Ellis has contract selected/Stewart DFA'd/Diplan optioned

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

Your quote: 

"Yep they totally should have picked some toolsy high schooler that would have washed out in A ball instead of someone that provided positive value at the ML level."

There are many ways to compare draft picks but you emphasized Stewart's "positive value at the ML level."  Stewart has a career WAR of 0.5.  According to Fangraph's, 0 - 1 career WAR is considered "Scrub" level.  Sure, technically it is positive as in > 0, but it's a weak argument.  I say there's not much difference in overall value to the Orioles between Stewart and toolsy high schooler that washed out in A ball.  

Perhaps another way to look at it is to ask, would you rather have a player wash out in the minors so the organization can just move on or for the player to be just good enough to make it to the majors (at least make it to the O's, maybe not any other teams) and play at a scrub level for several years before the org finally severs ties?  Which scenario is better for the organization?

 

Make the majors .

Folks talk about eating innings from a pitcher perspective but it applies to position players as well.  Another player would have had to be acquired to cover those innings.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Hazmat said:

Your quote: 

"Yep they totally should have picked some toolsy high schooler that would have washed out in A ball instead of someone that provided positive value at the ML level."

There are many ways to compare draft picks but you emphasized Stewart's "positive value at the ML level."  Stewart has a career WAR of 0.5.  According to Fangraph's, 0 - 1 career WAR is considered "Scrub" level.  Sure, technically it is positive as in > 0, but it's a weak argument.  I say there's not much difference in overall value to the Orioles between Stewart and toolsy high schooler that washed out in A ball.  

Perhaps another way to look at it is to ask, would you rather have a player wash out in the minors so the organization can just move on or for the player to be just good enough to make it to the majors (at least make it to the O's, maybe not any other teams) and play at a scrub level for several years before the org finally severs ties?  Which scenario is better for the organization?

 

Plus, who could have been playing in his spot and maybe created more value? Sometimes keeping around those first round picks while they "scrub it up" at the major league level costs the team because it stops them from getting better players.

At the end of the day, Stewart's bat was never going to offset his poor defensive value. In the first round, I think you have to take someone with better tools all around.

Even in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds, you can see Elias taking guys with multiple tools, even if they are flawed in some way like most picks. 

The good news in this draft is Mountcastle was the comp pick at #36 in this draft so at least Rajsich made up for the bad pick by getting an upside high school power bat that worked out. Oh, and he also selected Mullins in the 13th round so if you just change Mullins and Stewart's draft positions you think it shows he knows what he was doing. lol

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Plus, who could have been playing in his spot and maybe created more value? Sometimes keeping around those first round picks while they "scrub it up" at the major league level costs the team because it stops them from getting better players.

At the end of the day, Stewart's bat was never going to offset his poor defensive value. In the first round, I think you have to take someone with better tools all around.

Even in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds, you can see Elias taking guys with multiple tools, even if they are flawed in some way like most picks. 

The good news in this draft is Mountcastle was the comp pick at #36 in this draft so at least Rajsich made up for the bad pick by getting an upside high school power bat that worked out. Oh, and he also selected Mullins in the 13th round so if you just change Mullins and Stewart's draft positions you think it shows he knows what he was doing. lol

 

Judging by the talent we've seen the last few years, nobody.

Unless you want to suggest Baby Yaz would have made it big in Baltimore if only DJ wasn't around...

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Judging by the talent we've seen the last few years, nobody.

Unless you want to suggest Baby Yaz would have made it big in Baltimore if only DJ wasn't around...

There are 29 other organizations. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

There are 29 other organizations. 

Do you think that having DJ on the 40 man roster kept the Orioles from making any moves?

I don't.  We've had plenty of dead weight and guys worse than Stewart were given a shot.

Stewart at least produced something at the ML level.  Hart did nothing.

[Sports Guy]

KeBryan Hayes went 8 picks after DJ but that was an overall relatively weak class.

[Tony-OH]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think that having DJ on the 40 man roster kept the Orioles from making any moves?

I don't.  We've had plenty of dead weight and guys worse than Stewart were given a shot.

Stewart at least produced something at the ML level.  Hart did nothing.

I don't even know what you are talking about when it comes to Hart. Where did Hart come into OUR conversation.

When it came to Hart, that was just really poor scouting. He was terrible and I never liked him after I saw some BP and game footage of him at one of those perfect game camps. He had one tool, speed.

At the end of the day, Stewart was a bad draft pick and not the kind of tool set I would have been looking for in a 1st round pick if I were drafting. We can go back and forth all day on whether having Stewart on the 40-man prevented the Orioles from getting someone else (I would argue obviously they would have had to have another outfielder), but at the end of the day, he's gone, I doubt he'll be claimed, and I would not be surprised if he ends up only filling in at AAA this year as he shouldn't be a priority play. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't even know what you are talking about when it comes to Hart. Where did Hart come into OUR conversation.

When it came to Hart, that was just really poor scouting. He was terrible and I never liked him after I saw some BP and game footage of him at one of those perfect game camps. He had one tool, speed.

At the end of the day, Stewart was a bad draft pick and not the kind of tool set I would have been looking for in a 1st round pick if I were drafting. We can go back and forth all day on whether having Stewart on the 40-man prevented the Orioles from getting someone else (I would argue obviously they would have had to have another outfielder), but at the end of the day, he's gone, I doubt he'll be claimed, and I would not be surprised if he ends up only filling in at AAA this year as he shouldn't be a priority play. 

Some folks were saying that it was better to pick a toolsy HS kid that rocked out in A ball than someone like DJ that made it to the majors.

I used Hart as an example of choice B, since he was a fairly recent first round draft pick.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

KeBryan Hayes went 8 picks after DJ but that was an overall relatively weak class.

I’m sure I could find 20 guys drafted after DJ in 2015 who produced more than he did.  But that’s a bit beside the point.  That’s true of most draft picks.  I’ll stick with my view that he was a decent pick, though disappointing.  

[Hazmat]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some folks were saying that it was better to pick a toolsy HS kid that rocked out in A ball than someone like DJ that made it to the majors.

I used Hart as an example of choice B, since he was a fairly recent first round draft pick.

 

Branded Fahey also “made it to the majors”.  That doesn’t mean it was good for the Orioles or that they could not or should not be expected to play someone w better talent and value in his place.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hazmat said:

Branded Fahey also “made it to the majors”.  That doesn’t mean it was good for the Orioles or that they could not or should not be expected to play someone w better talent and value in his place.

I'm not suggesting it was particularly good for the team.  Just that they got some value from the pick and it wasn't a bad pick in the overall context of the draft.

Folks in general expect too much out of draft picks.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not suggesting it was particularly good for the team.  Just that they got some value from the pick and it wasn't a bad pick in the overall context of the draft.

Folks in general expect too much out of draft picks.

I think that’s very true.   Your odds are better in the first round than elsewhere, but they’re still not very good, especially towards the bottom of that round.  Of course, Mike Trout was a no. 25 overall pick, like Stewart was.  

[pdiddy]

DJ has a below average arm but otherwise had potential. He suffers from how he looks more than his actual athletic ability when healthy. He was well coached in HS (both baseball and football) and college and has a great attitude. Who knows what better health luck and steady at bats might have done - still not likely a star but could have been a serviceable 4th with pop.

[InsideCoroner]

“Bust” or not, I do remember D.J. hitting three homers over back-to-back wins against the Yanks in September of 2020 (including shots off Cole and Tanaka). He had a few moments in the sun. Too few, for most, but enough to make for some good stories in the bar in the coming decades. I feel he had his chance, and didn’t capitalize on it, but I also don’t think he was the complete fiasco some make him out to be. 

[luismatos4prez]

In 2019, 16 guys got 100+ PAs for the Orioles. Only 6 of them are still major leaguers (Mancini, Santander, Severino, Alberto, Peterson, and Villar).

That same year, 14 Dodgers got 100+ PAs. 13/14 are still in the majors (Russell Martin retired).

No point here, just thought it was interesting.