Fangraphs has the Orioles finishing in last place by 2 games

[Greenpastures23]

They have the O's winning with 66. That's an improvement and would get them the number 1 pick again which would be wild.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Edited May 17, 2022 by Greenpastures23

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Greenpastures23 said:

They have the O's winning with 66. That's an improvement and would get them the number 1 pick again which would be wild.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

It wouldn't guarantee them the top pick.

I will say that Elias has the tanking part of the rebuild down pat.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Kind of wild they project the Reds to be so much better than the Os for the remainder of the season given that Reds have double the run differential of the Orioles (in the bad direction). Reflection of relative strength of schedules or just not updating priors headed into season?

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Kind of wild they project the Reds to be so much better than the Os for the remainder of the season given that Reds have double the run differential of the Orioles (in the bad direction). Reflection of relative strength of schedules or just not updating priors headed into season?

I think it's mostly that the priors are designed to fade slowly through the season, so that the projections don't overreact to fluky hot or cold stretches early on. 

[byrdz]

Well the skid HAS started at about the point it does every year. Like clockwork. 

[geschinger]

51 minutes ago, Greenpastures23 said:

They have the O's winning with 66. That's an improvement and would get them the number 1 pick again which would be wild.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

That would come close to what the baseline for what I consider a successful season.  At this point of the rebuild I'd like to see +15 wins from last year and then another +15 in 2023.  If they reach that threshold by the end of 2023 I will consider the rebuild to have been successful and the goal shifts to be a consistent contender.

[Aristotelian]

I don't think that projection includes the contributions of the #1 overall prospect and #1 pitching prospect.

[Spy Fox]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think that projection includes the contributions of the #1 overall prospect and #1 pitching prospect.

You can see the playing time projected by clicking on each position in the bar above the standings!

It includes 299 PA for Adley, 2.6 WAR.

It doesn't appear to include any IP for Grayson. But for the rotation overall it includes 62 IP for Lowther, 65 for Hall, 40 for Akin, and 40 Kremer. I have a feeling those IP projections haven't been updated in a while. 

[hutchead]

Yeah, the worst record would only give us a 16.5% chance of getting the top pick.

[eddie83]

So where the Orioles finished in prior seasons does not throw them out of the draft lottery? Only starts with this year and moving forward?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So where the Orioles finished in prior seasons does not throw them out of the draft lottery? Only starts with this year and moving forward?

Right, so other than suppressing payroll Elias has no reason to not try and field a competitive team next year.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Greenpastures23 said:

They have the O's winning with 66. That's an improvement and would get them the number 1 pick again which would be wild.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

If you check out the preseason OH prediction thread, over 65% of the posters who responded predicted that the Orioles would win 65 games or less. Fangraphs and the OH are pretty much in agreement. 

 

 

[Orioles0615]

41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think that projection includes the contributions of the #1 overall prospect and #1 pitching prospect.

 

Probably doesn't take into account September call ups