We’ve got five position players at 1.2 rWAR or better

[Frobby]

Right now, through 50 games 

Hays 1.6 rWAR

Mateo 1.5

Mullins 1.3

Mancini 1.3

Urias 1.2

That’s an impressive total.   There are only 37 position players in the entire AL at 1.2 rWAR or higher, an average of 2.47 per team.   So we’ve got double the league average.   Santander at 0.8 isn’t bad either.

What we are lacking is anyone having a superstar type season.  Our top player, Hays, is 16th in the league.  And once you get past Santander, we’re weak in the other three spots.   But hopefully we’ve got room for improvement at C and 1B, though 2B may be tough.   

I think Urias may have snuck up on some people, at 1.2 rWAR despite a .641 OPS.  But he’s played better than expected defensively, hit into very bad luck in April, and had a very solid May.  In 137 games as an Oriole he’s been worth 3.2 rWAR.  Fangraphs doesn’t like him as well (1.5 fWAR), but overall that’s pretty solid.  

It’s kind of amazing that three of these players are sub-.700 OPS and yet still rated well above average.  

[eddie83]

I was looking at this some yesterday. It does feel like to me from the eye ball test Mateo is a little high. His defense in recent weeks to me has regressed. 
 

From a basic OPS+ standpoint the Orioles have 6 players who should individually be 100 and higher. Adley, Ryan, Hays, Mullins, Mancini and Santander. Then you look at the numbers you provided Urias and Mateo are rating well. If this club can get out of the big 6 what they are capable of the Orioles put a very representative team on the field on a nightly basis. Urias has really come on. Odor has been fun to watch lately. Mateo could settle down with the glove you are getting production from all of them. I have the most faith in that group in Urias the rest of the way. Just don’t want that group to be automatic outs. 
 

I still think Mountcastle can be a .285-.295 hitter who walks a little bit more than what Jones did back in the day. Mullins can be better. Someone else started a thread about those two. I do think they are the keys to how good this lineup can be. 
 

The bench is weak but in general they won’t play much. The team has no depth in the infield. Need to avoid injuries all over but especially there. 

[eddie83]

Super SSS but the club doesn’t really have anyone dragging them down at the moment. You mentioned second base. Odor needs to keep hitting….

 

Last year Valaika was -1.9, Franco -1.6, Martin -1.0.  Owings right now is -0.4 and Odor is -0.2. 
 

Hays, Mancini and Santander are all better than last year. Mullins below. Mountcastle fairly similar. 

[DrungoHazewood]

There's some SSS weirdness going on here.  By bb-ref the Orioles are 6.8 wins above replacement among non-pitchers and 5.8 for the pitchers.  Total of 12.6.  A .294 winning percentage is about 15 wins, so that would imply that the O's should be a 27 or 28 win team.

But they're actually a 21 win team.  And their runs scored and runs allowed imply they should be a 21 win team.

I don't really know the reason for the delta, but my guess is a combination of random variation, the new park effects, and the generally reduced offensive environment are contributing factors.  Just don't ask me to break down the cause-and-effect.

[Orioles0615]

I think Rutch will get there too once he starts hitting. 

[Just Regular]

Palmer last night said Eckersley was quizzing him on "who is the best player".   Jim said he gave an answer of he thought maybe Hays, but also that Eckersley pushed back with "what about Urias?".    I assume that is just a hometown announcer seeing somebody good for a few days, but like the way he's thinking.    

Obviously no self-respecting veteran will give Adley or Grayson the homerun chain easily.

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There's some SSS weirdness going on here.  By bb-ref the Orioles are 6.8 wins above replacement among non-pitchers and 5.8 for the pitchers.  Total of 12.6.  A .294 winning percentage is about 15 wins, so that would imply that the O's should be a 27 or 28 win team.

But they're actually a 21 win team.  And their runs scored and runs allowed imply they should be a 21 win team.

I don't really know the reason for the delta, but my guess is a combination of random variation, the new park effects, and the generally reduced offensive environment are contributing factors.  Just don't ask me to break down the cause-and-effect.

OPS+92, ERA+100. I know different stats but worth mentioning.

Perez is at 1.4 and Lyles is at 0.1. Thought that was interesting. 

[Just Regular]

In microscopic samples, I think WPA might really distort things?

I can't otherwise explain why 2-inning Nick Vespi gets his headshot in 9th place on the 2022 Orioles with "0.9" WAR.

[eddie83]

I looked at Yankees out of curiosity. 
 

Position players 8.0

Judge 2.3

Donaldson 1.5

Torres 1.3

DJ 1.2

Stanton 1.1

Kiner-Falefa  0.5

Rizzo 0.4.  Rizzo dWAR is -0.9. Was bad last year also for what’s it’s worth. 

Hicks -0.4

Gallo -0.2 

Pitchers 9.5

 

OPS+109, ERA+129. 

[sportsfan8703]

I like our guys but… Mateo is kind of a WAR compiler with his defense and steals. Urias is also getting a big boost from playing 3rd a lot. Flaherty was almost a 2.0 WAR player there one year. 
 

I’m as high on Urias and Mateo as anyone. I think Mateo has some Mora in him. Mora started out the same way with out the BB, but he did all the other things, just like Mateo. Urias is a nugget. He has good EV numbers. The guy is a piece for the future. You can win with that guy on the team. 
 

What’s hurt the offense this year has been holding AR down, nagging injuries, and the lack of production from Mountcastle and Mullins. 
 

We’re real close on offense and with our bullpen. Maybe 1-2 pieces away from contending, not just competing. It’s all about the rotation or piecing together the rotation now. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like our guys but… Mateo is kind of a WAR compiler with his defense and steals. Urias is also getting a big boost from playing 3rd a lot. Flaherty was almost a 2.0 WAR player there one year. 

Playing third doesn't make you any better or worse.  The position adjustment for third is +2.5 runs per full season. If you can't hit and you can't field you'll still have a poor WAR.

In 2013 Flaherty was a +1.2 win player in about half-time play because he wasn't completely awful at bat, was a positive defender and a +2 run baserunner.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

In microscopic samples, I think WPA might really distort things?

I can't otherwise explain why 2-inning Nick Vespi gets his headshot in 9th place on the 2022 Orioles with "0.9" WAR.

Neither the Fangraphs nor bb-ref versions of WAR incorporate WPA.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like our guys but… Mateo is kind of a WAR compiler with his defense

Just like Ripken

[Just Regular]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Neither the Fangraphs nor bb-ref versions of WAR incorporate WPA.

In that case I cannot explain it at all.   

I do enjoy Vespi's 40% AAA K rate and look forward to seeing what he can do in 19/26ths of the weeks the next couple seasons.

[Spy Fox]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

In microscopic samples, I think WPA might really distort things?

I can't otherwise explain why 2-inning Nick Vespi gets his headshot in 9th place on the 2022 Orioles with "0.9" WAR.

 

48 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Neither the Fangraphs nor bb-ref versions of WAR incorporate WPA.

I noticed that same Vespi thing. I know WAR isn't really designed for small sample sizes like this, but can anyone explain how 2 scoreless innings leads to 0.9 rWAR?

He's at 0.1 fWAR which makes more sense to me.