Would you hold Wieters back until the "super-2" deadline?

[Frobby]

Pretty much everyone knows that by holding Matt Wieters back until late April, the Orioles can prevent him from accruing a full year of service time in 2009 and therefore delay his eligibility for free agency until after the 2015 season. The "trigger date" is fixed at 171 days before the end of the regular season.

The second relevant date is the date by which Wieters will no longer accrue enough service time in 2009 to be eligible for arbitration as a "Super-2" after the 2011 season. That date is not fixed. The rule is that, of all players with 2+ years of service time (but less than 3 full years), the top 1/6 in terms of service time are super-2's. The relevant date to be in the top 1/6 varies from year to year, normally falling between 128-140 days of service time. So if Wieters is held back until early June, in all likelihood he will not qualify as a Super-2 after the 2011 season. That's worth a couple of million bucks.

So, if you are the O's, what do you do? Personally, if he has a good spring training and does well at Norfolk out of the gate, I'm not holding him back until early June just to save some money. At that point, I'd just prefer to get him as many major league games as possible under his belt in 2009. But if he struggles in the spring and at Norfolk, in that scenario I'd probably let the June date pass before bringing him up.

[Cire]

It's not about saving money. It's about prolonging his stay for one more year.

[Mackus]

It's not about saving money. It's about prolonging his stay for one more year.

I agree with this. I want to have him for 7 years, but I don't mind paying more of the final 4 of them.

[33rdst]

I still think Drungo said it best last summer...

"Wieters is a good player, a Baltimore Oriole, and in need of major league experience now, or very soon. In 2015 who knows what's going to happen. He might be a monster. Or he might be a bust. He might be an Oriole, or a Rockie or a Mariner or a Padre. He might be playing out his last year tied up in his original contract with the O's, or he might have been extended in 2011.

I can see why I team would play these little contract games, but I think it's an ultraconservative strategy of an organization that doesn't have the confidence it can extend a player 3-4 years down the road, and is scared to lose a few million dollars while wasting ten times that in other areas.

There are tangible benefits to calling him up this year."

The O's should be offering him a Longoria esque extension now, where they hold all the leverage...

No, I would not hold him back.

How about the fact that he is a Boras client. Does that factor into your thinking?

[JamesI]

Assuming he doesn't struggle in AAA, I'd call him up after about 2-3 weeks. Not concern about the Super-2 designation.

[mapierce]

Yes, 'cause I highly doubt he'll extend for a hometown discount. I'd love to see the O's offer him a WOW contract like 10/$80m if he lights it up. Just sayin'.

[Boy Howdy]

I really can't see any reason not to.

[Mackus]

Not to me… It really does not.

What does matter to me, is trying to do an extension as quickly as possible…

The kid is going to produce… there is no doubt about that… basically at his worst he is going to be Varitek in his prime, and at his best is going to be Piazza with actual defense.

You offer him enough up-front guaranteed dollars, that he can not turn it down.

He is playing the most physically demanding position on the diamond, years away from FA…. Even Boras would have to admit, that if the O's offer big guaranteed extension dollars…. That Wieters would be taking a large risk turning it down… (not to mention turning down an immediate raise).

If you can get him to agree to something like Longoria did, then I'm on board. But you've gotta buy out a couple FA years at least. Just extending him through arbitration, basically a 7-year deal, really doesn't accomplish much.

It may be wiser to wait until after 2011, when he's entering arbitration as a Super-2, and then try to lock him in for 6-8 years.

[hoosiers]

I believe you have to play the same game that Boras is playing and keep Wieters in the minors as long as necessary.

It's a shame our previous FO did not do this with Markakis since we would have significantly more leverage in long term contract negoations than we do now.

[Ruzious]

I still think Drungo said it best last summer...

"Wieters is a good player, a Baltimore Oriole, and in need of major league experience now, or very soon. In 2015 who knows what's going to happen. He might be a monster. Or he might be a bust. He might be an Oriole, or a Rockie or a Mariner or a Padre. He might be playing out his last year tied up in his original contract with the O's, or he might have been extended in 2011.

I can see why I team would play these little contract games, but I think it's an ultraconservative strategy of an organization that doesn't have the confidence it can extend a player 3-4 years down the road, and is scared to lose a few million dollars while wasting ten times that in other areas.

There are tangible benefits to calling him up this year."

The O's should be offering him a Longoria esque extension now, where they hold all the leverage...

No, I would not hold him back.

As a fan, I agree with that whole-heartedly. But if I were the O's GM, I would hold him out. It's a rebuilding year anyway, so it's not like not having him around for the first half a month of the season is going to damage the season.

[wildcard]

125 days of service is 46 days into the season. That is the middle of May. I would wait until then to call him up.

[Mad Mark]

If he burns up ST, and then burns up Norfolk, I would be less inclined to worry about Super-2 status. I would still start him at Norfolk--even if he demonstrated the ability to walk on water in ST--just to delay the start of his service clock.

[Sports Guy]

First of all, if Wieters is on the team on Opening Day, AM should be fired immediately. That would be an idiotic move of epic proportions.

As far as waiting for him to be a super 2 or not...I really don't care either way. Just as long as he stays down until mid April, i am fine with whatever else they do, provided he doesn't stay in the minors well into the middle of the year.

As for an extension...It ain't happening...AM isn't going to do it and Boras will not let it happen, assuming the Orioles are going to buy out FA years.

Wieters is his new Tex...His next big time client who will follow him in anything he wants.

[hoosiers]

No, it is a shame that MacPhail did have more forsight, and make signing Markakis his first priority when he took over in mid-2007.

Markakis is still 3 years from FA... right now is the time... you offer him enough years, and guranteed money that he can not risk not signing... not risk coming to camp, and learning he has some degenertive condition... and never be offered those guranteed long-term dollars again.

The first and largest mistake was putting Markakis on the OD roster in 2006. It seems a moot point to me, but it's difficult to counter this, IMO.

The above is more than a little amusing, however. First, AM makes a mistake in failing to sign Markakis that lacks forsight (??), then says "right now is the time" to sign NM to a long term deal. Sometimes people are so eager to criticize AM that they can't express a coherent post.

[tywright]

First of all, if Wieters is on the team on Opening Day, AM should be fired immediately. That would be an idiotic move of epic proportions.

As far as waiting for him to be a super 2 or not...I really don't care either way. Just as long as he stays down until mid April, i am fine with whatever else they do, provided he doesn't stay in the minors well into the middle of the year.

As for an extension...It ain't happening...AM isn't going to do it and Boras will not let it happen, assuming the Orioles are going to buy out FA years.

Wieters is his new Tex...His next big time client who will follow him in anything he wants.

Was it idiotic for the O's to allow Markakis to break camp in 2006?