Gunnar Henderson 2022

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltfan said:

I will go on record as saying I wouldn’t make such an offer to 24 year old catcher, Adley.  

I would give him 7 or 8 years but I can see why you don’t do it for a catcher.

[baltfan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I would give him 7 or 8 years but I can see why you don’t do it for a catcher.

That’s fair and probably would be necessary if you want to try a similar strategy with Henderson etc.   You at least have to make an attempt with the guy that is the heartbeat of the team.  
 

On the Braves, I would note that the Nationals were a well run team that also couldn’t get early extensions with guys.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Astros surely tried this and couldn’t lock guys up.  We know the Rays have done similar and a couple of times had success, but nothing like this.  There are lots of organizations as good as the Braves that can’t seem to get a bunch of extensions like this. 

Altuve and Bregman.

 

Indians did it decades ago.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I will go on record as saying I wouldn’t make such an offer to 24 year old catcher, Adley.  

What about a 23 year old catcher in 2021?

[Il BuonO]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would give him 7 or 8 years but I can see why you don’t do it for a catcher.

Why not? He’s more valuable, not less. There’s no certainty that because he’s a catcher he’s less worthy of a long term deal. In fact, 7-8 years sounds just about right.

[Hallas]

4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Why not? He’s more valuable, not less. There’s no certainty that because he’s a catcher he’s less worthy of a long term deal. In fact, 7-8 years sounds just about right.

I think you could be forgiven if you were worried about career span and wear and tear on a catcher.  But extending him till 32 or so seems pretty reasonable.  Catchers usually stay good through that point.

Javy Lopez was good through 33, was passable at 34, and pretty much done at 35.

[Can_of_corn]

37 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

 

I just saw 8/72.  That's not a huge amount of risk for a team.

[Just Regular]

The next Orioles one will be the first.

I do wonder if Jon Singleton breaking bad soured the people who were in Houston at that time any on the play.

It is probably academic with the Gunnar-Boras team but Harris 2022 is I feel one of the very best Gunnar comps.   They are the two guys who started the year Top 50-ish, and have just gone nuts all season long.

I'll guess the Club options will value FA seasons in the 20-25 AAV ballpark.   Harris 3.7.2001 is a few months older (Gunnar 6.29.2001) and only got 500k draft bonus to Gunnar's ~5X, always helpful for the Club if the Player doesn't have that first couple few million yet.

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by Just Regular

[ShoelesJoe]

44 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I will go on record as saying I wouldn’t make such an offer to 24 year old catcher, Adley.  

And if you did, Rutschman might very well turn down the offer. I would, in his position. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

41 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

And if you did, Rutschman might very well turn down the offer. I would, in his position. 

I don’t think Adley would sign for 8/72, unless there’s an opt out after the first year he qualifies for free agency.

Judge is getting $37.6M for his arbitration years. By the time Adley gets to his arbitration years he could be getting over $40M cumulative. 

It would take over $100M to get Adley to sign for 8 years. 

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don’t think Adley would sign for 8/72, unless there’s an opt out after the first year he qualifies for free agency.

Judge is getting $37.6M for his arbitration years. By the time Adley gets to his arbitration years he could be getting over $40M cumulative. 

It would take over $100M to get Adley to sign for 8 years. 

I agree. A good comp is the Acuna contract, 8 years, $100M, signed in April 2019 entering his second year after winning ROY in 2018. That was widely regarded as a team friendly deal. Arguably, Acuna's .900 OPS puts him a little ahead of Adley, but then you have to consider positional adjustment, defensive value, and inflation. I think you could justify $120M for Adley, maybe more. I would go for it. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree. A good comp is the Acuna contract, 8 years, $100M, signed in April 2019 entering his second year after winning ROY in 2018. That was widely regarded as a team friendly deal. Arguably, Acuna's .900 OPS puts him a little ahead of Adley, but then you have to consider positional adjustment, defensive value, and inflation. I think you could justify $120M for Adley, maybe more. I would go for it. 

Acuna’s deal isn’t a barometer for anyone.  He made a mistake with that deal.  He was also younger when he signed it.  Adley would want more.  It’s definitely going to have to be higher, like you said at the end here.

Adley is going to finish in the top 2 of ROY voting at this rate, so he has 2 more years before arb1 kicks in.

2023: 750K (or whatever the exact new minimum is)

2024: 750k

2025: 5M

2026: 12M

2027: 22M

Rough numbers and, of course, he needs to stay good..so basically, he should see something in the area of 40 million through his arb seasons.  Could be a little more or a little less depending on other factors but this should be a rough ballpark.

It then comes down to how many FA years you can get him to sign off on. With the way FA is headed and with his ability level, he’s looking at 35+M a year in free agency.

So, let’s just call it 8/150 as what he will make.  You hope if you do this type of deal that you get a discount and maybe you can get him for between 120-135M.
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree. A good comp is the Acuna contract, 8 years, $100M, signed in April 2019 entering his second year after winning ROY in 2018. That was widely regarded as a team friendly deal. Arguably, Acuna's .900 OPS puts him a little ahead of Adley, but then you have to consider positional adjustment, defensive value, and inflation. I think you could justify $120M for Adley, maybe more. I would go for it. 

I'm sold that the bat would play at first or DH if he couldn't catch.  That adds a level of security for the team.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Acuna’s deal isn’t a barometer for anyone.  He made a mistake with that deal.  

 

 

He seems happy enough with it which is the important thing.  Not everyone needs to push for the most money.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Acuna’s deal isn’t a barometer for anyone.  He made a mistake with that deal.  He was also younger when he signed it.  Adley would want more.  It’s definitely going to have to be higher, like you said at the end here.

Adley is going to finish in the top 2 of ROY voting at this rate, so he has 2 more years before arb1 kicks in.

2023: 750K (or whatever the exact new minimum is)

2024: 750k

2025: 5M

2026: 12M

2027: 22M

Rough numbers and, of course, he needs to stay good..so basically, he should see something in the area of 40 million through his arb seasons.  Could be a little more or a little less depending on other factors but this should be a rough ballpark.

It then comes down to how many FA years you can get him to sign off on. With the way FA is headed and with his ability level, he’s looking at 35+M a year in free agency.

So, let’s just call it 8/150 as what he will make.  You hope if you do this type of deal that you get a discount and maybe you can get him for between 120-135M.
 

 

It's a barometer in that it shows what is possible. The player is getting six figures guaranteed up front in return for accepting a team friendly deal. It's not a "mistake" from a risk standpoint. If a player is dead set on maximizing their upside then he probably should not have bothered negotiating and held out for free agency instead. Either way, I said $120M (maybe more) as a target so I don't think we are far off.