O's on the edge of contention in July

[wildcard]

In general contenders don't trade  away key players.  There is good reason for that. The are trying to win.   Sure there have been a few exceptions.  But in general that  is  the practice.    And it makes little sense to trade your good players when you are trying to win.

The O's are approaching that position.   They are 4 out of a playoff spot and charging forward.   If they get to within 3 games of a playoff spot in July I would call that contending.

There is a pretty big hurdle in the way.   Its that 10 games they have versus the Rays and Yanks before the deadline.   That should hold up the O's from trading until they see how that turns out. 

The trading of Trey should not be a given at this point.  He is a key player on this team.   He can be extended or traded.   And the extension would insure that he stays for the rest of the season.    Then in the off season the O's can look at who will be on the 2023 O's team.   Just because Trey is extended does not mean he stays with the O's for the whole contract.  But now when the O's need him to contend.   I think its important he stays if the O's are within 3 games at the deadline.

Odor should stay the rest of the season if the O's are contending also.  He is a leader also.   A veteran cheerleader  that holds the team together if nothing else.  He doesn't have to be a regular starter.  Younger players can be added in the 2nd half that may play more than he does.

Lyles also needs to stay if the O's are contending.  He is at a 4.50 ERA.  He is pitching important innings.  The O's have an option for 11m on him for next year.  And depending on how things turn out, he may be worth it.

Posters make the point that there are several teams ahead of the O's in the race for the playoff.  The O's passed the Rangers and White Sox this week.  And if they play well that will take care of itself.   The O's focus should be on how they play and we as fans should also.

So if the O's continue to surge I will be fine if he O's sit out the trade deadline. If their additions are Hall,  Grayson, Harvey, Vavra, Stowers, Westburg  and  Gunnar that would be fine.     And yes all of them should be promoted some time in the 2nd half  if that gives the O's the best chance to win.   Because that is what contending teams do.

 

[Sports Guy]

It’a a delicate balance.  End of the day, Elias is still going to look at the long haul.  I think guys are still traded but it’s possible they add too.  
 

Somewhere here mentioned they heard Elias say he wants to buy and sell.  If that’s true, that’s the strategy that makes the most sense.

TBH, the guys I feel they need to trade the most are Santander and Tate.

[ChosenOne21]

I'm pretty sure this is a better team if we just replace Odor with Westburg or Vavra

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

In general contenders don't trade  away key players.  There is good reason for that. The are trying to win.   Sure there have been a few exceptions.  But in general that  is  the practice.    And it makes little sense to trade your good players when you are trying to win.

The O's are approaching that position.   They are 4 out of a playoff spot and charging forward.   If they get to within 3 games of a playoff spot in July I would call that contending.

There is a pretty big hurdle in the way.   Its that 10 games they have versus the Rays and Yanks before the deadline.   That should hold up the O's from trading until they see how that turns out. 

The trading of Trey should not be a given at this point.  He is a key player on this team.   He can be extended or traded.   And the extension would insure that he stays for the rest of the season.    Then in the off season the O's can look at who will be on the 2023.   Just because Trey is extended does not mean he stays with the O's for the whole contract.  But now when the O's need him to contend.   I think its important he stays if the O's are within 3 games at the deadline.

Odor should stay the rest of the season if the O's are contending also.  He is a leader also.   A veteran cheerleader  that holds the team together if nothing else.  He doesn't have to be a regular starter.  Younger players can be added in the 2nd half that may play more than he does.

Lyles also needs to stay if the O's are contending.  He is at a 4.50 ERA.  He is pitching important innings.  The O's have an option for 11m on him for next year.  And depending on how things turn out, he may be worth it.

Posters make the point that there are several teams ahead of the O's in the race for the playoff.  The O's passed the Rangers and White Sox this week.  And if they play well that will take care of itself.   The O's focus should be on how they play and we as fans should also.

So if the O's continue to surge I will be fine if he O's sit out the trade deadline. If their additions are Hall,  Grayson, Harvey, Vavra, Stowers, Westburg  and  Gunnar that would be fine.     And yes all of them should be promoted some time in the 2nd half  if that gives the O's the best chance to win.   Because that is what contending teams do.

 

You don’t deviate from the plan because you are contending for a @wildcard….LOL.

They are 20 games behind the Yankees.the long term goal is to fill that gap. #stickwiththeplan. By the way I’m no longer suggesting we trade guys for marginal returns/filler. But, they should be clearing Santander and Lopez while their value is high. If you are not trading Trea or Lyles you need to extend them. I wonder if Trea would lock in his mutual option if approached 

[sportsfan8703]

We needed a guy like Odor to bring us that swagger and to be the outspoken leader. Trey seems more the the lead by example type like his mentor Trumbo. Adley is just a rookie, but you can tell we’re 100% into the Adley effect. 

[Aristotelian]

The thing is, we have Stowers who is ready right now, can replace 90% of Trey's production, and is a better fit for our ballpark. We could trade Trey and still contend. I do think our situation increases the chances we will trade just one of Trey and Santander instead of both. If the return is better for Santander maybe Trey is the guy to keep, and even talk team friendly extension.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

In general contenders don't trade  away key players.  There is good reason for that. The are trying to win.   Sure there have been a few exceptions.  But in general that  is  the practice.    And it makes little sense to trade your good players when you are trying to win.

The O's are approaching that position.   They are 4 out of a playoff spot and charging forward.   If they get to within 3 games of a playoff spot in July I would call that contending.

There is a pretty big hurdle in the way.   Its that 10 games they have versus the Rays and Yanks before the deadline.   That should hold up the O's from trading until they see how that turns out. 

The trading of Trey should not be a given at this point.  He is a key player on this team.   He can be extended or traded.   And the extension would insure that he stays for the rest of the season.    Then in the off season the O's can look at who will be on the 2023.   Just because Trey is extended does not mean he stays with the O's for the whole contract.  But now when the O's need him to contend.   I think its important he stays if the O's are within 3 games at the deadline.

Odor should stay the rest of the season if the O's are contending also.  He is a leader also.   A veteran cheerleader  that holds the team together if nothing else.  He doesn't have to be a regular starter.  Younger players can be added in the 2nd half that may play more than he does.

Lyles also needs to stay if the O's are contending.  He is at a 4.50 ERA.  He is pitching important innings.  The O's have an option for 11m on him for next year.  And depending on how things turn out, he may be worth it.

Posters make the point that there are several teams ahead of the O's in the race for the playoff.  The O's passed the Rangers and White Sox this week.  And if they play well that will take care of itself.   The O's focus should be on how they play and we as fans should also.

So if the O's continue to surge I will be fine if he O's sit out the trade deadline. If their additions are Hall,  Grayson, Harvey, Vavra, Stowers, Westburg  and  Gunnar that would be fine.     And yes all of them should be promoted some time in the 2nd half  if that gives the O's the best chance to win.   Because that is what contending teams do.

 

How does the math work?

[Brooks The Great]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The thing is, we have Stowers who is ready right now, can replace 90% of Trey's production, and is a better fit for our ballpark. We could trade Trey and still contend. I do think our situation increases the chances we will trade just one of Trey and Santander instead of both. If the return is better for Santander maybe Trey is the guy to keep, and even talk team friendly extension.

I view Stowers as the direct replacement (and likely upgrade) to Santander, because Santander plays in RF way more than Trey does. 

The idea of Stowers replacing Santander and how good our outfield defense will be is extremely exciting. If Stowers shows anywhere near the power he does in the minors, that's even better.

I don't disagree with the notion that the chances of keeping Trey increase if we remain in contention, simply because he's the better hitter. But if the Mets are willing to overpay to get him (in other words if there's any chance of getting Brett Baty+ for Mancini, Tate, and perhaps a third piece), we need to deal Trey. I think there's a good chance of that, because we all know Buck is pushing the Mets front office to acquire Trey.

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The thing is, we have Stowers who is ready right now, can replace 90% of Trey's production, and is a better fit for our ballpark. We could trade Trey and still contend. I do think our situation increases the chances we will trade just one of Trey and Santander instead of both. If the return is better for Santander maybe Trey is the guy to keep, and even talk team friendly extension.

How do you come to the conclusion that's as a fresh rookie, Stowers would replace 90% of Trey's production this year?  No doubt he is the better long-term option but we have seen many more highly touted rookies than Stowers come up and struggle initially.  Totkelson, or April Witt for example.  In terms of this season we don't know what Stowers might do, but we have a pretty good idea of wh at Trey will give us.

Not saying we shouldnt trade Trey.  But the context of this particular discussion is the fact that we are on the fringe of contention this year, and to assume that Stowers would come up and immediately replace 90% of Trey's production is a big leap, IMO.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

How do you come to the conclusion that's as a fresh rookie, Stowers would replace 90% of Trey's production this year?  No doubt he is the better long-term option but we have seen many more highly touted rookies than Stowers come up and struggle initially.  Totkelson, or April Witt for example.  In terms of this season we don't know what Stowers might do, but we have a pretty good idea of wh at Trey will give us.

Not saying we shouldnt trade Trey.  But the context of this particular discussion is the fact that we are on the fringe of contention this year, and to assume that Stowers would come up and immediately replace 90% of Trey's production is a big leap, IMO.

We've also seen Trey and established hitters go through slumps. Overall seems like Stowers is a good bet to put up a 750ish OPS while providing more defensive flexibility. Of course, there are no guarantees either way.

[sportsfan8703]

At what point is it worth more to just keep Mancini for our own playoff run versus trading him for two organizational top 10-20 prospects?  I think it’s worth just trying to finish as strong as possible and trading him away could hurt our momentum. 
 

Also, DL Hall can be spot started and used as a matchup weapon. We don’t need to “Gausman” him, but using him for 4-5 IP starts every 10 days seems ideal. 

[TommyPickles]

I think it has become completely clear that we should be competing for a playoff spot in 2023. 

[ScGO's]

Its easy to fall in love with "our guys" when things are going well (Buck really conditioned us for that).  However, its a balance of economics, talent accusations, and realistic projections. 

I think Mancini, Santander, Lopez, and Lyles need to be spun for young talent and a bit of salary relief.

I think the O's can do this AND still fight for playoff contention as many of these pieces have potential replacements.

Lyles could be replaced by Harvey.

Santander could be replaced by Stowers

Mancini's tough to replace, however, The O's are deep enough to get quality ABs out of the DH spot with Adley needing rest and McKenna earning a bigger role in the OF allowing our other 3 OF to take a break in the DH spot. Nevin is running out of chances but Diaz, Vavra. and even Stewart are looking for a chance next. They may not replace Trey there, but I think there will still be production from DH. We could see Westburg or Henderson too, and that could move Urias to DH.

I think Bautista can take the closer role, Baker and Perez are starting to step up big, and I think Hall can step in and fill the hole in the bullpen that Lopez leaves.

If the O's trade Mullins or Hays, then I don't think that hole can be filled yet. I think we may need to keep those two for the next three seasons. Hence another reason to save some money by trading Lopez, Mancini, Santander, and Lyles at the minimum. I think its not out of the realm to think the O's can make these moves AND still continue to push for a WildCard spot

 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, TommyPickles said:

I think it has become completely clear that we should be competing for a playoff spot in 2023. 

2022*. Fixed that for ya. 

[TommyPickles]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

2022*. Fixed that for ya. 

I like your style.

Also, Baseball-Reference now gives the O's a 6.1% chance at making the postseason in 2022, so Why Not?