Struggling to understand criticism of contact play in the 10th inning

[HelenaEngineer]

I am happy to be educated on this, and I haven't played since I was in high school, but I just don't see a problem with the contact play when there are runners on 1st and 3rd and no outs. The one thing you absolutely can't do is stay anchored on 3rd while the Sox turn a double play. With Urias at the plate and Odor on 1st, you don't have a lot of speed on the bases. By going from 3rd, you take the double play out of the picture and worst case end up 1st and 2nd with 1 out - which is much better than runner on 3rd and 2 outs. You give up the sac fly for a win opportunity, but you still are just a base hit away from a win with 1 out. 

It would be nice for the runner to make a good evaluation of the double play probability by holding off, and in this case with a ball down the line and not smoked I could see that an all-knowing base runner might have judged they couldn't turn it and gone back to 3rd. That hesitation has a price also, though, since if he determines a DP is a risk and then runs, he has given up the chance to beat the throw to the plate or at least put some pressure on the infielder to handle the ball cleanly and make a good throw under some time pressure.

If there were no runner on 1st, I would 100% agree that the contact play from 3rd would be a bad call. Beat me up and I won't take it personally, but I make the same call the Orioles did just about every time in that situation.

[Hank Scorpio]

It should be a situational judgement call IMO... 

There was no chance Harrison was turning two from foul territory with a jump throw. 

[FlaO'sFan]

Yeah, no way was he going to turn 2, and imo the most precious thing in that situation, to loosely paraphrase Earl, was your runner on third. There is always a good chance of being thrown out at the plate from the 1st or 3rd baseman on a fielded ball when going home from third base, but if he simply waits and the ball gets by the 3rd baseman, he can walk home. If not he forces the 3rd baseman to still make a play while maintaining his position on 3rd. There is not much downside to playing it conservatively in that situation with 0 out, but getting thrown out at the plate was a huge advantage to the White Sox.

It was such a bang bang play, though, I don't think criticism is warranted here, he will score on that exact same play other times.

Edited August 26, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[HelenaEngineer]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

It should be a situational judgement call IMO... 

There was no chance Harrison was turning two from foul territory with a jump throw. 

I get that, but if the baserunner takes the time to be able to make that evaluation, the chance to beat a throw to the plate is gone.  I don't think it is easy to make that assessment instantaneously when the ball is hit. 

[DrungoHazewood]

Roughly 90% of criticism of in-game strategy in baseball is based on the fact that this particular strategy didn't result in a run being scored 30 seconds prior to the criticism.  With little or no thought given to whether or not it was a justifiable choice given the odds of all possible outcomes of that play.  

Corollary: No strategic choice in any MLB game has ever gone publicly unquestioned since the internet became a thing.

[Hank Scorpio]

Totally agree that It's not an easy play as a runner. If you're told to go on contact then you really aren't watching to see how hard it's hit, where it's hit, etc... but when you're on third base and you're the winning run and there's nobody out... I dunno. I would just exercise a little more caution on a ball that close to the line.

Certainly doesn't mean I'm right  and it's not like it's a black and white situation, just a preference of approach I guess. 

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Roughly 90% of criticism of in-game strategy in baseball is based on the fact that this particular strategy didn't result in a run being scored 30 seconds prior to the criticism.  With little or no thought given to whether or not it was a justifiable choice given the odds of all possible outcomes of that play.  

Corollary: No strategic choice in any MLB game has ever gone publicly unquestioned since the internet became a thing.

Yes, this. It's absolutely Monday morning QB'ing. 

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

It should be a situational judgement call IMO... 

There was no chance Harrison was turning two from foul territory with a jump throw. 

I agree with this although running on contact doesn't call for "judgement".   You run on contact.   

[RZNJ]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I agree with this although running on contact doesn't call for "judgement".   You run on contact.   

I do think the contact play with no outs is a bad play in that situation.   Also think having a pull hitter like Odor sacrifice with a runner on 2nd was also another bad call even though it worked out.

[PeregrineT]

2 hours ago, HelenaEngineer said:

I get that, but if the baserunner takes the time to be able to make that evaluation, the chance to beat a throw to the plate is gone.  I don't think it is easy to make that assessment instantaneously when the ball is hit. 

I certainly dont think its easy to make that assessment, but I think its a pretty big baserunning error on his part.  Its definitely quick.  But with no outs, theres no way you can just go on that.  He should not be trying to beat out a throw to the plate.  If he hesitates, its great, because either the ball gets through and he scores easily, or it gets stopped and he stays safe.

 

Theres no way the fielder was going to be able to turn two, and even if what you said was correct that he was keeping them from turning two that was the worst way to do it. If THAT was the case he SHOULD have hesitated and taken a few steps down the line, because the fielder could never throw to 2nd if Hays threatened to go home.  If that ball happens 100 times you should hesitate 100 times.  Thats the play.  Plus, a runner on 3rd with 2 outs is more valuable than a runner on 2nd with 1 due to the ability to score on an error and wild pitch, and how it takes away the pitchers abilities to throw breaking balls in the dirt.

Edited August 26, 2022 by PeregrineT

[Fuzzball22]

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Fuzzball22

[Hank Scorpio]

 

52 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree with this although running on contact doesn't call for "judgement".   You run on contact.   

Yessir. 

 

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I do think the contact play with no outs is a bad play in that situation.   Also think having a pull hitter like Odor sacrifice with a runner on 2nd was also another bad call even though it worked out.

This is essentially what I am saying. It's the wrong call in that circumstance.

[oldfan]

I'm still trying to figure out why the White Sox have the third baseman standing on the foul line, good intell I guess.

[eddie83]

I still don’t get why the Orioles didn’t steal second base to eliminate this.

 

Would they have the guts to throw down ?

[Satyr3206]

Running on contact is terrible. See where the ball is going then decide. Play smart.