timeline of the rebuild. This is a very Elias trade, but one that feels very early-rebuild more than late-rebuild. So I get the concern there. But even then, we knew guys like Scott and Sulser were shopped last year, so this doesn't come as a huge shock. And of course, there will be others to come - Trey and Santander are not long for this team, I'm afraid. But we knew that, too. 

Elias has shown a pretty deft hand with getting value out of bullpen arms: Givens, Castro, Scott, Sulser. With exception of Givens at the time, these guys aren't world-beaters. 

[Sports Guy]

This could definitely be a trade you look back on and wish we had kept Scott for a few months of this season.

OTOH, him doing well in Miami, in a lesser division and better pitchers park, doesn’t mean he would have done as well here.

But I think you have to feel that this was the right move at the time.