Potential trade for Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

You just want to make statements not ask questions 

Lol. The foolish answers continue.

You are coming in here, sticking your chest out acting like he’s being a child and the fans won’t back him. I’m simply asking you if you would feel the same about Adley. 
 

It’s a simple yes or no question.  My guess is the answer is you would back him, which is why you won’t answer this because you look like a giant hypocrite if you do.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[tntoriole]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol. The foolish answers continue.

You are coming in here, sticking your chest out acting like he’s being a child and the fans won’t back him. I’m simply asking you if you would feel the same about Adley. 
 

It’s a simple yes or no question.  My guess is the answer is you would back him, which is why you won’t answer this because you look like a giant hypocrite if you do.

Block me if you wish .. i am not going to talk with name callers 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Block me if you wish .. i am not going to talk with name callers 

Lol I didn’t call you a name.   But don’t worry, you haven’t been responding anyway and it’s been a waste of my time, so I’m good with you not talking back to me.

[tntoriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Lol I didn’t call you a name.   But don’t worry, you haven’t been responding anyway and it’s been a waste of my time, so I’m good with you not talking back to me.

I am more than fine with it. 

[Birds08]

My bigger issue here is that Burnes should not have gone to the hearing.  OF COURSE the Brewers were going to have to say not nice things about him to win the monetary dispute - that's why good agents/advisors advise their clients not to attend..  I think going shows he received bad advice and/or is immature, and I think that's where it may be a bit of a bad look for him.  I feel bad for the Brewers that they have to feel the brunt of their player being misguided.  Either way, none of this is particularly relevant to the broader conversation here.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Birds08 said:

My bigger issue here is that Burnes should not have gone to the hearing.  OF COURSE the Brewers were going to have to say not nice things about him to win the monetary dispute - that's why good agents/advisors advise their clients not to attend..  I think going shows he received bad advice and/or is immature, and I think that's where it may be a bit of a bad look for him.  I feel bad for the Brewers that they have to feel the brunt of their player being misguided.  Either way, none of this is particularly relevant to the broader conversation here.  

Why was he misguided?   The two outside sources that estimate what Arb-eligible players will get both made estimates that were well over what Burnes was demanding.   So, it’s not like his demand was crazy high.  He lost - those are the risks you take.  

[Just Regular]

The Brewers with Stearns leveled down to consultant will be interesting to watch the next couple years.

Did the strong Stearns branch of the Luhnow tree uniquely have certain capabilities his lieutenants didn't?    I believe he has one more year of contract to fulfill before he's another free agent for Steve Cohen to consider.    

Stearns did basically the same thing Elias did with Josh Hader/Jorge Lopez, and his team wilted down the stretch - that Club house probably has some bad feelings about that handling.

In Burnes' case individually, they already didn't let him pitch in an October 2021 elimination game he wanted to because of Decision Science of Rest type reasons.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2021/10/12/brewers-corbin-burnes-wasnt-ready-start-short-rest-game-4/6101760001/

Milwaukee's pitching results, helped by understanding rest well, have been spectacular in general, but I feel they were too risk averse in that scenario.     Burnes was a good org member saying the 85% type stuff, but in his Cy year, I believe letting Eric Lauer on his mound was tough for him.    I get when nerds do the Game Theory like "we're down 1-2, and we must win both Game 4 and Game 5, so the algorithm says we maximize Game 4 + 5 effectiveness holistically, etc.".

Eric Lauer's 17 Batters Faced with a 0% K-BB didn't cost them a competitive game as it played out.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL202110120.shtml

 

[Birds08]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Why was he misguided?   The two outside sources that estimate what Arb-eligible players will get both made estimates that were well over what Burnes was demanding.   So, it’s not like his demand was crazy high.  He lost - those are the risks you take.  

Misguided to sit in his own hearing.  Not referring to the money.  My understanding is that it is rare for the player to actually attend for exactly this reason -feelings can get hurt which serves no one.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Block me if you wish .. i am not going to talk with name callers 

You literally called an an entire generation entitled and narcissistic in your original post.  

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not Changing anything.

This team will continue to produce high level farm systems as long as Elias is here, even if they trade several prospects. They may drop back temporarily but it won’t take long and guess what, if they do that and do drop back, chances are they are winning at the ML level and that is what actually matters.

You were not talking about winning at the ML level, you specifically were talking about a WS title.  That is quite a change and of course that was my point.  I really don't think we are at odds here.  We both want to see the Orioles to win a WS.  

I challenged your statement that lots of teams make the types of trades referenced earlier (12-18 years of service for 2 good years) and have continued to be successful.  That list includes Houston, the Dodgers, and in the last 20 years or so, not much else.  Boston, Philly, San Fran and others have done it but if you include KC they are really the only small market team to do so.  More importantly, outside of KC, those teams have payrolls the Orioles likely will not.  Tampa Bay and Cleveland are well run teams, but if WS title is the bar they are short.

I didn't challenge that teams do it, I simply said that doing it would only make sense to acquire the last piece.  Somehow you said that was gushing over Elias which I did not do.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

You were not talking about winning at the ML level, you specifically were talking about a WS title.  That is quite a change and of course that was my point.  I really don't think we are at odds here.  We both want to see the Orioles to win a WS.  

I challenged your statement that lots of teams make the types of trades referenced earlier (12-18 years of service for 2 good years) and have continued to be successful.  That list includes Houston, the Dodgers, and in the last 20 years or so, not much else.  Boston, Philly, San Fran and others have done it but if you include KC they are really the only small market team to do so.  More importantly, outside of KC, those teams have payrolls the Orioles likely will not.  Tampa Bay and Cleveland are well run teams, but if WS title is the bar they are short.

I didn't challenge that teams do it, I simply said that doing it would only make sense to acquire the last piece.  Somehow you said that was gushing over Elias which I did not do.

 

 

Actually someone else introduced WS into it. I was responding to them. 
 

The team can absolutely acquire big ticket items via trades and still have good farm systems going forward. This isn’t a debatable topic yet there are people who seem to doubt it. They are wrong.

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Actually someone else introduced WS into it. I was responding to them. 
 

The team can absolutely acquire big ticket items via trades and still have good farm systems going forward. This isn’t a debatable topic yet there are people who seem to doubt it. They are wrong.

Actually, almost the entirety of my responses were to this statement....of yours.

 

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would take a WS title over a good farm system and if you have faith in Elias and his staff, you shouldn't question if we can recover and continue to have a good pipeline of talent coming through.  Lots of teams do this and are successful with it.  No reason the Os can't.

I am not debating the idea that a team, any team, can acquire big ticket items via trades and still have a good farm system going forward.  I don't see anyone doubting that.  They would be wrong.  As are you here.

But anyway, I'll cease.  You proved the point and there are more important topics to debate.  I just want to see the O's win a WS.

[Frobby]

By and large, the players are getting their asses kicked in arbitration this year.  

[MarCakes21]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:19 AM, emmett16 said:

If we can get one of those guys, we are also going to get a fairly high pick when they walk.  That replaces one of the prospects you lost.  We need to do what we can to get a legit topflight starter to lead the rotation and I'd be willing to part with two top 10 prospects (not named Hendersen, Cowser, Rodriguez & Holiday) and another two top 40 prospects to get it done.  If that's not their plan, then I'm confused as to what they are trying to accomplish.

I don't think one of the top 10 guys gets it done.  You might have to headline too with something ML ready (Mullins/Hays/Urias/Mateo - I know varying value there) even though that's less desirable.

[Just Regular]

Jaffe got Szymborski to do some ZiPs on Burnes in his review of the situation.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/milwaukee-burnes-a-bridge/

Elias says Raysian a good deal because it is familiar in the AL East, but Stearns (and now his lieutenant's) Brewers are I feel MLB's best PECOTA comp for what I expect this decade's Orioles to be.     That org had capability, unlike anything Sternberg's Rays have done, to sign Lorenzo Cain and trade for/extend Christian Yelich.     Now they are on the tail end of their shot.

My Power Rankings guess for how many of the 2023 Angels/Brewers fail, and thus sell in July, is: 

One, Neither, Both

Sure its a coinflip if these Orioles contend at all, but the shape of the resources at Elias' disposal, in any kind of good year he should be among the most ferocious trade competitors for any available talent.