Comparing the 2020 and 2022 Orioles to date (both 25-35)

[Frobby]

The Orioles’ record is now 25-35, the same record they finished with in the shortened 2020 season.  So how do those teams stack up?

Pythagorean record:  The 2020 team underperformed its Pythag, which was 28-32 based on 274 runs scored, 294 runs allowed (-20).   The 2022 team is one game under its 26-34 Pythag, at 236 runs scored, 277 allowed (-41).   

Momentum: The 2020 team started strong, going 19-21 in the first 40 games, but was running on fumes at the end, 6-14 in the last 20.   I really had the feeling that the team would have crumbled badly if the season hadn’t been so short.  This year’s team has been steadier, going 16-24 in the first 40 and 9-11  in the last 20.   

Offense: The 2020 team was 8th in the AL in runs scored, 7th in OPS, with a 102 OPS+.   Of the six semi-regulars with an OPS+ over 100, only two are still with the team today: Ryan Mountcastle, who racked up a 137 OPS+ in 35 games after getting called up, and Anthony Santander, who had a 135 OPS+ in the first 37 games before getting hurt.   The others were Jose Iglesias 157, Renato Nunez 118, Pat Valaika (!) 111 and Chance Sisco 103.   Just shows you what a relatively small sample can do!  That team used 19 position players,,only six of whom are still with the organization (Santander, Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart and Ramon Urias).  This year’s team is 14th in runs scored, 12th in OPS, with a 92 OPS+.   Players over 100 OPS+ are Trey Mancini (132), Austin Hays (131), Anthony Santander (115) and Ryan Mountcastle (101).   They’ve used 18 different position players to date.

Starting Pitchers:  The 2020 starters were 11th in the AL in ERA at 5.09 and threw 267 innings, 11th in the league.  The team used 10 pitchers to make 60 starts, with Alex Cobb and John Means leading the team with 10 starts each.  Five of the ten — Cobb, Asher Wojochiewski, Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc, and Thomas Eshelman — are no longer with the team.  Of the other five, Means is hurt, Keegan Akin and Jorge Lopez have found success in the bullpen, and Bruce Zimmermann and Dean Kremer are currently in the rotation.   This year’s rotation is 14th in ERA at 5.25, 14th in IP at 274.1.   The O’s have used 10 starters again this year, but Tyler Wells, Jordan Lyles and Bruce Zimmermann each have made 12 starts.  Kyle Bradish and Spenser Watkins have made 8 each.   

Bullpen: The 2020 bullpen was pretty good, sporting a 3.90 ERA, 7th in the league, with 11 saves, 13th in the league, with 7 blown saves.  The team used 22 relievers (5 of whom also started at least one game), including five who threw 20+ innings — Travis Lakins Sr., Cole Sulser, Paul Fry, Tanner Scott and Thomas Eshelman.  Mychal Givens and Miguel Castro were among the bullpen leaders before being traded at the deadline.  Only 5 of the 22 pitchers used in the bullpen are still in the organization: Lakins, Dillon Tate, Zimmermann, Lopez and Akin.   This year’s pen has a 3.07 ERA, 5th in the AL, and 11 saves, tied for 11th, with 5 blown saves.  They’ve used 21 different relievers, six of whom have thrown 20+ innings: Akin, Tate, Lopez, Felix Bautista, Joey Krehbiel and Bryan Baker.

Conclusion: The 2020 offense was sort of fluky good, and significantly better than the 2020 offense to date.   The pitching was quite similar both years, with a pretty solid bullpen supporting a shaky starting staff.  The 2020 starters were a little better than this year’s, whereas the 2022 bullpen is a little better than 2020’s.

Theres been a lot of turnover since 2020.  45 players were used that year, only 13 of whom are still in the organization today.

Overall, I feel a little better about this year’s group.  As mentioned, that 2020 team was running on fumes at the end, whereas this team has played pretty respectably throughout.   I think the bullpen will continue to be good, and I still think the offense has potential to improve.   The starters have been and will be the issue for this team, especially with both Lyles and Zimmermann sputtering.

[Tony-OH]

Good research.

I have a little different conclusion. We're four years into Elias's rebuild and the major league team is no better and there are not a ton of guys on the cusp that will be impact players to make the team better. Without significant FA signings, I'm not sure I see the core that's going to make this team a contender anytime soon.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Good research.

I have a little different conclusion. We're four years into Elias's rebuild and the major league team is no better and there are not a ton of guys on the cusp that will be impact players to make the team better. Without significant FA signings, I'm not sure I see the core that's going to make this team a contender anytime soon.

If you just look at the 2020 and 2022 teams I agree with Frobby.

If you factor in the time invested it looks a lot worse.  The 2020 system had Adley, Gunnar, Greyson and Hall in it.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good research.

I have a little different conclusion. We're four years into Elias's rebuild and the major league team is no better and there are not a ton of guys on the cusp that will be impact players to make the team better. Without significant FA signings, I'm not sure I see the core that's going to make this team a contender anytime soon.

Disagree on the “not a ton of guys on the cusp” line. Grayson, Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers should all be in Baltimore this time next year. If this team as currently constructed is a 65-70 win team, adding those guys should have us over .500. A few respectable FA signings and/or trades would make us playoff contenders. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Disagree on the “not a ton of guys on the cusp” line. Grayson, Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers should all be in Baltimore this time next year. If this team as currently constructed is a 65-70 win team, adding those guys should have us over .500. A few respectable FA signings and/or trades would make us playoff contenders. 

Assuming everything with both of them works out as well as could be expected (90% percentile), how many combined ML innings do you see Greyson and Hall getting in 2023?

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Assuming everything with both of them works out as well as could be expected (90% percentile), how many combined ML innings do you see Greyson and Hall getting in 2023?

At 90th percentile, I’d expect 300 IP. I think it’s reasonable to expect in the 250-300 range if they’re healthy. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

At 90th percentile, I’d expect 300 IP. I think it’s reasonable to expect in the 250-300 range if they’re healthy. 

Even if healthy and effective I don't think they go past 250 combined and I'm not sure all of those innings will be in the majors.

I think with a lot of franchises they would but Elias is so conservative with usage and obsessed with service time manipulation.

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if healthy and effective I don't think they go past 250 combined and I'm not sure all of those innings will be in the majors.

I think with a lot of franchises they would but Elias is so conservative with usage and obsessed with service time manipulation.

I assume Hall gets around 100 this year., possibly more. Then can ramp up to 140ish next year. Grayson should be in the 150 range next year. Either way, having those two guys pitch 18-20% of our innings next year will be a big improvement. 

[seak05]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if healthy and effective I don't think they go past 250 combined and I'm not sure all of those innings will be in the majors.

I think with a lot of franchises they would but Elias is so conservative with usage and obsessed with service time manipulation.

I think you're more obsessed with service time manipulation then Elias is tbh. Granted Elias might be lying, but: he has heavily implied that Adley would have been on the OD roster if he hadn't been injured, he has said the plan is to have Hall up this year (and I don't think Hall is currently MLB ready), the plan was clearly to have Grayson up, and Elias has said he'll be in play for OD roster next year, Gunnar is the youngest player currently at Triple-A etc.

I think it is eminently reasonable to expect all of those players plus Stowers and Westburg to feature in the beginning part of next years team (Gunnar probably last, bc he's the youngest, unless he torches Triple-A), and we will probably see several of them in the majors this year. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I think you're more obsessed with service time manipulation then Elias is tbh. Granted Elias might be lying, but: he has heavily implied that Adley would have been on the OD roster if he hadn't been injured, he has said the plan is to have Hall up this year (and I don't think Hall is currently MLB ready), the plan was clearly to have Grayson up, and Elias has said he'll be in play for OD roster next year, Gunnar is the youngest player currently at Triple-A etc.

I think it is eminently reasonable to expect all of those players plus Stowers and Westburg to feature in the beginning part of next years team (Gunnar probably last, bc he's the youngest, unless he torches Triple-A), and we will probably see several of them in the majors this year. 

Yea, I can't get over him slow rolling someone like Mountcastle, not having Adley in the majors last year and then sending Grayson out of ML camp after two innings.

It just seems like it's a pretty big deal to him.

As for Hall, he's on the 40.  A pitcher on the 40 should expect to see time in the majors at some point.

[RZNJ]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Good research.

I have a little different conclusion. We're four years into Elias's rebuild and the major league team is no better and there are not a ton of guys on the cusp that will be impact players to make the team better. Without significant FA signings, I'm not sure I see the core that's going to make this team a contender anytime soon.

Adley, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Bradish, Rodriguez, Hall.  Those guys are all close or already here.  We have a young outfield already.  A young 1B.  The biggest holes are in the IF and Henderson and Westburg can help upgrade there.

We have a young, capable bullpen.  Any FA help will probably come in more starting pitching. Sure, there are more growing pains ahead but there's reason for optimism.  Maybe not playoff optimism but just headed in a upward direction optimism.

[MurphDogg]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Adley, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Bradish, Rodriguez, Hall.  Those guys are all close or already here.  We have a young outfield already.  A young 1B.  The biggest holes are in the IF and Henderson and Westburg can help upgrade there.

We have a young, capable bullpen.  Any FA help will probably come in more starting pitching. Sure, there are more growing pains ahead but there's reason for optimism.  Maybe not playoff optimism but just headed in a upward direction optimism.

Yeah, a free agent starting pitcher and a free agent infielder (2B, 3B or SS) and we could be looking at potentially average or better Major Leaguers at every position. 85 wins wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility and figure out what we have from there.

[SteveA]

One thing about the oft-repeated statement that the 2020 team would have been much worse in a longer season.   I certainly agree they were trending that way.   But you do have to take into account the schedule.   The 2020 team had played exclusively against the AL East, and an NL East that had 4 out of 5 teams that were contenders.

So if there was a way to magically add 102 games to that season to create a standard 162 game season, the additional games would have been much easier, only a small handful agaisnt the AL East and all the rest against the ALC & ALW, which had 6 teams with losing records and 4 with winning records.

So yes, we were going in the wrong direction, but we would have faced a much easier schedule the rest of the way if that season had somehow continued.

[seak05]

52 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, I can't get over him slow rolling someone like Mountcastle, not having Adley in the majors last year and then sending Grayson out of ML camp after two innings.

I don't think Elias slow played Mountcastle (or at least not in the way you mean), I don't think Elias thought Mountcastle could play defense, and I don't think he's a fan of his offensive approach. As to Grayson, he was always starting the year at Triple A, going to each minor league level seems to be something that is important to Elias. 

[Just Regular]

The 2020 Orioles probably got a >50th percentile pitchers outcome thanks to some pleasant surprises from Milone and Eshelman, while I believe we can lock in that the 2022 Orioles will be <50 relative to what thousands of 2022 simulations would average due to injury depriving the team of all 300 of its best innings.

2023's team maybe gets 200 innings of Rodriguez and Means back.

Before imports Glass Half Full you can hope for Rodriguez 160, Bradish 160, Wells 160, Hall 140, Akin 90, Lopez 70, Tate 70, Bautista 70, Vespi 60, Ignacio 60, Means 40 for almost 1100 innings a team might not be embarrassed to pitch.

The Cionel-Kremer-Zimmermann tier guy gives some other floor behind those front liners.   I'm shorting Cionel here to offset some fanciful with Vespi and Ignacio, but think Cionel is just too many walks to rely on.

That group of pitchers baton-wise really would just need to carry the club to July as I believe pitcher rentals would occur in appropriate circumstances.

Even if we can't go from Lyles' $7mm to Correa's $37mm in one +30 gulp, I hope next year's Lyles character is something a little more interesting, whether a shortstop or pitcher(s).