Tom Verducci: How the Orioles Became the Most Unlikely Playoff Contender in MLB History

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

True, I would have to go find the actual statement to see if raised or options or ??? were implied. Either way I won't believe in "aggressive" spending  until I see it.

Anything regarding spending or lack thereof, I'm attributing to ownership until I have a reason to believe different. We don't have insight into what financial constraints the Angelos brothers have imposed on Elias regarding team payroll. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Anything regarding spending or lack thereof, I'm attributing to ownership until I have a reason to believe different. We don't have insight into what financial constraints the Angelos brothers have imposed on Elias regarding team payroll. 

Sure.

I don't think for a second that ownership is saying, hey you can spend X and Elias is going, naw, I'll spend x-10million.

[spiritof66]

7 hours ago, csgordos said:

Thank you for the AWESOME history lesson.   I never knew anything about this whole post.  Baseball has such an amazing history.  

Then you might not know that the other two prominent syndicates in the late 1890s were Pittsburg/Louisville (I'm pretty sure Pittsburg had no "h" then) and Brooklyn/Baltimore. (New York/Cincinnati was another, sort of.)

With seven (I think that's right) future Hall of Famers, the Orioles finished first or second five times in the National League during the 1890s, including three consecutive pennants from '94 through '96. After the 1898 season, most of the team's stars wound up in Brooklyn. (A couple more followed a year later.) In 1899, with a change in nicknames from Bridegrooms to Superbas, Brooklyn won the pennant while setting a record for wins with a 101-47 mark, an improvement of 45.5 games from their tenth-place finish the season before.

The Louisville-Pittsburg story is more complicated, but after Louisville was eliminated from the National League, as discussed below, most of its best players, including Honus Wagner, ended up with the Pirates, who won four pennants in the following decade.  

The three teams victimized by syndicate baseball were eliminated when the NL lopped off four teams after the 1899 season. Baltimore and Cleveland (and the fourth eliminated team, Washington) got franchises in the American League. Louisville got to make bats.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/today-in-1899-the-brooklyn-superbas-were-born/

ttps://sabr.org/journal/article/barney-dreyfuss-buys-pittsburgh/

[deward]

37 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

True, I would have to go find the actual statement to see if raised or options or ??? were implied. Either way I won't believe in "aggressive" spending  until I see it.

This pretty much where I'm at. I've had people (not necessarily on this site) act like I'm making personal attacks on Elias when I say this, but I'm well past the point of giving this franchise, as a whole, any benefit on the doubt. They're going to have to prove it to me every step of the way, I don't care how many statements are made to the press. I remain unconvinced that John Angelos is committed to making this a winning team. Between the MASN mess and the family feud, I have no confidence that he'll open up the checkbook in any meaningful way. I'll be very happy if I'm proven to be too pessimistic on this.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Elias’ statements have implied more aggressive action this winter than this.   I don’t think he would have volunteered those statements if he didn’t mean them.   But we’ll see.  

Eh, I think you’re putting too much stock into those quotes Froberto Duran. I think he’d like to be more aggressive. But we don’t know what the market will look like between now and then. 
 

I hope he is aggressive but I can’t say I’ll be surprised if this is another underwhelming offseason. Just because he said something doesn’t make it so. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Elias’ statements have implied more aggressive action this winter than this.   I don’t think he would have volunteered those statements if he didn’t mean them.   But we’ll see.  

Well, he has used wording like “we will try”, etc…

[Satyr3206]

I wouldn't bet the Farm they will spend wildly this off season. I think it will be a trade or two and above average spending. Payroll probably around 90 to 100 million.

[foxfield]

I think both sides are right.  I think Elias wants to spend, not blank check, but next step.  I think until ownership shows they will, it is right to be cautious.  But I will add another level.

This off season, should include an extension for Elias.  If he doesn't get some assurances that he can increase payroll, he may be inclined to seek offers elsewhere.  The A's would be stupid to let that happen, but.....it also seems stupid to air family disagreements in court.

This is going to be an epic offseason.  And it is going to set this franchise up.....or it's going to be a firestorm.  IMHO

Edited August 31, 2022 by foxfield

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, he has in mine.

For instance I think he flat out lied when he said Grayson had a chance to make the team out of Spring training.

Seriously?  You've been around long enough to know how to interpret GM-talk.  In what world does "sure... he's got a chance to make the team" mean "we're going to give every possible chance to a guy who's never pitched above AA in an org that is very conservative about promotions and expects to win 65 games"? 

This is a purposely naïve take.  Anyone who has even casually followed the Elias Orioles knew he meant it was highly unlikely.  You have to put things in context, and the 2023 Orioles context is very different than early 2022.

This is almost like Trea hearing MacPhail say they need a big bat and interpreting it as they're obviously going to make an 8/300 offer to Teixiera.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Satyr3206 said:

I wouldn't bet the Farm they will spend wildly this off season. I think it will be a trade or two and above average spending. Payroll probably around 90 to 100 million.

I would be very surprised if the payroll is that high.

Lets just assume none of the vets are traded and they don’t pick up the Lyles option(and are unable to trade him, so they have to pay out the buyout).

You only have Mateo, Mullins, Santander, Tate and Hays in arb seasons.  Between those 5, they probably end up around 20M.

You have the money on the books for Davis, Lyles, Cobb and anyone else that they may still be paying out for. (Trumbo?  ODay?).  This year, that number was around 11M.  
 

For discussion sake, let’s just say that’s 30M total.

5 spots have been filled so far.

Rutschman, Mountcastle, Urias, Stowers, McKenna are all still pre arb.

You then have a pitching staff largely made up of pre arb guys.  
 

If you have another 15 guys that are pre arb, that is 11M or so.  So, we are up into the low 40s in payroll.

I tend to doubt they spend another 50-60M although it’s possible if they want to make a Verlander type splash. 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, he has used wording like “we will try”, etc…

You can't have it both ways.  You can't expect every word to be a literally true prediction of the future, but then expect him to say that absolutely we're going to beat out 29 other teams trying to sign big talent.  They are going to try, and it's a near certainty that some of their targets really want to play somewhere else and they won't get them.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be very surprised if the payroll is that high.

Lets just assume none of the vets are traded and they don’t pick up the Lyles option(and are unable to trade him, so they have to pay out the buyout).

You only have Mateo, Mullins, Santander, Tate and Hays in arb seasons.  Between those 5, they probably end up around 20M.

You have the money on the books for Davis, Lyles, Cobb and anyone else that they may still be paying out for. (Trumbo?  ODay?).  This year, that number was around 11M.  
 

For discussion sake, let’s just say that’s 30M total.

5 spots have been filled so far.

Rutschman, Mountcastle, Urias, Stowers, McKenna are all still pre arb.

You then have a pitching staff largely made up of pre arb guys.  
 

If you have another 15 guys that are pre arb, that is 11M or so.  So, we are up into the low 40s in payroll.

I tend to doubt they spend another 50-60M although it’s possible if they want to make a Verlander type splash. 

 

No way they go from $25M to $100M in one offseason.  That's nearly impossible.

[tntoriole]

Either way, we are right at the crossroads of essentially staying in or falling out.  Twins have now caught us and are on 5 game streak.  All the teams ahead of us are on winning streaks.  If we get swept in Cleveland we are going to probabky be effectively done. 

[Satyr3206]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be very surprised if the payroll is that high.

Lets just assume none of the vets are traded and they don’t pick up the Lyles option(and are unable to trade him, so they have to pay out the buyout).

You only have Mateo, Mullins, Santander, Tate and Hays in arb seasons.  Between those 5, they probably end up around 20M.

You have the money on the books for Davis, Lyles, Cobb and anyone else that they may still be paying out for. (Trumbo?  ODay?).  This year, that number was around 11M.  
 

For discussion sake, let’s just say that’s 30M total.

5 spots have been filled so far.

Rutschman, Mountcastle, Urias, Stowers, McKenna are all still pre arb.

You then have a pitching staff largely made up of pre arb guys.  
 

If you have another 15 guys that are pre arb, that is 11M or so.  So, we are up into the low 40s in payroll.

I tend to doubt they spend another 50-60M although it’s possible if they want to make a Verlander type splash. 

 

This is an educated guess so take it with a grain of salt. I think they keep Lyles. Stability in a rotation with a bunch of young guys is important. I think they trade for a #1 or 2 starter. I also think there is a good possibility they add either a First Baseman and Outfielder in Free Agency.

[Satyr3206]

That should have been First Baseman or Outfielder. Although both would not shock me.