Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

How many 5'10 first baseman are there in the majors right now?   How many are taller?

To directly answer your question, of the 31 first basement who have logged 500+ innings at 1B, only one, Michael Chavis (PIT) is listed at 5’10”.   There are four listed at 5’11”: Carlos Santana (SEA), Ty France (SEA), Josh Naylor (CLE) and Alfonso Rivas (CHC).   

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Now, we can get away with 1, maybe 2 positions where you get elite defense and little bat.  I’m not saying we can’t.  But the team has to be upgraded in a lot of areas to do it imo.

With Adley already providing elite defense behind the plate, I would think shortstop is the place we need an elite defender most. I'd keep Mateo until Holliday is ready.

[wildcard]

Just now, Frobby said:

To directly answer your question, of the 31 first basement who have logged 500+ innings at 1B, only one, Michael Chavis (PIT) is listed at 5’10”.   There are four listed at 5’11”: Carlos Santana (SEA), Ty France (SEA), Josh Naylor (CLE) and Alfonso Rivas (CHC).   

If the choices to backup Mountcastle at 1B is Westburg or Norby I have to think Westburg has a big advantage with 5 inches more reach.  However that may not be  the choices at all as the off season moves along.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, baltfan said:

There is a pretty long history of athletic shortstops who get better at hitting with more MLB reps, e.g. Ozzie Smith, Andrelton Simmons, and even Jose Iglesias.  That being said, there is a ton of talent in the pipeline and I would move Mateo while his value is high.  

Simmons 2 best OPS seasons were at 27 and 28 years old.  27 is the historic peak age.

Iglesias had the excellent 2020 OPS season for us but it was a very small sample size.  Otherwise, he hasn’t really stood out more as he aged vs younger years.

Ozzie was good in 1987, when everyone was good, at an advanced age and in 1991.

Those 2 seasons were outliers though.

None of these guys are really examples of what you are talking about.  A one off year doesn’t really mean they got better with age.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

With Adley already providing elite defense behind the plate, I would think shortstop is the place we need an elite defender most. I'd keep Mateo until Holliday is ready.

1). You don’t know Mateo will be elite going forward.  As Drungo pointed out, the shift changes could effect his numbers and he has never shown to be elite in the past.  Defense peaks just like offense does.  
 

2). We have other guys who can be very good to elite.  Ortiz is every bit the fielder Mateo is, for example.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

1). You don’t know Mateo will be elite going forward.  As Drungo pointed out, the shift changes could effect his numbers and he has never shown to be elite in the past.  Defense peaks just like offense does.  
 

2). We have other guys who can be very good to elite.  Ortiz is every bit the fielder Mateo is, for example.

Tony hasn’t gone quite as far as saying that Ortiz is as good as Mateo.  I, for one, would need to see that to believe it.   Guys who are rated elite in the minors often don’t look quite as elite when they are stacked up against major league competition.   Heck, Richie Martin was billed as an elite defensive SS when we took him in the Rule 5 draft.   So, I expect Ortiz to be at least a solid major league SS, but I’m not going to assume he’s at Mateo’s level until I see it on a major league field.   

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Tony hasn’t gone quite as far as saying that Ortiz is as good as Mateo.  I, for one, would need to see that to believe it.   Guys who are rated elite in the minors often don’t look quite as elite when they are stacked up against major league competition.   Heck, Richie Martin was billed as an elite defensive SS when we took him in the Rule 5 draft.   So, I expect Ortiz to be at least a solid major league SS, but I’m not going to assume he’s at Mateo’s level until I see it on a major league field.   

Well, I’m not going to assume Mateo is going to repeat this until I see it. 
 

 

[LA2]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I’m not going to assume Mateo is going to repeat this until I see it. 
 

 

The baseball season. He's repeated every month (not game or week) what he did the previous month. Besides, has it looked like "luck" to you?

Edited September 22, 2022 by LA2

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I’m not going to assume Mateo is going to repeat this until I see it. 
 

 

I am not going to assume Mateo will have as good a year statistically.   We know the stats can fluctuate up and down.  But I know what range he has, what kind of arm he has, and what kind of internal clock/decision making ability he has.  I know how he feeds the DP.  I’m willing to assume those things will be about the same next year, and they’ve all been outstanding this year.  Quite honestly, Mateo surprised me, but I have no reason to think the skills aren’t real.  

Ortiz, I need to see.  I did see him for one game at Bowie, but he had no really difficult chances in that game.   He looked very smooth on the routine plays I saw him handle.  

Tony has seen a lot more of Ortiz, and knows more about how to judge prospects anyway.  He’s said the Ortiz is basically just as good except he doesn’t have quite as strong an arm.   So, my working assumption - subject to change after watching Ortiz for a while - is that Ortiz will be at least average defensively for a major league SS, and probably better, but also probably at least a modest step down from Mateo.  If he’s going to outhit Mateo substantially - which I believe he probably will - then I’d choose Ortiz over Mateo as the starting SS if that was the only option available.  But of course there are several other options, such as putting Ortiz at 2B, trading someone, etc.   I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out this winter and next spring.  Should be fascinating.  

 

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, terpoh said:

How do you define "elite" or "non elite?"

Westburg is a top 80 prospect https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

He's not top 10 right now, but top 80 to me is pretty elite. I would imagine that he will go even higher in the post season rankings with how he has played lately. I think Ortiz has a chance to crack top 100 lists as well with how he has played in the 2nd half of 2022. 

 

I'm defining elite as a global top 20 prospect.  There was just a study cited in a thread around here recently that found elite prospects, as such defined, busted about half the time, and that "non-elite" prospects, guys ranked 20-100, which as you point out is still a good prospect, busted 70% of the time.

I know we all like a lot of our prospects.  But the fact is, the majority of them aren't going to work out.  It's why I'm in no hurry to jettison young cheap and productive major leaguers, players who have led to us winning this year, and just handing jobs to prospects because the prospects are "better."

Show me.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Not sure about right now. I googled short first basement and came up with this article from 2009. At the time there were about 20 under 6' but most were not full time 1Bs. In 1994 two players qualified for the batting title at 1B, otherwise it was 0 or 1 most years.

I will say Norby looks a little bigger than 5'10 and Vavra is 6'1.

 

EDIT forgot to include the link:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1200.html

[Pickles]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think you’d be surprised at the rate that 27-28 year olds typically lose speed.  But not in every case, so hopefully Mateo loses little or none.  And I think he’s still at the point where added experience can make up for any physical decline. 

Hell, Mateo's speed has probably already "declined" from his absolute peak.  As you know, playing SS is about a lot more than straight line speed, and while Mateo possesses that in spades, he also possesses all the other skills required.

[Pickles]

20 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How much is Mateo going to be hurt by the shift ban next year?  I see Statcast has him as +3 against RHH, but +5 against (a smaller number of) LHH.  If he's strictly limited to being positioned to the 3B side of second against lefties next year how much does that limit his defensive impact?  Does he go from a +8 SS to a +5 or less?

Also, how weird is it that prior to this season the best defensive shortstop in the league had more MLB innings in the outfield than at short?

I'm not sure anyone commented on this post, but I'd like to.

I think the general consensus, and one I share, is that the shift ban will enhance the value of elite middle infield defenders, such as Mateo.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, LA2 said:

The baseball season. He's repeated every month (not game or week) what he did the previous month. Besides, has it looked like "luck" to you?

No, his defense hasn’t been lucky.  But that doesn’t mean it will carry over.  Manny had one of the greatest defensive seasons ever in 2013 and while he has always been excellent defensively, he never matched that year.

Defense, like offense, can and does peak. Defense can be elite one year and very good the next.  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I’m not going to assume Mateo is going to repeat this until I see it. 
 

 

Let's face it, you have a bias against Mateo.  You are willing to assume that Ortiz is every bit as good as Mateo (Tony rates Mateo's arm as stronger btw) without ever having seen him played for an extended period, but aren't willing to assume that what we saw from Mateo at age 26-27 can be repeated at age 27-28.   Let's face it, you use a sliding scale.

Edited September 22, 2022 by RZNJ