For those who think we went a bit under slot on some picks, have we drafted any over slot guys?

[seak05]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wagner though is a COVID sophomore, so he's 21. I doubt he can get more than his slot next year at 22. Plus, Elias/Brad Ciolek are very good at knowing guy' number and they have yet to lose a high draft pick they tried to sign.

Nah he's just a garden variety draft eligible sophomore, he'll turn 21 in August. I do agree he'll sign though, I just wouldn't be surprised to see him get a bit over slot. 

[jrobb21613]

I like the draft and think they’ve got some solid value so far. Not one guy really stands out as over/under slot. Let’s see what day 3 brings. I could see Elias going over slot today on a young arm.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Has anyone run the numbers?  Are sophomores more likely to be overslot over the years?  Do they often go back to school?

Draft eligible sophomores are old for their class I don't think most of them want to go back and try again.

Rhodes and Trimble were both 20 year old soon to be 21 year old who were both draft eligible sophomores last year.   Rhodes was about 600K overslot and Trimble was a few hundred K under slot.  Go figure.    I think we don't know until we know which ones are over or under.

[Tony-OH]

40 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Nah he's just a garden variety draft eligible sophomore, he'll turn 21 in August. I do agree he'll sign though, I just wouldn't be surprised to see him get a bit over slot. 

Ah, gotcha. Tell you the truth, I got him mixed up with another guy. Take me a bit to learn the new guys! Either way, I agree, he will sign and I'm guessing it will be around slot but could be a little more.

[Roll Tide]

I think he took Ardoin too early and have been vocal about it in the other thread. It has to be a money move IMO. 

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Wagner though is a COVID sophomore, so he's 21. I doubt he can get more than his slot next year at 22. Plus, Elias/Brad Ciolek are very good at knowing guy' number and they have yet to lose a high draft pick they tried to sign.

I am sure they know his price, but the guy was ACC player of the year.  He might figure if he goes back, he shows it wasn't a fluke especially since he hit 16 homers in his last 24 games or something like that.  He has more leverage than a junior but your point about his age is well-taken.

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Has anyone run the numbers?  Are sophomores more likely to be overslot over the years?  Do they often go back to school?

Draft eligible sophomores are old for their class I don't think most of them want to go back and try again.

Jud Fabian went back to school.  They have to be more likely to go back to school than juniors who lose all leverage.   

[geschinger]

5 hours ago, LookinUp said:

My best guess is that if ownership allows Elias to go to 104.9% of his draft pool, he still has some money to spend.

Doubtful the Orioles or any other team willingly exceeds 100% of the draft pool and willingly takes the punishment.  We should assume the draft pool is a treated as a hard cap.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Doubtful the Orioles or any other team willingly exceeds 100% of the draft pool and willingly takes the punishment.  We should assume the draft pool is a treated as a hard cap.

I could be wrong, but I don't think there's punishment until you go to 105%. 

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think there's punishment until you go to 105%. 

Mike Elias can't get Exceeds Expectations on his performance review?

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I could be wrong, but I don't think there's punishment until you go to 105%. 

Punishment starts once the pool is exceeded but is only financial until you cross the 105% threshold at which point you start losing future picks. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Doubtful the Orioles or any other team willingly exceeds 100% of the draft pool and willingly takes the punishment.  We should assume the draft pool is a treated as a hard cap.

Except 20 teams did it last year and the Pirates have done it every year since 2013.

Its a 75% tax on whatever the overage is.  For the Os, they would have had to pay 1.4M total if they went the 825k.  That 600k isn’t much of a penalty.

[MurphDogg]

17 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Doubtful the Orioles or any other team willingly exceeds 100% of the draft pool and willingly takes the punishment.  We should assume the draft pool is a treated as a hard cap.

More than half the teams exceeded the cap last year and about half went to almost exactly 4.9% over.

[86this]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except 20 teams did it last year and the Pirates have done it every year since 2013.

Its a 75% tax on whatever the overage is.  For the Os, they would have had to pay 1.4M total if they went the 825k.  That 600k isn’t much of a penalty.

Use all of the $$ on the Cody Sedlock trade.

[Frobby]

My initial impressions of who might be overslot or not last year were incorrect, so I’m making no assumptions.   Just get everyone signed, please.